Internacional vs Sao Paulo
Match recap
Internacional and Sao Paulo drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Alerrandro scored for Internacional; Calleri replied for Sao Paulo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.02 for Internacional versus 0.90 for Sao Paulo. Internacional sit 16th in the Serie A table while Sao Paulo are 9th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Internacional win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
This clash between Internacional and Sao Paulo promises an intriguing battle, with both sides eager to climb the league table. Internacional, currently lower in the standings, will look to leverage their home advantage and recent attacking form to secure a vital win.
Match factors
Internacional's attacking duo in form
Carbonero and Alan Patrick show strong recent scoring and assist form, boosting home attack potential
Calleri's goal threat for Sao Paulo
Calleri leads Sao Paulo with 10 goals and has scored 3 in last 5 matches, key scoring outlet
Wendell's dual role as defender and assister
Wendell provides defensive stability and 3 assists, a key set-piece and crossing threat
Alerrandro's mixed recent form
Alerrandro has 3 goals and 4 assists this season but limited recent scoring, may impact unpredictably
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or suspensions, full squads expected to start, no impact on key players
The context
In the regular season's ninth round, Internacional sit 17th with 32 points from 30 games, while Sao Paulo hold a more comfortable 9th place with 39 points. Historically, their head-to-head meetings are evenly matched, but recent form and home advantage could tip the scales.
Key insights
- J
Johan Carbonero Balanta
Internacional
Top scorer for Internacional with 7 goals and 4 assists, showing strong recent form and key home attacking threat.
Serie A 26/277 goals and 4 assists in 29 appearances this season
Alan Patrick
Internacional
Creative midfielder with 5 goals and 2 assists, contributing significantly to Internacional’s home scoring.
Serie A 26/275 goals and 2 assists in 25 appearances this season
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
Leading scorer with 10 goals, including 3 in last 5 matches, vital to Sao Paulo’s attack.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 appearances this season
Wendell
Sao Paulo
Defender with 3 assists, providing set-piece threat and defensive stability.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 20 appearances this season
Analysis
Internacional's attacking duo, Johan Carbonero Balanta and Alan Patrick, have been in fine form, contributing significantly to goals and assists this season. Carbonero leads with 7 goals and 4 assists, showing strong recent performances at home. Sao Paulo's main threat comes from Jonathan Calleri, who has netted 10 goals this season, including 3 in the last 5 matches. However, Internacional's defensive resilience and home momentum suggest they can keep Sao Paulo at bay and extend their lead after a 1-0 halftime advantage.
Key facts
- 1.Internacional rank 17th with 32 points from 30 games (W7 D11 L12).
- 2.Sao Paulo rank 9th with 39 points from 30 games (W11 D6 L13).
- 3.Head-to-head record is balanced: 7 wins each and 6 draws in 20 meetings.
- 4.Average goals per head-to-head match is 2.5, evenly split between the teams.
- 5.Johan Carbonero Balanta leads Internacional with 7 goals and 4 assists this season.
- 6.Jonathan Calleri is Sao Paulo's top scorer with 10 goals, including 3 in the last 5 games.
- 7.Predicted total cards in the match is 4, indicating a moderately physical game.
Prediction
We foresee Internacional capitalising on their home form and attacking prowess to secure a 3-0 victory. The halftime score of 1-0 aligns with the predicted fulltime result, indicating a strong start followed by continued dominance. Expect a competitive match with around four cards issued, reflecting the intensity of the encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Internacional
Away — Sao Paulo
The verdict
Internacional look poised to make a statement with a comprehensive win over Sao Paulo. Their blend of attacking flair and defensive solidity at home should prove decisive, while Sao Paulo will need to regroup quickly to bounce back in upcoming fixtures.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:31 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Alerrandro
Assist: Aguirre
Danielzinho
Aguirre
Henrique
Unknown
Alerrandro
Marcos Antônio
Unknown
Paulinho
Yellow Card
Alan Patrick
Paulinho
Luciano
Calleri
Assist: Wendell
Tolói
Yellow Card
Artur
Maia
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
Match Statistics
Internacional
3-5-2Starting XI
- 5R. VillagraM
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 9AlerrandroF
- 10Alan PatrickF
- 12AnthoniG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 25G. MercadoD
- 26A. BernabéiM
- 27PaulinhoM
- 35B. AguirreM
- 41Victor GabrielD
Substitutes
- 6Matheus BahiaD
- 7J. CarboneroF
- 14A. RodríguezM
- 16RonaldoM
- 17TabataF
- 18JuninhoD
- 19R. BorréF
- 20ClaytonD
- 22KauanG
- 29Thiago MaiaM
- 31AllexM
- 32Diego Esser
Sao Paulo
4-1-3-2Starting XI
- 2R. TolóiD
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 10LucianoF
- 18WendellD
- 23RafaelG
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 35SabinoD
- 37ArturM
- 94DanielzinhoM
Substitutes
- 4DóriaD
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 11FerreiraF
- 15João MoreiraD
- 17André SilvaF
- 21Cédric SoaresD
- 30Felipe NegrucciM
- 33LuanM
- 34P. dos SantosF
- 50YoungG
- 56NicolasD
- 80CaulyM
Internacional
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Braian Aguirre | M | 62 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Alerrandro | F | 71 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Alexandro Bernabei | M | 99 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Victor Gabriel | D | 99 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Alan Patrick(C) | F | 81 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Bruno Gomes | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Gabriel Mercado | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | M | 62 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Villagra | M | 99 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulinho Paula | M | 81 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Anthoni | G | 99 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Matheus Bahia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauan | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Clayton Sampaio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juninho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allex | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Maia | M | 37 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Johan Carbonero | F | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Alan Rodríguez | M | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Tabata | F | 8 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ronaldo | M | 18 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Borré | F | 28 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rafael | G | 99 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jonathan Calleri(C) | F | 99 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 5 | 1 | — | — |
| Wendell | D | 99 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 4 | — |
| Rafael Tolói | D | 99 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pablo Maia | M | 97 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Sabino | D | 99 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 71 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Marcos Antônio | M | 71 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danielzinho | M | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Luciano | F | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Artur | M | 97 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tetê | F | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolas Bosshardt | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Negrucci | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Moreira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Young | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dória | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luan Santos | M | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Arboleda | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cédric Soares | D | 28 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Cauly | M | 54 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Ferreirinha | F | 28 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| André Silva | F | 15 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Internacional vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Internacional to win against Sao Paulo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Internacional vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Internacional 3–0 Sao Paulo.
- What were the win probabilities for Internacional vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's model gave Internacional a 72% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 14% chance, and a 14% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 72% confidence — a high-confidence call.