Inter vs Fiorentina
Inter snatch dramatic win over Fiorentina
Two stoppage-time goals turn the tide for Inter in a nail-biting finish.
Fiorentina took the lead through Álex Jiménez's 65th-minute strike, but Inter staged a thrilling late comeback with goals from M. Thuram and a penalty by P. Zieliński deep into stoppage time. The 2-1 victory was a narrow but well-earned result that matched Fipster's confident prediction of a home win, even if the exact scoreline was a bit off.
Outcome probability
Inter and Fiorentina face off in the eighth round of the Serie A season, with Inter looking to extend their impressive run of form. Both teams have shown contrasting fortunes so far, setting the stage for a high-scoring encounter.
Match factors
Inter's attacking trio in strong form
Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram lead scoring with high recent goal rates, supported by Esposito and Çalhanoğlu
Andy Diouf's creative influence
Diouf leads assists with 3 in 5 games, providing key chances and linking well with forwards
Inter's strong home scoring streak
Inter has scored in last 4 home games, averaging 3.75 goals, boosting confidence for multiple scorers
Fiorentina missing key attackers
Fiorentina has no top scorers available and multiple confirmed outs, weakening their offensive threat
The context
Inter currently top the league with 19 points from 7 games, boasting a strong goal difference of +12. Fiorentina, on the other hand, sit 18th with just 4 points from 6 games and a goal difference of -7. This gap in league standings highlights the challenge Fiorentina face against the Nerazzurri.
Key insights
Lautaro Martínez
Inter
Lautaro Martínez is in top form with 4 goals in 5 games, making him a key threat for Inter's attack.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 5 games, 0.8 goals/game
Marcus Thuram
Inter
Marcus Thuram has been consistent, scoring 4 goals in his last 5 games and contributing assists as well.
Serie A 26/274 goals and 2 assists in last 5 games
Andy Diouf
Inter
Andy Diouf's creativity shines through with 3 assists in 5 games, providing crucial chances for Inter's forwards.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 5 games, 0.6 assists/game
Hakan Çalhanoğlu
Inter
Midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu adds goal threat from midfield with 3 goals in 4 games, especially strong at home.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 4 games, 0.75 goals/game
Analysis
Inter's attacking trio, led by Lautaro Martínez and Marcus Thuram, have been in fine form, combining for 8 goals in recent matches. Midfielder Hakan Çalhanoğlu adds further goal threat, especially at home. Fiorentina's offensive options are limited due to key absences, which could hamper their ability to keep pace. Inter's home scoring streak, averaging nearly 4 goals in their last four home games, suggests they will find the net multiple times.
Key facts
- 1.Inter lead the league with 19 points from 7 games.
- 2.Fiorentina are 18th with 4 points from 6 games.
- 3.Inter have a +12 goal difference; Fiorentina have -7.
- 4.Inter have won 11 of 20 head-to-head matches against Fiorentina.
- 5.Inter have scored in their last 4 home games, averaging 3.75 goals per game.
- 6.Lautaro Martínez has 4 goals in 5 games this season.
- 7.Marcus Thuram has scored 4 goals in his last 5 games.
- 8.Andy Diouf leads Inter with 3 assists in 5 games.
Prediction
We expect Inter to take an early lead and maintain control, heading into halftime with a 2-1 advantage. The second half should see more goals, with Inter ultimately prevailing 4-2. The match promises to be an entertaining affair with plenty of attacking action.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Inter
Away — Fiorentina
No standout top scorers flagged for Fiorentina
The verdict
Inter's superior form, goal-scoring ability, and league position make them the clear favourites to win this fixture. Fiorentina will need to tighten up defensively and find a way to boost their attack if they are to avoid defeat. Expect a lively game with Inter coming out on top.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 15:05 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pongračić
Esposito
Álex Jiménez
Assist: Fagioli
Viery
Yellow Card
Álex Jiménez
Mastantuono
Bastoni
Mkhitaryan
Çalhanoğlu
Pellegrino
Njie
Barella
Thuram
Assist: Diouf
Zieliński
Penalty
Match Statistics
Inter
3-5-2Starting XI
- 9M. ThuramF
- 17A. DioufM
- 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
- 22H. MkhitaryanM
- 23N. BarellaM
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 30Carlos AugustoM
- 31Y. BisseckD
- 49I. ProvedelG
- 94F. EspositoF
- 95A. BastoniD
Substitutes
- 1Josep MartínezG
- 5A. StankovićM
- 7P. ZielińskiM
- 8P. SučićM
- 12R. Di GennaroG
- 14A. BonnyF
- 32F. DimarcoD
- 46L. BovioD
- 48M. MosconiF
- 53M. LavelliF
- 99D. SpenceD
Fiorentina
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 5M. PongračićD
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 21ValdeD
- 25A. NjieF
- 27C. NdourM
- 30Franco MastantuonoF
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 43David de GeaG
- 44N. FagioliM
Substitutes
- 2DodôD
- 17João MárioD
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 23BetoF
- 28PoteM
- 29W. GnontoF
- 33VieryD
- 42C. Inao OulaïM
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 72B. MazzeoF
Inter
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Thuram | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 9 | 4 | 2 | — |
| P. Zieliński | M | 12 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| A. Diouf | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| M. Akanji | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Carlos Augusto | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 5 | 1/1 |
| A. Bonny | F | 26 | 7.1 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| H. Çalhanoğlu | M | 78 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | — | 5 | — |
| Y. Bisseck | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| A. Bastoni | D | 77 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| N. Barella | M | 85 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Lavelli | F | 5 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| F. Dimarco | D | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| I. Provedel | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Sučić | M | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| H. Mkhitaryan | M | 78 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| F. Esposito | F | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Josep Martínez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Di Gennaro | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Stanković | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Mosconi | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Spence | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Bovio | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fiorentina
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| N. Fagioli | M | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Álex Jiménez | D | 75 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| David de Gea | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Drăgușin | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Pongračić | D | 51 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodô | D | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. Gnonto | F | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Valde | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| A. Njie | F | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| C. Ndour | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Mateo Pellegrino | F | 83 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Beto | F | 7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Franco Mastantuono | F | 75 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| João Mário | D | 7 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Viery | D | 39 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Brescianini | M | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Mazzeo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Inao Oulaï | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Lezzerini | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pote | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Christensen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Inter vs Fiorentina?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Inter to win against Fiorentina.
- What score did Fipster predict for Inter vs Fiorentina?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Inter 4–2 Fiorentina.
- What were the win probabilities for Inter vs Fiorentina?
- Fipster's model gave Inter a 86% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 7% chance, and a 7% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 86% confidence — a high-confidence call.