Inter vs Cagliari
Match recap
Inter beat Cagliari 3–0 in their Serie A fixture. Thuram, Barella, and Zieliński scored for Inter. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.23 for Inter versus 0.41 for Cagliari. Inter sit 1st in the Serie A table while Cagliari are 14th.
Analysis
Inter Milan welcome Cagliari to San Siro in what promises to be a commanding home performance. With Inter's impressive form and Cagliari struggling away, the stage is set for a comfortable win.
Inter lead the league with 78 points and boast a +49 goal difference, while Cagliari languish in 16th place with just 33 points. Historically, Inter have dominated this fixture, winning 16 of their last 20 encounters and averaging over three goals per match against Cagliari.
Inter's attacking threat remains potent despite injuries to key forwards Lautaro and Thuram. Federico Esposito steps up as the main striker, boasting 7 goals in his last 10 games and excellent home form. Midfield maestro Federico Dimarco, leading with 14 assists and a strong set-piece threat, is expected to unlock Cagliari's defence. Cagliari's away struggles and disciplinary issues further tip the scales in Inter's favour.
Prediction
We confidently predict Inter to take a 1-0 lead into halftime and extend their dominance to a 3-0 fulltime victory. The match will likely see four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. With a 95% confidence level, Inter's home advantage and superior squad depth should secure the win.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Inter missing key attackers Lautaro and Thuram
Both top scorers are injured, shifting scoring burden to Esposito and Esposito's replacements
Dimarco's set-piece and assist threat vs Cagliari defense
Dimarco leads assists and set-piece delivery, exploiting Cagliari's defensive vulnerabilities
Inter's superior home scoring and defensive record
Inter averages 2.8 goals at home and concedes less than 1, while Cagliari struggles away
Inter's strong recent home form supports predicted win
Inter has won majority of recent home games with multiple goal margins
Inter dominated recent encounters with Cagliari
Recent matches show Inter scoring multiple goals and clean sheets against Cagliari
Key Takeaways
In summary, Inter's superior form, home advantage, and key player contributions make a 3-0 victory over Cagliari the most probable outcome. Fans can expect a solid performance with goals and disciplined play to maintain their league lead.
- Inter have won 16 of 20 head-to-head matches against Cagliari.
- Head-to-head matches average 3.3 goals per game.
- Inter lead Serie A with 78 points and a +49 goal difference.
- Cagliari sit 16th with 33 points from 33 games.
- Inter average 2.8 goals per home game this season.
- Cagliari have struggled away, conceding frequently.
- Federico Esposito has scored 7 goals in his last 10 games.
- Federico Dimarco leads Inter with 14 assists this season.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Inter
Away — Cagliari
No standout top scorers flagged for Cagliari
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Esposito
Yellow Card
Borrelli
Yellow Card
Thuram
Assist: Dimarco
Barella
Borrelli
Gaetano
Dimarco
Obert
Sulemana
Mkhitaryan
Thuram
Çalhanoğlu
Zé Pedro
Barella
Zieliński
Assist: Dumfries
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Inter | 38 | 27 | 6 | 5 | +54 | 87 |
| 2 |  Napoli | 38 | 23 | 7 | 8 | +22 | 76 |
| 13 |  Parma | 38 | 11 | 12 | 15 | -18 | 45 |
| 14 |  Cagliari | 38 | 11 | 10 | 17 | -13 | 43 |
| 15 |  Fiorentina | 38 | 9 | 15 | 14 | -9 | 42 |
Match Statistics
Inter
3-5-2Starting XI
- 2D. DumfriesM
- 6S. de VrijD
- 9M. ThuramF
- 13Josep MartínezG
- 20H. ÇalhanoğluM
- 22H. MkhitaryanM
- 23N. BarellaM
- 25M. AkanjiD
- 30Carlos AugustoD
- 32F. DimarcoM
- 94F. EspositoF
Substitutes
- 1Y. SommerG
- 7P. ZielińskiM
- 11Luis HenriqueF
- 12R. Di GennaroG
- 14A. BonnyF
- 15F. AcerbiD
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 17A. DioufM
- 36M. DarmianD
- 48M. MosconiF
- 51C. AlexiouD
Cagliari
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1E. CaprileG
- 2M. PalestraM
- 8M. AdopoM
- 10G. GaetanoM
- 15J. RodríguezD
- 25I. SulemanaM
- 26Y. MinaD
- 29G. BorrelliF
- 32Zé PedroD
- 33A. ObertM
- 94S. EspositoF
Substitutes
- 9S. KılıçsoyF
- 12A. SherriG
- 14A. DeiolaM
- 18O. RaterinkD
- 19A. BelottiF
- 20A. AlbarracínF
- 22A. DossenaD
- 24G. CiocciG
- 27J. LitetaM
- 28G. ZappaD
- 31P. MendyF
- 37Y. TrepyF
- 90M. FolorunshoM
Inter
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Nicolo Barella(C) | M | 89 | 8.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Stefan de Vrij | D | 90 | 8.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Federico Dimarco | M | 76 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Hakan Calhanoglu | M | 85 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Manuel Akanji | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Henrikh Mkhitaryan | M | 76 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Josep Martínez | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcus Thuram | F | 76 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Francesco Pio Esposito | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Carlos Augusto | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Denzel Dumfries | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 3 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Mattia Mosconi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Darmian | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francesco Acerbi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yann Sommer | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raffaele Di Gennaro | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andy Diouf | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christos Alexiou | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Piotr Zielinski | M | 14 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Luís Henrique | F | 14 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Davide Frattesi | M | 10 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ange-Yoan Bonny | F | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
Cagliari
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Michel Adopo | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Adam Obert | M | 76 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Marco Palestra | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 3/8 |
| Gianluca Gaetano | M | 57 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Sebastiano Esposito | F | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/2 |
| Juan Rodríguez | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gennaro Borrelli | F | 57 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Yerry Mina(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sulemana | M | 76 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Elia Caprile | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zé Pedro | D | 87 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alen Sherri | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alberto Dossena | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giuseppe Ciocci | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Semih Kılıçsoy | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustín Albarracín | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joseph Liteta | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Othniël Raterink | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yael Trepy | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Michael Folorunsho | M | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Alessandro Deiola | M | 33 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriele Zappa | D | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paul Mendy | F | 33 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrea Belotti | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |