Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls
Match recap
Inter Miami and New York Red Bulls drew 2–2 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Silvetti and Berterame scored for Inter Miami; Ruvalcaba and Mehmeti replied for New York Red Bulls. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.55 for Inter Miami versus 1.33 for New York Red Bulls.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Inter Miami win
Actual
2–2
Outcome probability
Inter Miami and New York Red Bulls face off in what promises to be an exciting MLS regular season encounter. Both teams have shown offensive prowess, making this a fixture to watch closely.
Match factors
Messi's dominance in home matches
Messi scores 1.33 goals per game at home recently, providing Inter Miami a strong attacking edge
Inter Miami's superior scoring rate
Inter Miami averages 2.79 goals per home game, well above league average, supporting predicted 2-1 win
Suárez's recent goal contributions
Suárez has scored 3 goals in last 5 matches at home, showing strong form
Absence of Mateo Silvetti weakens Inter Miami attack
Silvetti is confirmed out, reducing attacking depth and assist potential
New York Red Bulls rely on Hall for goals
Hall leads Red Bulls with 11 goals, focal point of their attack but less prolific than Miami's top scorers
The context
This match is part of the MLS regular season, round 7. Inter Miami and New York Red Bulls have a well-balanced rivalry with six wins each in their previous 13 meetings, highlighting the competitive nature of this fixture.
Key insights
L. Messi
Inter Miami
Messi's recent home form is exceptional, scoring 1.33 goals per game, providing a strong attacking edge for Inter Miami.
Major League Soccer 26/2723 goals in 25 appearances this season, with a high home scoring rate
L. Suárez
Inter Miami
Suárez has been in good form at home, scoring 3 goals in his last 5 matches, adding firepower to Miami's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 24 appearances this season
J. Hall
New York Red Bulls
Hall is the focal point of New York's attack with 11 goals this season, but Miami's defence will be tested to contain him.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 27 appearances this season
Analysis
The head-to-head history between these sides suggests a tight contest, with an average of 3.8 goals per match indicating attacking intent from both teams. Inter Miami's home scoring rate is impressive, averaging 2.79 goals per game, boosted by Lionel Messi's recent home form where he nets 1.33 goals per game. Luis Suárez also adds firepower with three goals in his last five home matches. New York Red Bulls rely heavily on J. Hall, their leading scorer with 11 goals, but Miami's offensive depth and home advantage give them the edge.
Key facts
- 1.Inter Miami and New York Red Bulls have each won 6 of their 13 meetings, showing a balanced rivalry.
- 2.The average goals per head-to-head match is 3.8, indicating offensive strength from both sides.
- 3.Inter Miami averages 2.79 goals per home game this season, well above the league average.
- 4.Lionel Messi has scored 23 goals this season, with an impressive 1.33 goals per game at home recently.
- 5.Luis Suárez has scored 14 goals this season, including 3 in his last 5 home matches.
- 6.J. Hall is New York Red Bulls' top scorer with 11 goals this season.
Prediction
We predict Inter Miami to secure a 2-1 victory, capitalising on their superior home scoring form and the attacking contributions of Messi and Suárez. New York Red Bulls will pose a threat, but Miami's balanced attack and recent performances suggest they will come out on top.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Inter Miami
Away — New York Red Bulls
The verdict
Expect a closely fought match with plenty of attacking action. Inter Miami's home strengths and key players should see them edge this one, continuing their strong run in the MLS season.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:09 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ruvalcaba
Assist: Hall
Silvetti
Assist: De Paul
Reguilón
Berterame
Cowell
Yellow Card
Goal cancelled
Ruvalcaba
Cowell
Silvetti
Fray
Yellow Card
Mehmeti
Assist: Hall
Fray
Mosquera
Yellow Card
Mehmeti
Forsberg
Match Statistics
Inter Miami
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3ReguilónD
- 7R. De PaulM
- 8T. SegoviaM
- 10L. MessiF
- 16MicaelD
- 17I. FrayD
- 19G. BerterameF
- 24Mateo SilvettiM
- 37M. FalcónD
- 42Y. BrightM
- 97D. St. ClairG
Substitutes
- 2G. LujánD
- 4F. MuraD
- 9L. SuárezF
- 20S. MoralesM
- 22D. AyalaM
- 32N. AllenD
- 34R. Ríos NovoG
- 41D. RuízM
- 56Daniel PinterF
New York Red Bulls
Starting XI
- 3J. Marshall-RuttyD
- 6R. VoloderD
- 7C. CowellF
- 10E. ForsbergM
- 11J. RuvalcabaF
- 12D. NealisD
- 15A. MehmetiM
- 16J. HallF
- 34E. HorvathG
- 48R. DonkorM
- 56M. Dos SantosD
Substitutes
- 4G. BerggrenM
- 5O. ValenciaD
- 13E. Choupo-MotingF
- 20J. MinaD
- 23Joyeux Masanka BungiM
- 37M. SofoF
- 39N. BenedettiM
- 77J. McCarthyG
- 79R. MosqueraF
Inter Miami
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lionel Messi(C) | F | 90 | 9.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | 6/9 |
| Rodrigo de Paul | M | 90 | 7.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1/1 |
| Mateo Silvetti | M | 68 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Yannick Bright | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Germán Berterame | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| Ian Fray | D | 79 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Micael | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Dayne St. Clair | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Telasco Segovia | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Maximiliano Falcón | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Sergio Reguilón | D | 45 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Santiago Morales | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Ruíz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Noah Allen | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rocco Ríos Novo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Ayala | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Facundo Mura | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Pinter | F | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Luis Suarez | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gonzalo Luján | D | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
New York Red Bulls
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adri Mehmeti | M | 87 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Ronald Donkor | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Jorge Ruvalcaba | F | 66 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Ethan Horvath | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julian Hall | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | 2 | — | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| Jahkeele Marshall-Rutty | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Emil Forsberg(C) | M | 87 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Dylan Nealis | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cade Cowell | F | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matthew Dos Santos | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Robert Voloder | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Juan Mina | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John McCarthy | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nehuen Benedetti | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Omar Valencia | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joyeux Masanka Bungi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Mosquera | F | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Eric Maxim Choupo-Moting | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustav Berggren | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohammed Sofo | F | 24 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Inter Miami to win against New York Red Bulls.
- What score did Fipster predict for Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Inter Miami 2–1 New York Red Bulls.
- What were the win probabilities for Inter Miami vs New York Red Bulls?
- Fipster's model gave Inter Miami a 65% chance of winning, New York Red Bulls a 17% chance, and a 18% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 65% confidence — a medium-confidence call.