Ilves vs HNK Rijeka

UEFA Europa Conference League3rd Qualifying Round
Full Time
11
HT: 00
Ref: Genc Nuza, KosovoRatinan Stadion, Tampere (Tammerfors) · 16,820 cap
Fipster Pick
Home WinlowMiss
Full-time storyUpset

Ilves and Rijeka share spoils in tight draw

A late exchange of goals sees both sides settle for a point in the Europa Conference League.

Ilves took the lead through S. Baranov's strike in the 64th minute, only for J. Lasickas to level for HNK Rijeka six minutes later. The 1-1 draw defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow Ilves win, leaving both teams to settle for a share of the points.

Qualifying — two-legged tieLeg 2 of 2Decisive leg
First leg:
HNK Rijeka 1 0 Ilves
Aggregate:
HNK Rijeka 2 1 Ilves
Advances:
HNK Rijeka
FıpsterSelf-Score Card
Appropriate✗ Miss
Fipster's Pick
10
HT 1–0
Final Result
11
HT 0–0
18%Poor
F
OutcomeExact ScoreBTTSOver/Under 2.5Halftime
Fipster's self review14 Aug 2026

Outcome probability

Ilves 35%Draw 33%HNK Rijeka 32%

The upcoming 3rd Qualifying Round match between Ilves and HNK Rijeka promises a tight contest, with both sides showing solid form in this competition. Fans can expect a tactical battle with a slight edge to Ilves.

Match factors

Statistical Edgemedium

Ilves strong home scoring form

Ilves averages 3 goals per home game recently, showing strong attacking potential at home despite no top scorers listed.

Form Momentumhigh

HNK Rijeka on winning streak

HNK Rijeka has won their last 3 matches with clean sheets, indicating strong form and defensive solidity.

Injury Impacthigh

No confirmed injuries for either team

Both teams have no confirmed out players, so full squads are likely available, maintaining tactical options.

Tactical Advantagemedium

Ilves home advantage vs Rijeka's away record

Ilves scores 3 goals per home game while Rijeka scores 1 away, suggesting Ilves may control attacking phases at home.

The context

Ilves have played five matches in this competition so far, recording two wins, one draw, and two losses, scoring four goals and conceding three. Meanwhile, HNK Rijeka remain unbeaten in three matches here, boasting three wins and a perfect defensive record with zero goals conceded. The teams have met once before, with Rijeka claiming the sole victory.

Key facts

  1. 1.Ilves have played 5 matches in this competition (W2 D1 L2, GF 4 / GA 3).
  2. 2.HNK Rijeka have played 3 matches in this competition (W3 D0 L0, GF 3 / GA 0).
  3. 3.Ilves average 3 goals per home game recently, showing strong attacking potential.
  4. 4.HNK Rijeka have won their last 3 matches with clean sheets, indicating strong defensive form.
  5. 5.In 1 head-to-head meeting, Ilves have won 0, HNK Rijeka have won 1, with 0 draws.
  6. 6.No confirmed injuries for either team, so full squads likely available.

Analysis

Ilves have demonstrated strong attacking potential at home, averaging three goals per game recently, while Rijeka have been rock solid defensively, winning their last three matches with clean sheets. Despite Rijeka's unbeaten run and defensive resilience, Ilves' home scoring form and ability to control attacking phases suggest they may edge this encounter. Level after 90 minutes and Fipster expects extra time to settle nothing either — this one has penalty shootout written all over it, with Ilves tipped to hold their nerve from the spot. The graded markets reflect the score at the end of extra time, and any penalty-shootout call is a who-goes-through tip, not a scored prediction.

Player Insights

Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists

HomeIlves

No standout best passers flagged for Ilves

AwayHNK Rijeka

A. Oreč

A. Oreč

Defender

HNK Rijeka

Total Passes
36
5 played
5 starts
90 mins
~18 mins/game
A. Majstorović

A. Majstorović

Defender

HNK Rijeka

Total Passes
35
5 played
5 starts
90 mins
~18 mins/game
A. Barco

A. Barco

Defender

HNK Rijeka

Total Passes
35
5 played
5 starts
90 mins
~18 mins/game

Prediction

The most likely outcome is a narrow 1-0 win for Ilves, with the same scoreline predicted at halftime. While the confidence in this call is low due to limited data, the probabilities favour a home victory by a single goal, reflecting Ilves' home advantage and attacking form.

The verdict

Expect a closely fought match with Ilves just about doing enough to claim a 1-0 victory. Rijeka's defensive solidity will keep things tight, but Ilves' home scoring edge should see them through this qualifying round tie.