Iceland vs Bulgaria
Óskarsson's hat-trick heroics seal Iceland win
Iceland dominate Bulgaria with a commanding 3-0 victory in the Nations League.
Iceland cruised to a 3-0 victory over Bulgaria, powered by O. Óskarsson's brace and a late goal from M. Ellertsson. Despite missing a penalty at 84', Óskarsson's earlier strikes at 37' and 60' set the tone for a comfortable win. Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a home win was on the money, though the margin was more emphatic than expected.
Outcome probability
Iceland and Bulgaria face off in a League C fixture where both teams have shown mixed fortunes so far. Iceland remain unbeaten with a win and a draw, while Bulgaria have yet to secure a victory. This match promises a close contest with a slight edge to the home side.
Match factors
Iceland's attacking duo in strong form
Andri Guðjohnsen's 2 goals in last 2 games and Hákon Haraldsson's assist form give Iceland a creative and scoring edge
Bulgaria's defensive leader also creates chances
Dimitar Velkovski leads Bulgaria in assists and tackles, providing both defensive stability and attacking support
Iceland's recent scoring streak at home and away
Iceland has scored in last 2 matches both home and away, showing consistent offensive threat
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so predicted lineups likely to feature top performers
The context
In this League C round 3 match, Iceland have played two games, winning one and drawing one, scoring four goals and conceding just one. Bulgaria, on the other hand, have struggled to find form with no wins, one draw, and one loss, scoring once and conceding twice. Both teams are looking to improve their standing in the competition.
Key insights
Andri Guðjohnsen
Iceland
Andri Guðjohnsen's scoring rate of 1 goal per game and high match ratings make him Iceland's key attacking threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/272 goals in last 2 games in this competition
Hákon Haraldsson
Iceland
Hákon Haraldsson's assist rate and high passing volume highlight his creative influence for Iceland.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist this season in 1 appearance
Dimitar Valentinov Velkovski
Bulgaria
Velkovski provides defensive stability and attacking support as Bulgaria's top assister and tackler.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist this season in 1 appearance
Analysis
The probabilities for this match are finely balanced, with home and away wins almost equally likely and draws slightly less so. The most probable scoreline overall is a 1-1 draw, but a 2-1 win for Iceland is a close second. Iceland's attacking duo, Andri Guðjohnsen and Hákon Haraldsson, have been in strong form, contributing goals and assists respectively. Bulgaria's defensive leader, Dimitar Velkovski, offers both defensive solidity and attacking support, making this a tactical battle. Discipline is expected to be moderate, with around three cards likely in total.
Key facts
- 1.Iceland are unbeaten in this competition with 1 win and 1 draw.
- 2.Bulgaria have yet to win, with 1 draw and 1 loss so far.
- 3.Iceland have scored 4 goals and conceded only 1 in their two matches.
- 4.Bulgaria have scored 1 goal and conceded 2 in their two matches.
- 5.The most likely total cards count is 3, indicating moderate discipline.
- 6.Andri Guðjohnsen has scored 2 goals in the last 2 games for Iceland.
- 7.Hákon Haraldsson leads Iceland with 1 assist in 1 game.
- 8.Dimitar Velkovski is Bulgaria's top assister and defensive leader.
Prediction
Given the slight edge in recent form and attacking prowess, Iceland are predicted to win 2-1. The home side's ability to score consistently and create chances through Guðjohnsen and Haraldsson should be enough to overcome Bulgaria's resilient defence led by Velkovski.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Iceland
Away — Bulgaria
No standout top scorers flagged for Bulgaria
The verdict
While the match is expected to be closely contested, Iceland's recent unbeaten run and attacking momentum give them the nod in this League C fixture. Bulgaria will no doubt fight hard, but the hosts are favoured to secure a narrow victory.
Prediction generated 29 Sep 2026, 20:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Magnússon
Yellow Card
Petkov
Yellow Card
Velkovski
Yellow Card
Ellertsson
Yellow Card
Óskarsson
Assist: Haraldsson
Sigurðsson
Gunnarsson
Petkov
Gruev
Iliev
Yellow Card
Óskarsson
Assist: Anderson
Baldursson
Þorsteinsson
Chandarov
Rusev
Petkov
Yellow Card
Haraldsson
Iliev
Óskarsson
Missed Penalty
Ellertsson
Assist: Óskarsson
Match Statistics
Iceland
4-4-1-1Starting XI
- 6A. BaldurssonM
- 7H. HaraldssonM
- 8Í. Bergmann JóhannessonM
- 9O. ÓskarssonF
- 11J. ÞorsteinssonM
- 12H. ValdimarssonG
- 17A. GunnarssonD
- 18M. AndersonD
- 19M. EllertssonD
- 21A. SigurðssonM
- 23H. MagnússonD
Substitutes
- 1R. RúnarssonG
- 2L. TómassonD
- 3D. GrétarssonD
- 4V. PálssonD
- 5Í. ÞorvaldssonF
- 10G. SigurðssonM
- 13A. EinarssonG
- 14B. WillumssonF
- 15D. GuðjohnsenF
- 16S. ÞórðarsonM
- 20Þ. HelgasonM
- 22A. GuðjohnsenF
Bulgaria
4-4-1-1Starting XI
- 1D. NaumovG
- 4I. GruevM
- 5K. DimitrovD
- 8A. KraevM
- 9A. IlievF
- 11G. RusevM
- 13S. VelkovD
- 14A. ChandarovM
- 19I. TuritsovD
- 20L. PetkovM
- 21D. VelkovskiD
Substitutes
- 2Y. StoyanovM
- 3A. HristovD
- 6E. TsenovD
- 7P. PanayotovM
- 10Z. DimitrovF
- 12D. MitovG
- 15H. PetrovD
- 16M. PetkovF
- 17V. NikolovF
- 18K. BalovF
- 22K. StoyanovM
- 23A. BozhevG
Iceland
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| O. Óskarsson | F | 90 | 9.3 | 2 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 2 | — |
| H. Haraldsson | M | 82 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| M. Anderson | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| A. Gunnarsson | D | 46 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Þorsteinsson | M | 62 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 3/5 |
| L. Tómasson | D | 8 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Pálsson | D | 28 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Í. Bergmann Jóhannesson | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Ellertsson | D | 90 | 7.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| H. Magnússon | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Grétarsson | D | 44 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Baldursson | M | 62 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| G. Sigurðsson | M | 28 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sigurðsson | M | 46 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| H. Valdimarsson | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Guðjohnsen | F | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| A. Einarsson | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Guðjohnsen | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Þ. Helgason | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Willumsson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Þórðarson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Í. Þorvaldsson | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Rúnarsson | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Bulgaria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Dimitrov | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Petkov | F | 35 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Z. Dimitrov | F | 23 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| A. Chandarov | M | 67 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| V. Nikolov | F | 7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Naumov | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Gruev | M | 55 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Velkov | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Kraev | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| E. Tsenov | D | 35 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| D. Velkovski | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| P. Panayotov | M | 23 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Petkov | M | 55 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Iliev | F | 83 | 5.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| I. Turitsov | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| G. Rusev | M | 67 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/5 |
| K. Stoyanov | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Balov | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Hristov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Mitov | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Petrov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Stoyanov | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bozhev | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Iceland vs Bulgaria?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Iceland to win against Bulgaria.
- What score did Fipster predict for Iceland vs Bulgaria?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Iceland 2–1 Bulgaria.
- What were the win probabilities for Iceland vs Bulgaria?
- Fipster's model gave Iceland a 35% chance of winning, Bulgaria a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.