Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City
Wallem's last-gasp strike stuns Houston
St. Louis City snatch a dramatic 1-0 win deep into stoppage time.
In a match that looked destined for a goalless draw, C. Wallem broke the deadlock for St. Louis City with a 90+7' winner, delivering a shock to Houston Dynamo on their home turf. This narrow victory defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a 2-1 home win, proving once again that in football, the final whistle can bring the unexpected.
Outcome probability
As the regular season draws to a close, Houston Dynamo and St. Louis City face off in what promises to be a closely contested affair. Both teams sit just a point apart in the league standings, making this match a crucial battle for positioning.
Match factors
Impact of Guilherme's Doubtful Status
Guilherme's lower-body injury casts doubt on Houston's attacking potency; if absent, scoring burden shifts to Bogusz
Rafael Navarro's Scoring Efficiency
Navarro's 8 goals in 11 games (0.73 goals/game) outpaces league average attackers, posing a significant threat
Houston's Midfield Creativity
Jack McGlynn and Guilherme provide strong assist potential, enhancing Houston's chance creation
St. Louis City's Recent Scoring Dip
Despite strong season stats, St. Louis has struggled to score consistently in last 5 matches, impacting confidence
Defensive Doubts for Houston
Doubtful defenders Felipe Andrade and Herrera could weaken Houston's defensive solidity if unavailable
The context
St. Louis City currently holds 4th place with a slightly better goal difference than Houston Dynamo, who are 5th. Their head-to-head record is fairly balanced, with St. Louis City leading narrowly with four wins to Houston's three in ten encounters. This fixture could tip the scales in the final league table.
Key insights
Mateusz Bogusz
Houston Dynamo
Bogusz is a consistent scorer with 8 goals this season and strong home scoring rate, making him a key threat for Houston.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 29 apps, 0.28 goals/game
Guilherme
Houston Dynamo
Guilherme leads Houston with 15 goals and 8 assists but is doubtful due to a lower-body injury, which could affect Houston's attacking potency.
Major League Soccer 26/2715 goals in 29 apps, 0.52 goals/game (doubtful)
Rafael Navarro
St. Louis City
Navarro's 8 goals in 11 games at a 0.73 goals per game rate make him a significant offensive threat for St. Louis City.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 11 apps, 0.73 goals/game
Jack McGlynn
Houston Dynamo
McGlynn's 5 assists in 16 games highlight his role as a key playmaker, boosting Houston's chance creation.
Major League Soccer 26/275 assists in 16 apps, 0.31 assists/game
Analysis
The predicted halftime score of 1-1 suggests an open and competitive first half, with both teams finding the net. Houston Dynamo's Mateusz Bogusz, a consistent scorer with eight goals this season, is expected to play a key role, especially if Guilherme remains doubtful due to injury. St. Louis City's Rafael Navarro, boasting an impressive 0.73 goals per game, poses a significant threat and is likely to keep the Dynamo defence on their toes. Houston's midfield creativity, led by Jack McGlynn, could be decisive in unlocking St. Louis City's defence, particularly if the visitors continue their recent scoring dip.
Key facts
- 1.St. Louis City leads head-to-head with 4 wins in 10 matches against Houston Dynamo's 3 wins.
- 2.Both teams are level on points, with St. Louis City holding a better goal difference.
- 3.Historical matches between these sides average 2.5 goals, aligning with the predicted 2-1 scoreline.
- 4.Mateusz Bogusz has scored 8 goals in 29 appearances this season, showing strong home form.
- 5.Rafael Navarro boasts 8 goals in 11 games, an impressive 0.73 goals per game ratio.
- 6.Jack McGlynn has provided 5 assists in 16 games, key to Houston's creativity.
- 7.Houston Dynamo face doubts over Guilherme's fitness, impacting their attacking options.
- 8.St. Louis City has struggled to score consistently in their last five matches.
Prediction
We anticipate Houston Dynamo to secure a 2-1 victory by fulltime, edging ahead in the second half after a balanced first 45 minutes. The home side's ability to capitalise on chances and maintain defensive solidity, despite some doubts in defence, should be enough to see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Houston Dynamo
Away — St. Louis City
The verdict
This match promises a tight contest with quality on both sides, but Houston Dynamo's home advantage and key player contributions give them the slight edge. Expect a spirited encounter with goals from both teams and a narrow win for the Dynamo to round off the regular season.
Prediction generated 2 Nov 2026, 04:56 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Artur
Ennali
Ostrák
Foster
Andrade
Jeong Sang-Bin
Halter
Yellow Card
Navarro
Polvara
Bouzat
Wallem
Assist: Mățan
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 34 | 19 | 7 | 8 | +40 | 64 |
| 3 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 33 | 14 | 10 | 9 | +8 | 52 |
| 4 |  St. Louis City | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +10 | 51 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 33 | 14 | 9 | 10 | +1 | 51 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 33 | 12 | 11 | 10 | +13 | 47 |
Match Statistics
Houston Dynamo
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 6ArturM
- 9L. FosterF
- 11L. EnnaliM
- 19M. BoguszM
- 20GuilhermeM
- 21F. NegriD
- 30A. BouzatM
- 31J. BondG
- 34A. ReschD
- 36Felipe AndradeD
Substitutes
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 14D. HolmesM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 37G. RiveraM
St. Louis City
3-4-3Starting XI
- 5L. MacNaughtonD
- 6C. WallemM
- 7T. OstrákF
- 8C. DurkinM
- 9Rafael NavarroF
- 14T. TotlandM
- 21D. PolvaraM
- 27F. FallD
- 32T. BaumgartlD
- 39B. LundtG
- 77Jeong Sang-BinF
Substitutes
- 4M. FallD
- 11S. BecherF
- 18C. BrunetM
- 23A. MățanM
- 24D. EdelmanM
- 31C. OlivaresG
- 42D. DownsF
- 91Z. ZengueM
- 99J. OrozcoD
Houston Dynamo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 6 | 2 | 5 | 2/4 |
| A. Resch | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Bond | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. McGuire | F | 20 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Artur | M | 63 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| F. Negri | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| A. Ibrahim | F | 27 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| D. Holmes | M | 20 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
| L. Ennali | M | 63 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| H. Herrera | M | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Bouzat | M | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| M. Bogusz | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 4 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| N. Markanich | F | 1 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Andrade | D | 70 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Foster | F | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Lucas Halter | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Rivera | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antônio Carlos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Samassékou | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Gillingham | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
St. Louis City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Lundt | G | 90 | 8.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Fall | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| C. Durkin | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| L. MacNaughton | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Baumgartl | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Polvara | M | 83 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| C. Wallem | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| D. Downs | F | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Mățan | M | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Edelman | M | 7 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Becher | F | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeong Sang-Bin | F | 74 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| T. Totland | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| T. Ostrák | F | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Rafael Navarro | F | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| C. Brunet | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Olivares | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Orozco | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Fall | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Zengue | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Houston Dynamo to win against St. Louis City.
- What score did Fipster predict for Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Houston Dynamo 2–1 St. Louis City.
- What were the win probabilities for Houston Dynamo vs St. Louis City?
- Fipster's model gave Houston Dynamo a 46% chance of winning, St. Louis City a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 46% confidence — a medium-confidence call.