Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City
Sporting Kansas City shut out Houston Dynamo
André Luiz and C. Harris secure a solid 2-0 win away from home.
Sporting Kansas City delivered a disciplined performance to claim a 2-0 victory over Houston Dynamo, with André Luiz opening the scoring in the 27th minute and C. Harris doubling the lead just before half-time. The clean sheet and two-goal margin underline their control throughout the match. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 3-1 home win, proving the visitors' defence tougher than expected.
Outcome probability
Houston Dynamo and Sporting Kansas City face off in what promises to be a lively MLS encounter. With Houston sitting comfortably near the top of the table and Sporting Kansas City struggling near the bottom, the stage is set for a clash of contrasting fortunes.
Match factors
Houston Dynamo's potent home attack
Houston's top scorers Guilherme and Bogusz have strong home scoring form, aligning with predicted 3 goals
Guilherme's dual threat as scorer and assister
Guilherme leads Houston in goals (12) and assists (6), making him central to attack
Sporting KC's scoring struggles recently
Top scorer Joveljić has no goals in last 5 games, reflecting team's low recent scoring
Sporting KC missing key midfielder Jacob Davis
Davis is confirmed out, weakening midfield creativity and assist potential
Jack McGlynn's creative midfield role
McGlynn's 5 assists and high passing volume make him a key playmaker for Houston
The context
Houston Dynamo currently hold 43 points from 25 games, placing them 2nd in the league, while Sporting Kansas City languish in 15th with just 18 points from 24 matches. The Dynamo boast a positive goal difference of +4, starkly contrasting with Sporting's -33. Historically, these teams have met 20 times, with Sporting Kansas City narrowly ahead in wins (9 to 7) and an average of 2.7 goals per match.
Key insights
Guilherme
Houston Dynamo
Leads team scoring with 12 goals and 6 assists, showing strong home form and central to attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals and 6 assists in 23 apps
Mateusz Bogusz
Houston Dynamo
Consistent goal threat with 5 goals, including 2 in last 3 home games, low disciplinary risk.
Major League Soccer 26/275 goals in 22 apps
Jack McGlynn
Houston Dynamo
Creative midfielder with 5 assists, high passing volume, key to Houston's attacking play.
Major League Soccer 26/275 assists in 16 apps
Dejan Joveljić
Sporting Kansas City
Top scorer with 8 goals but currently in a goal drought, no goals in last 5 games.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 19 apps
Analysis
Houston's attacking threat is spearheaded by Guilherme, who leads the team with 12 goals and 6 assists this season, showing excellent form at home. Mateusz Bogusz also contributes significantly with 5 goals and a strong recent scoring run. Sporting Kansas City's main striker, Dejan Joveljić, has struggled to find the net recently, failing to score in his last five games, which reflects the team's broader scoring difficulties. Additionally, Sporting will miss key midfielder Jacob Davis, weakening their creative options. Houston's creative midfielder Jack McGlynn, with 5 assists, is expected to orchestrate chances effectively.
Key facts
- 1.Houston Dynamo rank 2nd with 43 points from 25 games (W13 D4 L8).
- 2.Sporting Kansas City are 15th with 18 points from 24 games (W5 D3 L16).
- 3.Houston Dynamo have a goal difference of +4; Sporting Kansas City have -33.
- 4.In 20 meetings, Houston Dynamo have won 7, Sporting Kansas City 9, with 4 draws.
- 5.Guilherme leads Houston with 12 goals and 6 assists this season.
- 6.Dejan Joveljić is Sporting's top scorer with 8 goals but has no goals in last 5 games.
- 7.Jacob Davis is out for Sporting Kansas City, weakening their midfield.
- 8.Jack McGlynn has 5 assists and is a key creative player for Houston.
Prediction
The prediction is a 3-1 victory for Houston Dynamo, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The match is expected to feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter. Houston's superior form, goal difference, and home attacking prowess make them the clear favourites to secure all three points.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Houston Dynamo
Away — Sporting Kansas City
The verdict
In summary, Houston Dynamo's strong league standing and attacking capabilities should see them comfortably overcome Sporting Kansas City. The visitors' recent struggles and injury setbacks add to the challenge. Expect a confident Dynamo performance culminating in a 3-1 win.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 02:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.158
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Reynolds
Yellow Card
André Luiz
Assist: Afrifa
Herrera
Red Card
Calheira
Yellow Card
André Luiz
Yellow Card
Harris
Assist: André Luiz
Antônio Carlos
Yellow Card
Negri
André Luiz
Afrifa
Yellow Card
Ibrahim
Bouzat
Ennali
Reynolds
Harris
Calheira
Afrifa
Bogusz
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | +33 | 50 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +10 | 45 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | +2 | 44 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | +13 | 41 |
| 14 |  Minnesota United FC | 27 | 7 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 29 |
| 15 |  Sporting Kansas City | 26 | 6 | 3 | 17 | -32 | 21 |
Match Statistics
Houston Dynamo
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 6ArturM
- 11L. EnnaliD
- 16H. HerreraM
- 19M. BoguszM
- 20GuilhermeF
- 21F. NegriD
- 24A. IbrahimM
- 30A. BouzatF
- 31J. BondG
Substitutes
- 4M. SaracchiD
- 9L. FosterF
- 14D. HolmesM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 22M. AranaM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
Sporting Kansas City
4-4-2Starting XI
- 4L. JohnsenM
- 11André LuizM
- 13J. ReynoldsD
- 14C. HarrisM
- 15Jansen MillerD
- 17S. AfrifaF
- 18E. KarićD
- 19T. CalheiraF
- 20K. AgyabengM
- 28Wyatt MeyerD
- 30S. ClevelandG
Substitutes
- 1J. PulskampG
- 2I. JamesD
- 16J. BartlettD
- 22Z. BassongD
- 24R. RamosF
- 29S. ReidF
- 33O. WolffM
- 93M. SuleymanovF
- 99J. ReidD
Houston Dynamo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Halter | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Guilherme | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 6 | 1 | 6 | 1/1 |
| Antônio Carlos | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Artur | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Bogusz | M | 82 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | — |
| D. McGuire | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Ennali | D | 71 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| Felipe Andrade | D | 34 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Bond | G | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bouzat | F | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| F. Negri | D | 56 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| M. Saracchi | D | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| L. Foster | F | 19 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Ibrahim | M | 71 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/2 |
| M. Arana | M | 19 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Herrera | M | 48 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| B. Gillingham | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Markanich | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Holmes | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Samassékou | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sporting Kansas City
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Luiz | M | 62 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 3 | 2/5 |
| C. Harris | M | 72 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/1 |
| S. Cleveland | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jansen Miller | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Karić | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Wyatt Meyer | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Johnsen | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| O. Wolff | M | 18 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Agyabeng | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| Z. Bassong | D | 10 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bartlett | D | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Reynolds | D | 72 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Afrifa | F | 80 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| S. Reid | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| R. Ramos | F | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Calheira | F | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| J. Reid | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Pulskamp | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Suleymanov | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. James | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Houston Dynamo to win against Sporting Kansas City.
- What score did Fipster predict for Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Houston Dynamo 3–1 Sporting Kansas City.
- What were the win probabilities for Houston Dynamo vs Sporting Kansas City?
- Fipster's model gave Houston Dynamo a 95% chance of winning, Sporting Kansas City a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.