Houston Dynamo vs Seattle Sounders
Match recap
Seattle Sounders beat Houston Dynamo 1–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Rothrock scored for Seattle Sounders. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.94 for Houston Dynamo versus 1.40 for Seattle Sounders. Houston Dynamo sit 5th in the Major League Soccer table while Seattle Sounders are 7th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-2 Seattle Sounders win
Actual
0–1
Outcome probability
Houston Dynamo and Seattle Sounders face off in the sixth round of the regular season, with both sides eager to assert their place in the league standings. Seattle aims to extend their positive away scoring streak, while Houston looks to shore up their defence and capitalise on home advantage.
Match factors
Seattle's attacking depth despite Rothrock absence
Seattle loses top scorer Rothrock (out), but Joveljić's strong recent scoring and Roldan's midfield goals provide attacking options
Guilherme's dominance in Houston attack
Guilherme leads Houston with 14 goals and 6 assists, showing strong form and home scoring ability
Doubtful status of key Houston midfielder Ennali
Ennali is doubtful due to injury, capping his scoring and assist probability; his presence would boost creativity
Seattle's positive scoring streak away from home
Seattle has scored in last 5 away games, showing strong offensive momentum on the road
Houston's defensive vulnerabilities at home
Houston has conceded in last 5 home games, indicating defensive frailty Seattle can exploit
The context
Seattle Sounders currently sit 7th in the league with 41 points, while Houston Dynamo are slightly ahead in 5th place with 45 points. Historically, Seattle have dominated this fixture, winning 14 of the 19 head-to-head meetings, with Houston managing just one victory and four draws. This season, Seattle have been consistent on the road, scoring in their last five away matches.
Key insights
Dejan Joveljić
Seattle Sounders
Joveljić has been clinical away from home, scoring 4 goals in 5 appearances, providing Seattle with a sharp attacking edge.
Major League Soccer 26/274 goals in 5 appearances, 0.8 goals/game
Guilherme
Houston Dynamo
Guilherme dominates Houston's attack with 14 goals and 6 assists, showing strong form and home scoring ability.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals and 6 assists in 27 appearances, 0.52 goals/game
Cristian Roldan
Seattle Sounders
Roldan adds creativity and goal threat from midfield, contributing 5 goals this season to support Seattle's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/275 goals in 20 appearances, 0.25 goals/game
Analysis
Seattle's attacking options remain potent despite the absence of their top scorer Paul Rothrock, who netted once in this fixture. Dejan Joveljić's impressive recent form, with four goals in five appearances, alongside Cristian Roldan's midfield contributions, provide Seattle with multiple threats. Houston's Guilherme leads their attack with 14 goals and 6 assists this season, but the Dynamo's defensive vulnerabilities at home have seen them concede in their last five home games, a weakness Seattle are likely to exploit.
Key facts
- 1.Seattle Sounders have won 14 of 19 head-to-head matches against Houston Dynamo.
- 2.Seattle are 7th in the league with 41 points; Houston Dynamo are 5th with 45 points.
- 3.Seattle have scored in their last 5 away games this season.
- 4.Houston Dynamo have conceded in their last 5 home games, indicating defensive issues.
- 5.Paul Rothrock scored in this fixture for Seattle Sounders.
- 6.Guilherme leads Houston Dynamo with 14 goals and 6 assists this season.
- 7.The predicted final score is Seattle Sounders 2, Houston Dynamo 1.
Prediction
The prediction favours an away win for Seattle Sounders with a final scoreline of 2-1. The halftime score is expected to be 0-1, consistent with Seattle's ability to start strong on the road. The match is also likely to see around three cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Houston Dynamo
Away — Seattle Sounders
The verdict
Expect a tightly contested match where Seattle's attacking depth and recent away form give them the edge over Houston's home side. While Houston's Guilherme will be a key player to watch, Seattle's collective strength and tactical advantage should secure them the victory.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:51 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Andrade
Yellow Card
Negri
Rothrock
Yellow Card
Musovski
Ferreira
Arriola
Ragen
Yellow Card
Holmes
Brunell
Rothrock
Assist: Morris
Samassékou
Rothrock
Ennali
Unknown
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +15 | 46 |
| 7 |  Seattle Sounders | 30 | 11 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 42 |
| 8 |  Los Angeles Galaxy | 31 | 10 | 10 | 11 | -9 | 40 |
Match Statistics
Houston Dynamo
3-4-3Starting XI
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 10E. PonceF
- 11L. EnnaliM
- 14D. HolmesM
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 19M. BoguszF
- 20GuilhermeF
- 21F. NegriD
- 30A. BouzatM
- 31J. BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
Substitutes
- 1J. MaurerG
- 9O. LingrM
- 13S. VinesD
- 16H. HerreraM
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 29D. GonzalezM
- 34A. ReschD
- 37G. RiveraD
Seattle Sounders
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5N. ToloD
- 7C. RoldanM
- 9J. FerreiraM
- 14P. RothrockM
- 17P. ArriolaM
- 19D. MusovskiF
- 25J. RagenD
- 26A. ThomasG
- 35A. LopezD
- 37S. BrunellM
- 85K. Kossa-RienziD
Substitutes
- 11A. RusnákM
- 13J. MorrisF
- 16A. RoldanD
- 24S. FreiG
- 31H. DotsonM
- 33C. BakerD
- 45P. KingstonM
- 90S. GomezM
- 95O. De RosarioF
Houston Dynamo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme | F | 90 | 8.7 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 4 | 3/3 |
| Jonathan Bond | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Franco Negri | D | 45 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Duane Holmes | M | 75 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Antônio Carlos(C) | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Andrade | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Lawrence Ennali | M | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Mateusz Bogusz | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/5 |
| Diadié Samassékou | M | 88 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Agustín Bouzat | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Ezequiel Ponce | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Sam Vines | D | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Blake Gillingham | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Gonzalez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Maurer | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Rivera | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Aliyu | F | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Héctor Herrera | M | 9 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ondrej Lingr | M | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustin Resch | D | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Seattle Sounders
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jackson Ragen | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Nouhou Tolo | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Cristian Roldán(C) | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesús Ferreira | M | 61 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Antino Lopez | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Paul Rothrock | M | 88 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| Andrew Thomas | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kalani Kossa-Rienzi | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Paul Arriola | M | 61 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Snyder Brunell | M | 81 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Daniel Musovski | F | 61 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Cody Baker | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sebastian Gomez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Osaze De Rosario | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Frei | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Morris | F | 29 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Hassani Dotson | M | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Roldán | D | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Peter Kingston | M | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Albert Rusnák | M | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Houston Dynamo vs Seattle Sounders?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Seattle Sounders to win against Houston Dynamo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Houston Dynamo vs Seattle Sounders?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Houston Dynamo 1–2 Seattle Sounders.
- What were the win probabilities for Houston Dynamo vs Seattle Sounders?
- Fipster's model gave Houston Dynamo a 7% chance of winning, Seattle Sounders a 85% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.