Houston Dynamo vs San Diego
Match recap
Houston Dynamo beat San Diego 1–0 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Ibrahim scored for Houston Dynamo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.52 for Houston Dynamo versus 1.15 for San Diego. Houston Dynamo sit 5th in the Major League Soccer table while San Diego are 12th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Houston Dynamo win
Actual
1–0
Outcome probability
Houston Dynamo and San Diego face off in a regular season match where both sides will be eager to claim vital points. With Houston boasting a stronger league position and a slight edge in goal difference, this fixture promises a competitive battle.
Match factors
Houston's attacking duo in form
Guilherme and Bogusz lead Houston's scoring with strong home form, likely to exploit San Diego's defense
San Diego's creative midfield strength
Dreyer and Valakari provide key assists and creativity, crucial for San Diego's goal threat
Doubt over Felipe Andrade's availability
Felipe Andrade doubtful with injury, could weaken Houston's defensive line if absent
Houston's home scoring consistency
Houston averages 1.21 goals at home, slightly above league average, supporting predicted 2 goals
San Diego's recent scoring streak
San Diego has scored in 4 of last 5 matches, showing attacking momentum despite defensive issues
The context
This is a regular season fixture in the 2026 campaign, with Houston Dynamo currently sitting 5th in the league standings on 45 points, while San Diego occupy 12th place with 32 points. The teams have met three times recently, with Houston winning twice and San Diego once, and their encounters have been relatively high scoring, averaging nearly five goals per match.
Key insights
Guilherme
Houston Dynamo
Leads Houston Dynamo in goals and assists, showing strong home scoring form and key attacking role.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals and 6 assists in 27 appearances this season, averaging 0.52 goals/game at home.
Mateusz Bogusz
Houston Dynamo
Consistent goal contributor with good recent home scoring form, important as secondary striker.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 27 appearances this season, 0.22 goals/game.
Anders Laustrup Dreyer
San Diego
Top assister for San Diego with 12 assists and strong recent form, crucial creative presence.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 assists and 11 goals in 27 appearances this season, 0.44 assists/game.
- F
Felipe Andrade
Houston Dynamo
Doubtful due to injury, his absence could weaken Houston's defensive stability.
Analysis
Houston Dynamo's attacking strength is led by Guilherme, who has netted 14 goals this season and maintains a strong home scoring record. Mateusz Bogusz complements him well, contributing six goals and showing good recent form. San Diego rely heavily on midfielder Anders Laustrup Dreyer, their top assister with 12 assists and a recent scoring streak. However, Houston's better goal difference and home scoring consistency give them a tactical advantage. The doubtful status of Houston's defender Felipe Andrade could slightly weaken their backline, but goalkeeper Jonathan Bond's solid performances provide reassurance. San Diego's recent scoring in four of their last five matches indicates they won't be pushovers, making this a finely balanced contest.
Key facts
- 1.Houston Dynamo have won 2 of the last 3 head-to-head matches against San Diego.
- 2.Head-to-head matches between these teams average 4.7 goals, indicating attacking openness.
- 3.Houston Dynamo rank 5th in the league with 45 points from 28 games.
- 4.San Diego are 12th with 32 points from 28 games.
- 5.Houston Dynamo have a better goal difference (+5) compared to San Diego (-3).
- 6.Guilherme leads Houston Dynamo with 14 goals this season.
- 7.Anders Laustrup Dreyer is San Diego's top assister with 12 assists.
- 8.Felipe Andrade is doubtful for Houston Dynamo due to injury.
Prediction
The prediction favours a narrow home win for Houston Dynamo with a 2-1 scoreline. While the confidence in this outcome is cautious, the data supports Houston's ability to edge out San Diego by exploiting their attacking strengths and home form.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Houston Dynamo
Away — San Diego
The verdict
Expect a competitive match with both teams finding the net, but Houston Dynamo's home advantage and attacking duo should see them through to a slender victory. San Diego will provide a stern test, but ultimately fall just short in this regular season encounter.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:50 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Andrade
Yellow Card
Ibrahim
Assist: Lingr
Godoy
Yellow Card
Morgan
Guilherme
Samassékou
Godoy
Bogusz
Bouzat
Søe
Mighten
Pellegrino
Red Card
Andrade
Verhoeven
Negri
Yellow Card
Pilcher
Yellow Card
Lingr
Red Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +15 | 46 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
| 13 |  Minnesota United FC | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -8 | 34 |
Match Statistics
Houston Dynamo
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 9O. LingrF
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 19M. BoguszM
- 20GuilhermeF
- 21F. NegriD
- 24A. IbrahimM
- 30A. BouzatM
- 31J. BondG
- 34A. ReschD
- 36Felipe AndradeD
Substitutes
- 1J. MaurerG
- 6ArturM
- 10E. PonceF
- 11L. EnnaliF
- 13S. VinesD
- 14D. HolmesM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 28E. SviatchenkoD
San Diego
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 6J. TverskovM
- 8O. ValakariF
- 9L. MorganF
- 10A. DreyerF
- 17O. SøeD
- 18D. FerreeG
- 20A. GodoyM
- 26M. DuahD
- 33O. VerhoevenM
- 77A. MightenM
- 97C. McVeyD
Substitutes
- 1C. dos SantosG
- 7M. IngvartsenF
- 14B. B. ZambleF
- 19D. VazquezM
- 21B. DukeM
- 24E. Boateng
- 25I. PilcherD
- 70A. AlvaradoF
- 90A. PellegrinoF
Houston Dynamo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Jonathan Bond | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Aliyu | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Mateusz Bogusz | M | 75 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Agustin Resch | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ondrej Lingr | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Diadié Samassékou | M | 66 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Andrade | D | 89 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Franco Negri | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Agustín Bouzat | M | 77 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Antonio Carlos(C) | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Guilherme | F | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Duane Holmes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Maurer | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sam Vines | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Markanich | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hector Herrera | M | 13 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Erik Sviatchenko | D | 9 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Artur | M | 24 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ezequiel Ponce | F | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Lawrence Ennali | F | 15 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
San Diego
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Manu Duah | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Anders Dreyer | F | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Duran Ferree | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christopher McVey | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Osvald Soe | D | 77 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeppe Tverskov(C) | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Anibal Godoy | M | 66 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Mighten | M | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/6 |
| Oscar Verhoeven | M | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Onni Valakari | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Lewis Morgan | F | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Anisse Saidi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bryce Duke | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| CJ dos Santos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bryan Zamblé | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ian Pilcher | D | 13 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alejandro Alvarado Jr | F | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Vazquez | M | 13 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Marcus Ingvartsen | F | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Amahl Pellegrino | F | 13 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Houston Dynamo vs San Diego?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Houston Dynamo to win against San Diego.
- What score did Fipster predict for Houston Dynamo vs San Diego?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Houston Dynamo 2–1 San Diego.
- What were the win probabilities for Houston Dynamo vs San Diego?
- Fipster's model gave Houston Dynamo a 39% chance of winning, San Diego a 30% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 39% confidence — a low-confidence call.