Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers
Match recap
Houston Dynamo beat Portland Timbers 3–2 in their Major League Soccer fixture. Guilherme, Andrade, and Bogusz scored for Houston Dynamo; Guerra and Velde replied for Portland Timbers. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.20 for Houston Dynamo versus 2.37 for Portland Timbers. Houston Dynamo sit 5th in the Major League Soccer table while Portland Timbers are 11th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Houston Dynamo win
Actual
3–2
Outcome probability
The upcoming clash between Houston Dynamo and Portland Timbers promises an intriguing battle as both sides look to assert themselves early in the 2026 regular season. With Houston showing solid home performances and Portland eager to continue their scoring streak on the road, fans can expect a competitive encounter.
Match factors
Houston's attacking duo in strong form
Guilherme and Bogusz have combined for 20 goals this season, showing strong synergy and home scoring ability
Portland's key playmaker doubtful
David Pereira da Costa leads Portland with 7 assists but is doubtful, potentially weakening their creativity
Houston's home defensive solidity
Houston concedes fewer goals at home (0.86 per game) compared to Portland's away conceding rate (2.0 per game)
Portland's scoring streak on the road
Portland has scored in their last 5 away matches, showing offensive consistency despite defensive issues
Houston missing key midfielder Herrera
Héctor Herrera is out due to suspension, reducing midfield experience and defensive cover
The context
Houston Dynamo currently sit 5th in the league standings with 45 points from 28 games, while Portland Timbers are placed 10th with 33 points from the same number of matches. Historically, their head-to-head record is evenly matched with 7 wins apiece and 6 draws in 20 meetings, setting the stage for a closely contested fixture.
Key insights
Guilherme
Houston Dynamo
Top scorer with 14 goals this season and strong recent home form, making him a key focal point in Houston's attack.
Major League Soccer 26/2714 goals in 26 apps, 0.54 goals/game
Mateusz Bogusz
Houston Dynamo
Consistent starter with 6 goals this season and good home scoring form, important secondary scorer alongside Guilherme.
Major League Soccer 26/276 goals in 26 apps, 0.23 goals/game
David Pereira da Costa
Portland Timbers
Leads Portland in assists with 7 this season but is doubtful for this match, potentially weakening their creativity.
Major League Soccer 26/277 assists in 23 apps, 0.30 assists/game
Kristoffer Velde
Portland Timbers
Key offensive threat with 8 goals and 6 assists this season, showing strong form despite team’s defensive issues.
Major League Soccer 26/278 goals in 26 apps, 0.31 goals/game
Analysis
Houston's attacking duo, Guilherme and Mateusz Bogusz, have been in fine form this season, combining for 20 goals and showing strong synergy, particularly at home. Meanwhile, Portland's key playmaker David Pereira da Costa is doubtful, which could hamper their creativity. Defensively, Houston boasts a tighter home record, conceding fewer goals compared to Portland's more leaky away form. Despite Portland's consistent scoring in their last five away games, Houston's home solidity and attacking prowess give them the edge.
Key facts
- 1.Houston Dynamo are ranked 5th with 45 points from 28 games.
- 2.Portland Timbers are ranked 10th with 33 points from 28 games.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, both teams have won 7 times each with 6 draws.
- 4.Houston concedes fewer goals at home (0.86 per game) than Portland concedes away (2.0 per game).
- 5.Portland has scored in their last 5 away matches, showing consistent offensive threat.
- 6.David Pereira da Costa, Portland's top assister with 7 assists, is doubtful for this match.
- 7.Houston's Mateusz Bogusz scored in this fixture, highlighting his offensive contribution.
- 8.Kristoffer Velde scored for Portland in this fixture, maintaining his role as a key attacker.
Prediction
We predict a 2-1 victory for Houston Dynamo. The home side's attacking strengths and defensive resilience are likely to be decisive, especially with Portland missing some creative spark. The match should be competitive, but Houston's ability to convert chances at home should see them through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Houston Dynamo
Away — Portland Timbers
The verdict
In summary, expect Houston Dynamo to leverage their home advantage and attacking form to claim a narrow 2-1 win over Portland Timbers. While Portland will pose threats, particularly in attack, Houston's balance and recent performances make them the favourites to take all three points.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:47 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Miller
Yellow Card
Ponce
Yellow Card
Lassiter
Yellow Card
Guerra
Penalty confirmed
Ponce
Fory
Yellow Card
Guilherme
Assist: Bogusz
Pereira da Costa
Samassékou
Halter
Lassiter
Aravena
Andrade
Assist: Guilherme
Velde
Assist: Surman
Holmes
Mora
Yellow Card
Markanich
Red Card
Ennali
Guerra
Guilherme
Yellow Card
Bogusz
Assist: McGlynn
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 30 | 16 | 7 | 7 | +32 | 55 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 30 | 13 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 48 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 30 | 13 | 8 | 9 | +2 | 47 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 31 | 12 | 10 | 9 | +15 | 46 |
| 10 |  Real Salt Lake | 30 | 10 | 6 | 14 | -3 | 36 |
| 11 |  Portland Timbers | 30 | 9 | 7 | 14 | -5 | 34 |
| 12 |  San Diego | 30 | 8 | 10 | 12 | -3 | 34 |
Match Statistics
Houston Dynamo
3-4-3Starting XI
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 8J. McGlynnM
- 10E. PonceF
- 11L. EnnaliM
- 14D. HolmesM
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 19M. BoguszF
- 20GuilhermeF
- 28E. SviatchenkoD
- 31J. BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
Substitutes
- 1J. MaurerG
- 9O. LingrM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 21F. NegriD
- 22M. AranaM
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 34A. ReschD
Portland Timbers
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4K. MillerD
- 5B. ByeD
- 7A. LassiterF
- 10David Pereira da CostaM
- 20F. SurmanD
- 21D. CharáM
- 27J. ForyD
- 28A. AravenaM
- 41J. PantemisG
- 88Andrew GuerraF
- 99K. VeldeF
Substitutes
- 9F. MoraF
- 15E. MillerD
- 16S. JuraD
- 19K. KelsyF
- 23Ian SmithD
- 25T. MuseG
- 80J. OrtizM
Houston Dynamo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme | F | 90 | 9.3 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2 | 3 | 4/4 |
| Jonathan Bond | G | 90 | 8.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Mateusz Bogusz | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Jack McGlynn | M | 90 | 7.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Felipe Andrade | D | 90 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Duane Holmes | M | 81 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Ezequiel Ponce | F | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Erik Sviatchenko(C) | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Lucas Halter | D | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Lawrence Ennali | M | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Diadié Samassékou | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Franco Negri | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matthew Arana | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jimmy Maurer | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustin Resch | D | 21 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ondrej Lingr | M | 20 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Aliyu | F | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Héctor Herrera | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Nick Markanich | F | 12 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Portland Timbers
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kristoffer Velde | F | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 2/4 |
| Finn Surman | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | 1 | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Diego Chará(C) | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Gage Guerra | F | 89 | 6.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Alexander Aravena | M | 71 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/3 |
| David da Costa | M | 63 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | — |
| Ariel Lassiter | F | 71 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Kamal Miller | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| James Pantemis | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jímer Fory | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Brandon Bye | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Sawyer Jura | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Miller | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Trey Muse | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Kelsy | F | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| Felipe Mora | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Joao Ortíz | M | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Ian Smith | D | 19 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Houston Dynamo to win against Portland Timbers.
- What score did Fipster predict for Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Houston Dynamo 2–1 Portland Timbers.
- What were the win probabilities for Houston Dynamo vs Portland Timbers?
- Fipster's model gave Houston Dynamo a 46% chance of winning, Portland Timbers a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 46% confidence — a medium-confidence call.