Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati
Dynamo held as Cincinnati snatch late draw
A spirited comeback sees FC Cincinnati rescue a point with a stoppage-time penalty.
Houston Dynamo looked set for victory after Guilherme's first-half strike and M. Bogusz's early second-half penalty put them two goals ahead. However, FC Cincinnati fought back with Bryan Josías Ramírez León pulling one back before K. Denkey converted a penalty deep into stoppage time to level the scores at 2-2. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a 2-0 home win, turning what seemed a straightforward Dynamo victory into a shared spoils affair.
Outcome probability
As the regular season rolls on, Houston Dynamo face off against FC Cincinnati in what promises to be a tactical tussle. Both teams have their key players ready to make an impact, but the home side's recent form suggests they have the edge.
Match factors
Guilherme's dual threat at home
Guilherme excels at home with 0.75 goals/90 and 0.5 assists/90 in last 10 home games, providing Houston a strong attacking edge
Houston's home defensive solidity
Houston concedes only 0.7 goals per home game, better than league average, aiding their predicted clean sheet
Evander's creative influence for Cincinnati
Evander has 8 assists this season with strong home assist rate, key to Cincinnati's attacking chances
Saracchi's doubtful status weakens Houston defense
Saracchi's lower-body injury casts doubt on defensive stability; if absent, Houston's backline may be vulnerable
Denkey's home scoring threat for Cincinnati
Denkey scores 0.67 goals/90 at home, making him a key threat despite Cincinnati's overall defensive struggles
The context
Houston Dynamo currently sit second in their league with 43 points from 24 games, showcasing a solid campaign so far. FC Cincinnati's data is less complete, but their leading scorer, K. Denkey, has been a consistent threat. This match is part of the regular season's 26th round, with both sides eager to gain crucial points.
Key insights
Guilherme
Houston Dynamo
Guilherme excels at home with 0.75 goals per 90 minutes and 0.5 assists per 90 in the last 10 home games, providing a strong attacking edge.
Major League Soccer 26/2712 goals and 6 assists in 22 apps, 0.75 goals/90 at home
Evander
FC Cincinnati
Evander is a creative hub with 8 assists and 10 goals this season, crucial for Cincinnati's attacking chances despite recent form dips.
Major League Soccer 26/2710 goals and 8 assists in 19 apps
K. Denkey
FC Cincinnati
Denkey is a key offensive threat with 11 goals and a strong home scoring rate of 0.67 goals per 90 minutes in the last 5 home games.
Major League Soccer 26/2711 goals in 19 apps, 0.67 goals/90 at home
- M
M. Saracchi
Houston Dynamo
Saracchi's doubtful status due to a lower-body injury could weaken Houston's defensive solidity if he misses the match.
Major League Soccer 26/27Good tackling and duels win rate in limited appearances
Analysis
Houston Dynamo's home form is impressive, conceding just 0.7 goals per game on average, which bodes well for a clean sheet. Guilherme leads the charge with 12 goals and 6 assists this season, particularly thriving at home with 0.75 goals per 90 minutes in the last 10 home games. FC Cincinnati's main offensive threat, K. Denkey, has 11 goals but the team's overall defensive frailties may be exposed. The doubtful status of Houston's defender M. Saracchi could slightly weaken their backline, but the midfield anchor Artur's presence should help maintain control.
Key facts
- 1.Houston Dynamo are ranked 2nd in their league with 43 points from 24 games (W13 D4 L7).
- 2.Houston concedes only 0.7 goals per home game, better than the league average.
- 3.Guilherme leads Houston with 12 goals and 6 assists this season.
- 4.Guilherme averages 0.75 goals per 90 minutes in the last 10 home games.
- 5.K. Denkey is FC Cincinnati's top scorer with 11 goals.
- 6.Evander has contributed 8 assists and 10 goals for Cincinnati this season.
- 7.M. Saracchi is doubtful with a lower-body injury, potentially impacting Houston's defence.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a Houston Dynamo 2-0 victory. Guilherme's dual threat as scorer and assister at home is expected to be decisive, while Houston's defensive solidity should keep FC Cincinnati at bay. Despite some uncertainties due to limited away team data and Saracchi's doubtful fitness, the home side's advantages are clear.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Houston Dynamo
Away — FC Cincinnati
The verdict
In summary, Houston Dynamo look set to capitalise on their home strengths and secure a 2-0 win over FC Cincinnati. While the away side has capable players like Denkey and Evander, the Dynamo's form and tactical setup should see them through comfortably.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Guilherme
Bogusz
Penalty
Echenique
Hagglund
Nwobodo
Bouzat
Bryan Josías Ramírez León
Assist: Denkey
Ennali
Herrera
Bucha
Valenzuela
Guilherme
Denkey
Penalty
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Vancouver Whitecaps | 26 | 15 | 5 | 6 | +33 | 50 |
| 4 |  San Jose Earthquakes | 27 | 13 | 6 | 8 | +10 | 45 |
| 5 |  Houston Dynamo | 27 | 13 | 5 | 9 | +2 | 44 |
| 6 |  Los Angeles FC | 28 | 11 | 8 | 9 | +13 | 41 |
Match Statistics
Houston Dynamo
4-4-2Starting XI
- 3Antônio CarlosD
- 5Lucas HalterD
- 6ArturM
- 11L. EnnaliM
- 16H. HerreraM
- 19M. BoguszM
- 20GuilhermeF
- 21F. NegriD
- 30A. BouzatF
- 31J. BondG
- 36Felipe AndradeD
Substitutes
- 14D. HolmesM
- 17N. MarkanichF
- 18D. SamassékouM
- 22M. AranaM
- 23D. McGuireF
- 24A. IbrahimF
- 26B. GillinghamG
- 37G. RiveraD
FC Cincinnati
3-4-3Starting XI
- 4N. HagglundD
- 5O. NwobodoM
- 9K. DenkeyF
- 10EvanderF
- 11S. GidiD
- 12M. RobinsonD
- 17K. Mboma DemM
- 18R. CelentanoG
- 20P. BuchaM
- 22G. ValenzuelaF
- 66E. EcheniqueM
Substitutes
- 2A. PowellD
- 13E. LouroG
- 14K. FletcherF
- 15T. HadebeD
- 16T. BarlowF
- 24K. SmithD
- 29Bryan Josías Ramírez LeónD
- 88A. ChirilaD
- 99A. JabbariF
Houston Dynamo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Guilherme | F | 94 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/8 |
| Jonathan Bond | G | 96 | 8.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Halter | D | 96 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lawrence Ennali | M | 81 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Agustín Bouzat | F | 67 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Artur(C) | M | 96 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Héctor Herrera | M | 81 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Mateusz Bogusz | M | 96 | 6.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Antônio Carlos | D | 96 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Franco Negri | D | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Felipe Andrade | D | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Blake Gillingham | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Duane Holmes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nick Markanich | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Duncan McGuire | F | 2 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Rivera | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Aliyu | F | 15 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Matthew Arana | M | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diadié Samassékou | M | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
FC Cincinnati
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miles Robinson | D | 96 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Evander(C) | F | 96 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 4 | 1/2 |
| Obinna Nwobodo | M | 54 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Gerardo Valenzuela | F | 87 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2/3 |
| Kenji Mboma Dem | M | 96 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Pavel Bucha | M | 84 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Samuel Gidi | D | 96 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Kévin Denkey | F | 96 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 4 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Ender Echenique | M | 54 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/3 |
| Nick Hagglund | D | 54 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roman Celentano | G | 96 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alvas Powell | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kristian Fletcher | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrei Chirila | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Evan Louro | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bryan Ramirez | D | 42 | 8.5 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Teenage Hadebe | D | 42 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ayoub Jabbari | F | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kyle Smith | D | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tom Barlow | F | 42 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Houston Dynamo to win against FC Cincinnati.
- What score did Fipster predict for Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Houston Dynamo 2–0 FC Cincinnati.
- What were the win probabilities for Houston Dynamo vs FC Cincinnati?
- Fipster's model gave Houston Dynamo a 35% chance of winning, FC Cincinnati a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.