Hellas Verona vs AC Milan
Match recap
AC Milan beat Hellas Verona 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Rabiot scored for AC Milan. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.71 for Hellas Verona versus 0.85 for AC Milan. Hellas Verona sit 19th in the Serie A table while AC Milan are 5th.
Analysis
As Hellas Verona host AC Milan in this Serie A clash, the visitors look poised to continue their dominance with a tight 1-0 win. Milan's superior form and tactical edge suggest a disciplined, low-scoring affair.
Hellas Verona sit precariously in 19th place with just 18 points, struggling to find consistency. AC Milan, on the other hand, are second in the league with 66 points, boasting a strong record against Verona historically and this season.
Milan's midfield maestros, led by Luka Modrić, control possession expertly, while Rafael Leão remains a constant goal threat despite injury concerns. Verona's attacking options are limited due to injuries, and their defensive discipline is shaky, making Milan favourites to keep a clean sheet.
Prediction
The highest probability scoreline is a 1-0 away win for AC Milan, with a 79% confidence level. Expect a tight match with Milan scoring the decisive goal and maintaining defensive composure to secure all three points.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
AC Milan's midfield dominance
Modrić and Rabiot control possession and create chances, exploiting Verona's midfield injuries
Hellas Verona's key attackers missing
Orban and other forwards injured, reducing goal threat and offensive options
AC Milan's superior defensive record
Milan concedes 0.8 goals/game vs Verona's 1.7, likely to limit Verona's scoring
Milan's better recent form
Milan has 57.6% win rate and positive streaks, Verona struggles with only 9% win rate
Verona's defensive discipline concerns
Multiple defenders with high yellow card rates and injuries may lead to vulnerabilities
Key Takeaways
In summary, AC Milan's quality and form should see them edge out Hellas Verona in a closely fought encounter. Verona's struggles and injury woes make it tough for them to break down Milan's defence, resulting in a narrow away victory.
- AC Milan have won 14 of 20 head-to-head matches against Hellas Verona.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.8 goals, with Milan scoring 38 to Verona's 18.
- AC Milan are 2nd in Serie A with 66 points; Hellas Verona are 19th with 18 points.
- Milan concedes 0.8 goals per game compared to Verona's 1.7, highlighting defensive strength.
- Rafael Leão is Milan's top scorer with 9 goals this season, despite injury setbacks.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Hellas Verona
No standout top scorers flagged for Hellas Verona
Away — AC Milan
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Oyegoke
Akpa Akpro
Yellow Card
Rabiot
Assist: Rafael Leão
Bradarić
Athekame
Athekame
Rafael Leão
Rafael Leão
Fofana
Akpa Akpro
Pulišić
Bernede
Gagliardini
Al Musrati
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Hellas Verona
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1L. MontipòG
- 2D. OyegokeM
- 5A. EdmundssonD
- 6N. ValentiniD
- 7R. BelghaliF
- 11J. Akpa AkproM
- 12D. BradarićM
- 15V. NelssonD
- 16G. OrbanF
- 24A. BernedeF
- 63R. GagliardiniM
Substitutes
- 3M. FreseD
- 4S. LovrićM
- 14Pol LirolaD
- 19T. SlotsagerD
- 21A. HarrouiM
- 34S. PerilliG
- 37A. Bella-KotchapD
- 41IsaacF
- 70Fallou ChamD
- 72J. AjayiF
- 73Al MusratiM
- 90Ioan VermeșanF
- 94G. TonioloG
AC Milan
3-5-2Starting XI
- 10Rafael LeãoF
- 11C. PulišićF
- 12A. RabiotM
- 14L. ModrićM
- 16M. MaignanG
- 19Y. FofanaM
- 23F. TomoriD
- 24Z. AthekameM
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 33D. BartesaghiM
- 46M. GabbiaD
Substitutes
- 1P. TerraccianoG
- 2P. EstupiñánD
- 4S. RicciM
- 5K. De WinterD
- 7S. GiménezF
- 8R. Loftus-CheekM
- 9N. FüllkrugF
- 18C. NkunkuF
- 27D. OdoguD
- 30A. JashariM
- 37M. PittarellaG
- 56A. SaelemaekersF
Hellas Verona
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Victor Nelsson | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roberto Gagliardini | M | 83 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Nicolás Valentini | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Antoine Bernede | F | 82 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 0/2 |
| Lorenzo Montipo(C) | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrias Edmundsson | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Domagoj Bradarić | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Daniel Oyegoke | M | 21 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gift Orban | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jean Daniel Akpa-Akpro | M | 64 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafik Belghali | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Martin Frese | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Junior Ajayi | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tobias Slotsager | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giacomo Toniolo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdou Harroui | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Simone Perilli | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Armel Bella-Kotchap | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fallou Cham | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mutassim Al-Musrati | M | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Sandi Lovrić | M | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Isaac | F | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ioan Vermesan | F | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Pol Lirola | D | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
AC Milan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| Luka Modrić | M | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Strahinja Pavlović | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Gabbia | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fikayo Tomori | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mike Maignan(C) | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Davide Bartesaghi | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Rafael Leão | F | 63 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Christian Pulišić | F | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Youssouf Fofana | M | 64 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Zachary Athekame | M | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Koni De Winter | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matteo Pittarella | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Odogu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ardon Jashari | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Niclas Fullkrug | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pietro Terracciano | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pervis Estupiñán | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuele Ricci | M | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexis Saelemaekers | F | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Christopher Nkunku | F | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Santiago Giménez | F | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |