Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen
Match recap
Heerenveen beat NEC Nijmegen 1–0 in their Eredivisie fixture. Vente scored for Heerenveen. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.46 for Heerenveen versus 1.23 for NEC Nijmegen. Heerenveen sit 6th in the Eredivisie table while NEC Nijmegen are 14th.
Outcome probability
As the regular season unfolds, Heerenveen and NEC Nijmegen prepare to face off in what promises to be a competitive fixture. Both teams have shown glimpses of quality, but the stats suggest a slight edge for Heerenveen.
Match factors
Heerenveen's Midfield Scoring Power
Jacob Trenskow leads with 4 goals in 9 games, well above league midfielder average (0.18).
Heerenveen's Positive Scoring Streak
Heerenveen has scored in 3 of last 5 home games, showing strong attacking form at home.
Strong Defensive Tackling by Sam Kersten
Kersten's 19 tackles and 9 interceptions in 9 games provide Heerenveen a defensive edge.
NEC Missing Key Attacker Emre Mor
Mor is confirmed out with groin injury, reducing NEC's attacking options significantly.
Tjaronn Chery's Dual Threat for NEC
Chery has 4 goals and 2 assists in 7 games, key to NEC's attack despite team's lower form.
The context
Heerenveen currently sit 7th in the league with 15 points from 10 games, while NEC Nijmegen are down in 13th with 10 points from 9 games. The goal difference also favours Heerenveen (+5 compared to NEC's -1), indicating a more balanced performance both offensively and defensively so far this season.
Key insights
Jacob Bennedsen Trenskow
Heerenveen
Leads team scoring with 4 goals in 9 games, well above league midfielder average (0.18).
Eredivisie 26/274 goals in 9 appearances, 0.44 goals/game
- S
Sam Kersten
Heerenveen
Provides defensive edge with 19 tackles and 9 interceptions in 9 games, crucial for containing NEC.
Eredivisie 26/2719 tackles and 9 interceptions in 9 games
Tjaronn Chefren Chery
NEC Nijmegen
Key attacker with 4 goals and 2 assists in 7 games, vital for NEC’s offensive efforts despite team struggles.
Eredivisie 26/274 goals and 2 assists in 7 appearances
Analysis
Heerenveen's midfield dynamo Jacob Bennedsen Trenskow has been in fine form, netting 4 goals in 9 appearances, well above the league average for midfielders. His recent scoring streak, with 4 goals in the last 5 matches, adds a potent threat. Defensively, Sam Kersten's tackling and interceptions provide a solid backbone. NEC's top scorer Tjaronn Chefren Chery remains a key figure with 4 goals and 2 assists in 7 games, but the absence of Emre Mor due to a groin injury hampers their attacking options. Historically, matches between these sides average nearly 3 goals, so a lively encounter is expected.
Key facts
- 1.Heerenveen are 7th in the league with 15 points from 10 games (W4 D3 L3).
- 2.NEC Nijmegen are 13th with 10 points from 9 games (W2 D4 L3).
- 3.Heerenveen have a +5 goal difference; NEC have -1.
- 4.Jacob Bennedsen Trenskow leads Heerenveen with 4 goals in 9 games.
- 5.Tjaronn Chefren Chery is NEC's top scorer with 4 goals in 7 games.
- 6.Head-to-head matches average 2.9 goals, indicating a moderately high-scoring game.
- 7.Sam Kersten has made 19 tackles and 9 interceptions in 9 games for Heerenveen.
- 8.Emre Mor is out with a groin injury, weakening NEC's attack.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a Heerenveen win with a halftime lead of 1-0 and a final score of 2-1. This aligns with their superior league standing, goal difference, and home form. Expect Heerenveen to take the initiative early, with NEC pushing back but ultimately falling short.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Heerenveen
Away — NEC Nijmegen
The verdict
In summary, Heerenveen's stronger squad depth and recent form should see them through to a narrow victory. NEC will provide resistance, but the home side's attacking and defensive balance is likely to prevail in this regular season fixture.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 15:24 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bischoff
Yellow Card
Braude
Yellow Card
Linssen
Yellow Card
Zagaritis
Yellow Card
Linday
Yellow Card
Rivera
Vente
Assist: Smans
Schuurs
Bischoff
Smans
Courtens
Storm
Kers
Thomas
Yellow Card
Jamiro Monteiro
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 |
| 5 |  AZ Alkmaar | 12 | 7 | 2 | 3 | +8 | 23 |
| 6 |  Heerenveen | 12 | 6 | 3 | 3 | +8 | 21 |
| 7 |  Fortuna Sittard | 12 | 5 | 5 | 2 | 0 | 20 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
| 14 |  NEC Nijmegen | 11 | 2 | 5 | 4 | -2 | 11 |
| 15 |  Excelsior | 12 | 3 | 2 | 7 | -13 | 11 |
Match Statistics
Heerenveen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1B. KlaverboerG
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 7M. RiveraM
- 8N. CourtensM
- 9D. VenteF
- 14L. SmansM
- 16M. LindayM
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 45O. BraudeD
Substitutes
- 2M. HilgersD
- 6D. ProperM
- 10R. MeerveldM
- 11L. OyenF
- 15M. EgbringD
- 17R. UldriķisF
- 21M. FarjiF
- 23D. BladiD
- 28H. PetrovD
- 29L. MachineF
- 30T. SchreuderG
- 44A. NoppertG
NEC Nijmegen
3-1-4-2Starting XI
- 1G. CrettazG
- 4P. SchuursD
- 6D. NejašmićM
- 9T. CheryF
- 20N. LebretonM
- 21T. StormD
- 22A. KaplanD
- 30B. LinssenF
- 34Kevin KersM
- 35Jamiro MonteiroM
- 99Clement BischoffM
Substitutes
- 8I. Hansen-AarøenM
- 11W. WillumssonM
- 12N. PolsterG
- 14K. SierhuisF
- 19Adam TahauiF
- 36Freek EntiusG
- 42Y. MoslihD
- 66Almugera Raouf Mohammed KabarD
- 73Gabriel BrásD
- 77A. ThomasF
Heerenveen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Vente | F | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| L. Smans | M | 78 | 7.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| J. Trenskow | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| S. Kersten | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Willemsen | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Meerveld | M | 28 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| D. Proper | M | 12 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Klaverboer | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Linday | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| V. Zagaritis | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Braude | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| N. Courtens | M | 78 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| L. Oyen | F | 12 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rivera | M | 62 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Noppert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Schreuder | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Egbring | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Machine | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bladi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Hilgers | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Farji | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Petrov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Uldriķis | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
NEC Nijmegen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Kaplan | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| T. Storm | D | 79 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| P. Schuurs | D | 73 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Kers | M | 85 | 6.9 | — | — | 3 | — | 3 | 2/4 |
| T. Chery | F | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 4 | 1 | 6 | 1/1 |
| D. Nejašmić | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| N. Lebreton | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 5 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Jamiro Monteiro | M | 86 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Gabriel Brás | D | 11 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Crettaz | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Linssen | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Clement Bischoff | M | 73 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/4 |
| W. Willumsson | M | 4 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adam Tahaui | F | 5 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Thomas | F | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| K. Sierhuis | F | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| N. Polster | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Hansen-Aarøen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Almugera Raouf Mohammed Kabar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Freek Entius | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Moslih | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Heerenveen to win against NEC Nijmegen.
- What score did Fipster predict for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Heerenveen 2–1 NEC Nijmegen.
- What were the win probabilities for Heerenveen vs NEC Nijmegen?
- Fipster's model gave Heerenveen a 78% chance of winning, NEC Nijmegen a 11% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 78% confidence — a high-confidence call.