Heerenveen vs Excelsior
Heerenveen steamroll Excelsior in dominant display
A commanding 4-0 victory sees Heerenveen dismantle Excelsior with clinical finishing.
Heerenveen put on a masterclass, cruising to a 4-0 win over Excelsior with goals from D. Vente, O. Braude, L. Oyen, and J. Trenskow. Vente's early penalty set the tone, and the home side never looked back, adding three more goals after the break. This emphatic result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of an Excelsior win, proving the home team’s dominance on the day.
Outcome probability
As the Eredivisie season progresses into its ninth round, Excelsior look poised to extend their positive run with a strong performance against Heerenveen. Both teams have had mixed fortunes so far, but the visitors hold the edge in recent form and goal difference.
Match factors
Heerenveen's Midfielders Lead Scoring
Heerenveen's midfielders, led by Trenskow (3 goals), outperform league averages in scoring, boosting their attack potential.
Levi Smans' Assist Streak
Smans has 3 assists in last 5 games, showing strong creative form especially away from home.
Strong Defensive Presence from Kersten
Kersten's high tackle and interception rates provide Heerenveen defensive stability against Excelsior's attack.
Excelsior Missing Key Midfielder Naujoks
Excelsior's confirmed absence of midfielder N. Naujoks weakens their midfield creativity and goal threat.
The context
Heerenveen currently sit 10th in the league with 9 points from 8 games, while Excelsior are a few places higher in 7th with 11 points from 7 matches. Historically, Heerenveen have the upper hand in head-to-head clashes, winning 11 of 19 meetings, but recent trends and current season stats suggest Excelsior are the side to watch in this fixture.
Key insights
Jacob Bennedsen Trenskow
Heerenveen
Top scorer for Heerenveen with 3 goals, showing strong away form with 3 goals in 4 away matches, making him a key attacking threat.
Eredivisie 26/273 goals in 8 appearances, 0.375 goals/game
Levi Smans
Heerenveen
Leading assist provider with 3 assists in 6 games, particularly effective away from home, providing creative spark for Heerenveen's attack.
Eredivisie 26/273 assists in 6 appearances, 0.5 assists/game
Analysis
Excelsior's superior goal difference (+6 compared to Heerenveen's neutral 0) reflects their more effective attack and defence this season. Key players like Jacob Bennedsen Trenskow, who boasts 3 goals in 8 appearances with a strong away scoring record, will be crucial for Heerenveen. However, Excelsior's overall form and tactical setup appear better suited to secure an away win. The predicted halftime score of 0-1 aligns with Excelsior's ability to start strongly and maintain control, while the fulltime forecast of 1-3 suggests they will continue to press their advantage throughout the match.
Key facts
- 1.Heerenveen have won 11 of 19 head-to-head matches against Excelsior.
- 2.Excelsior currently rank 7th with 11 points from 7 games, ahead of Heerenveen's 10th place with 9 points from 8 games.
- 3.Excelsior's goal difference (+6) surpasses Heerenveen's neutral goal difference (0) this season.
- 4.Jacob Bennedsen Trenskow is Heerenveen's top scorer with 3 goals in 8 appearances, including 3 goals in 4 away matches.
- 5.Levi Smans leads Heerenveen's assists with 3 in 6 games, showing strong creative form away from home.
- 6.The predicted halftime score is 0-1 in favour of Excelsior, consistent with the fulltime prediction of 1-3.
- 7.The match is expected to feature around three cards, indicating a moderately physical game.
Prediction
Expect Excelsior to take the lead by halftime and maintain their momentum to finish with a 3-1 victory. The match is also likely to see a moderate level of discipline, with around three cards expected, reflecting a competitive but controlled encounter.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Heerenveen
Away — Excelsior
No standout top scorers flagged for Excelsior
The verdict
In summary, Excelsior's current form, goal difference advantage, and tactical strengths make them the favourites to claim all three points against Heerenveen. While the home side have their own attacking threats, the visitors' consistency and efficiency should see them through comfortably.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 16:40 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Vente
Penalty
Þorsteinsson
Yellow Card
Garden
Braude
Assist: Trenskow
Janssen
Þorsteinsson
Sliti
Rivera
Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira
Smans
Vente
Courtens
Oyen
Assist: Meerveld
Willemsen
Trenskow
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 8 | 6 | 2 | 0 | +20 | 20 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 8 | 2 | 5 | 1 | +2 | 11 |
| 9 |  Excelsior | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | +2 | 11 |
| 10 |  Heerenveen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  NEC Nijmegen | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | -1 | 9 |
Match Statistics
Heerenveen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1B. KlaverboerG
- 3M. WillemsenD
- 4S. KerstenD
- 7M. RiveraM
- 8N. CourtensM
- 9D. VenteF
- 14L. SmansM
- 16M. LindayM
- 19V. ZagaritisD
- 20J. TrenskowM
- 45O. BraudeD
Substitutes
- 2M. HilgersD
- 10R. MeerveldM
- 11L. OyenF
- 15M. EgbringD
- 17R. UldriķisF
- 21M. FarjiF
- 23D. BladiD
- 28H. PetrovD
- 29L. MachineF
- 30T. SchreuderG
- 44A. NoppertG
- 49Anass BouzianeM
Excelsior
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1S. van GasselG
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraD
- 3R. MeissenM
- 4C. WidellD
- 7A. SlitiF
- 8I. YegoianM
- 14J. PlugD
- 15S. JanssenD
- 19D. GardenF
- 20L. HartjesM
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonF
Substitutes
- 6D. van VianenM
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 10N. NaujoksM
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 22O. TurayD
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 28N. GroenF
Heerenveen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Trenskow | M | 89 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 5 | 1 | 1 | — |
| O. Braude | D | 89 | 8.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| M. Willemsen | D | 86 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| L. Oyen | F | 7 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| S. Kersten | D | 89 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| V. Zagaritis | D | 89 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| D. Vente | F | 82 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. Smans | M | 82 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3/3 |
| R. Meerveld | M | 7 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| H. Petrov | D | 3 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Linday | M | 89 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| B. Klaverboer | G | 89 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Uldriķis | F | 7 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Farji | F | 16 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| M. Rivera | M | 73 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| N. Courtens | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Machine | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Egbring | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anass Bouziane | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Noppert | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Schreuder | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Hilgers | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Bladi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Excelsior
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Sliti | F | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| L. Hartjes | M | 89 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| D. Garden | F | 46 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mario Domínguez | F | 43 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Plug | D | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Yegoian | M | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/4 |
| I. Silva Timas | F | 23 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Janssen | D | 66 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Á. Þorsteinsson | F | 66 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| C. Widell | D | 89 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| V. Sulzbacher | M | 23 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Meissen | M | 89 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Naujoks | M | 12 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira | D | 77 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Turay | D | 23 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. van Gassel | G | 89 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Groen | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. van Vianen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Jahanbakhsh | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Celton Biai | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giulliano Cairo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Excelsior to win against Heerenveen.
- What score did Fipster predict for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Heerenveen 1–3 Excelsior.
- What were the win probabilities for Heerenveen vs Excelsior?
- Fipster's model gave Heerenveen a 8% chance of winning, Excelsior a 84% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 84% confidence — a high-confidence call.