Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart
Hamburger SV clinch narrow win over Stuttgart
Muheim's late strike secures all three points for the home side.
Hamburger SV edged out VfB Stuttgart 1-0 thanks to M. Muheim's decisive goal in the 88th minute. The match was tightly contested with the breakthrough coming late, reflecting a hard-fought victory. Fipster's prediction of a home win was on the money, albeit with a slightly different scoreline in mind.
Outcome probability
Hamburger SV and VfB Stuttgart meet in the sixth round of the regular season, both struggling near the bottom of the table with just three points from four games. This fixture promises a competitive encounter as both teams look to climb out of the relegation zone.
Match factors
Hamburger SV missing key attackers
HSV confirmed out attackers Grønbæk, Daka, and Røssing-Lelesiit reduce scoring options significantly
HSV's recent scoring streak despite defensive woes
HSV has scored in last 2 matches but conceded in all 5 recent games, indicating attacking potential but defensive vulnerability
VfB Stuttgart's attacking midfield strength
Stuttgart's midfielders like Stiller and Mittelstädt show strong creative and defensive stats, potentially controlling midfield battle
Poulsen's consistent goal threat for HSV
Poulsen scored in recent matches with high ratings, making him HSV's main scoring outlet amid injuries
Vagnoman's dual threat for Stuttgart
Vagnoman combines goal scoring and assisting with strong recent form, posing a challenge for HSV defense
The context
The head-to-head record favours VfB Stuttgart, who have won 12 of their 20 meetings against Hamburger SV's 5, with 3 draws. Matches between these sides tend to be open affairs, averaging 3.4 goals per game, suggesting an entertaining contest ahead. Both teams currently sit close in the league standings, but Stuttgart boasts a significantly better goal difference.
Key insights
- Y
Y. Poulsen
Hamburger SV
Poulsen has been HSV's consistent goal scorer with recent goals and high match ratings, making him the key offensive threat amid injuries.
Bundesliga 26/27High match ratings of 8.03 and 7.44 in recent fixtures; scored in last away win.
- J
J. Vagnoman
VfB Stuttgart
Vagnoman combines goal scoring and assisting with strong recent form, posing a significant challenge for HSV's defence.
Bundesliga 26/27Recent rating of 8.55 in home win; key contributor with goals and assists.
- A
A. Stiller
VfB Stuttgart
Stiller's creativity and multiple recent assists highlight his role in Stuttgart's attacking midfield strength.
Bundesliga 26/27Rated 8.6 with 2 assists in last away win; high passing volume and key passes.
Analysis
Hamburger SV have shown some attacking spark recently, scoring in their last two matches despite defensive vulnerabilities. Key attackers Grønbæk, Daka, and Røssing-Lelesiit are out, which limits their options upfront, but Y. Poulsen remains a consistent goal threat with strong recent performances. VfB Stuttgart's midfield, led by creative talents like A. Stiller and J. Vagnoman, looks to control the game and pose problems for HSV's defence. However, HSV's home advantage and Poulsen's form could be decisive in a closely fought match.
Key facts
- 1.VfB Stuttgart leads head-to-head with 12 wins to Hamburger SV's 5 in 20 matches.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.4 goals, indicating open games.
- 3.Both teams have 3 points from 4 games, sitting near the bottom of the league.
- 4.VfB Stuttgart has a significantly better goal difference than Hamburger SV this season.
- 5.Hamburger SV's key attackers Grønbæk, Daka, and Røssing-Lelesiit are confirmed out.
- 6.Y. Poulsen is HSV's main scoring outlet with recent goals and high match ratings.
- 7.VfB Stuttgart midfielders Stiller and Vagnoman show strong creative and attacking stats.
Prediction
The prediction leans towards a home win for Hamburger SV with a 2-1 scoreline. While Stuttgart has the historical edge and better goal difference, HSV's recent scoring form and home performance give them the slight upper hand. Expect a tight game with goals at both ends, but HSV just managing to come out on top.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Hamburger SV
No standout best passers flagged for Hamburger SV
Away — VfB Stuttgart
The verdict
This match is finely balanced, but Hamburger SV's attacking resilience and home advantage should see them edge past VfB Stuttgart. Fans can anticipate a lively encounter with a couple of goals and a narrow victory for the home side.
Prediction generated 10 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Omari
Yellow Card
Poulsen
Karazor
El Khannouss
Demirović
Leweling
Lemke
Fábio Vieira
Adeline
Capaldo
Yellow Card
Nadir
Emerson Stange
Yellow Card
Muheim
Assist: El Ouahdi
Hendriks
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 7 | 5 | 2 | 0 | +8 | 17 |
| 10 |  1899 Hoffenheim | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | 0 | 9 |
| 11 |  Hamburger SV | 7 | 3 | 0 | 4 | -10 | 9 |
| 12 |  1. FC Köln | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -3 | 8 |
| 14 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -7 | 8 |
| 15 |  VfB Stuttgart | 7 | 2 | 0 | 5 | -3 | 6 |
| 16 |  FC Schalke 04 | 7 | 1 | 3 | 3 | -3 | 6 |
Match Statistics
Hamburger SV
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 4B. NadirM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 17W. OmariD
- 20Fábio VieiraF
- 24N. CapaldoD
- 28M. MuheimM
- 33S. BornauwD
- 37L. LemkeM
Substitutes
- 7Z. El OuahdiD
- 9T. MoffiF
- 11A. GrønbækM
- 12S. TangvikG
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 38Alexander Røssing-LelesiitF
- 43S. NandjaD
VfB Stuttgart
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3R. HendriksD
- 4J. VagnomanD
- 6A. StillerM
- 9E. DemirovićF
- 11B. El KhannoussM
- 16A. KarazorM
- 18J. LewelingM
- 24J. ChabotD
- 26D. UndavM
- 29Finn JeltschD
- 41D. SeimenG
Substitutes
- 1F. BredlowG
- 10C. FührichM
- 14L. JaquezD
- 17D. PejčinovićF
- 20L. StergiouD
- 21G. PrömelM
- 22L. AssignonD
- 44L. SauerF
- 47Y. SpaltD
Hamburger SV
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Muheim | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | 0/1 |
| S. Bornauw | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| W. Omari | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes | G | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Nadir | M | 84 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/3 |
| M. Adeline | M | 78 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/2 |
| Z. El Ouahdi | D | 12 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kofi Jeremy Amoako | M | 6 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Grønbæk | M | 12 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Møller Wolfe | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| L. Lemke | M | 78 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| T. Moffi | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Capaldo | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Fábio Vieira | F | 78 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Y. Poulsen | F | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | — | — |
| Otto Emerson Stange | F | 29 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Torunarigha | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Røssing-Lelesiit | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Nandja | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Tangvik | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
VfB Stuttgart
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Finn Jeltsch | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| R. Hendriks | D | 89 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| J. Chabot | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Stiller | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| J. Vagnoman | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| B. El Khannouss | M | 67 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 5 | 2/3 |
| C. Führich | M | 23 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 3/3 |
| A. Karazor | M | 67 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| G. Prömel | M | 23 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| D. Seimen | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Leweling | M | 77 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 4/7 |
| L. Sauer | F | 13 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| L. Assignon | D | 1 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Pejčinović | F | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | — |
| D. Undav | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 7 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| E. Demirović | F | 77 | 5.5 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| L. Stergiou | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Jaquez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Bredlow | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Spalt | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Hamburger SV to win against VfB Stuttgart.
- What score did Fipster predict for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Hamburger SV 2–1 VfB Stuttgart.
- What were the win probabilities for Hamburger SV vs VfB Stuttgart?
- Fipster's model gave Hamburger SV a 35% chance of winning, VfB Stuttgart a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.