Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05
Mainz thrash Hamburg in dominant display
A commanding 5-0 victory sees Mainz run riot at Hamburg's expense.
FSV Mainz 05 dismantled Hamburger SV with a comprehensive 5-0 win, featuring goals from S. Becker, P. Mwene, and a brace by P. Tietz, capped off by R. Königsdörffer in stoppage time. Despite Fipster's low-confidence prediction favouring a narrow home win, the visitors turned the script on its head with a resounding away triumph.
Outcome probability
The new season kicks off with Hamburger SV facing off against FSV Mainz 05 in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both teams will be eager to start their campaigns on a positive note after the summer break, with fresh faces and renewed ambitions shaping their preparations.
Key facts
- 1.Hamburger SV finished 13th last season with 38 points from 34 games.
- 2.FSV Mainz 05 finished 10th last season with 40 points from 34 games.
- 3.Mainz have a better goal difference by 5 goals compared to Hamburger SV last season.
- 4.The predicted halftime score is 0-0, indicating a tight first half.
- 5.The forecasted fulltime score is 2-1 in favour of Hamburger SV.
- 6.FSV Mainz 05 signed goalkeeper A. Schwolow during the summer transfer window.
- 7.The match is expected to feature around 4 total cards, suggesting a competitive encounter.
The context
Hamburger SV and FSV Mainz 05 finished last season in mid-table positions, setting the stage for a competitive fixture. Mainz have bolstered their squad with the arrival of goalkeeper A. Schwolow, adding depth to their defensive options. Both sides will be looking to establish early momentum in this regular season opener.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Hamburger SV
Away — FSV Mainz 05
Analysis
The match is expected to be tight, with probabilities for all outcomes closely matched. The first half is likely to be cagey, reflected in the predicted 0-0 halftime score, as both teams feel each other out. Despite Mainz's slightly better goal difference last season, Hamburger SV hold a slight edge in the overall probabilities for a home win. The predicted 2-1 scoreline suggests a competitive second half where the hosts manage to edge ahead.
Prediction
We forecast a narrow 2-1 victory for Hamburger SV. The first half should remain goalless as both sides settle, but the home team is expected to find the net twice in the second half, just enough to overcome Mainz's challenge. Expect a competitive game with a handful of cards, reflecting the intensity of a season opener.
The verdict
This fixture sets the tone for what could be an intriguing season. Hamburger SV's slight advantage and home win prediction make them favourites to start with three points, but Mainz's recent signing and competitive edge mean they won't go quietly. Fans can anticipate a spirited contest with a close finish.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Becker
Assist: Sano
Caci
Yellow Card
El Ouahdi
Yellow Card
Mwene
Assist: Becker
Nadir
Adeline
Torunarigha
Tietz
Assist: Becker
Moffi
Becker
Caci
Tietz
Assist: Lee Jae-Sung
Møller Wolfe
Mwene
Yellow Card
Sano
Lee Jae-Sung
Posch
Königsdörffer
Assist: Mwene
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Borussia Dortmund | 4 | 4 | 0 | 0 | +7 | 12 |
| 5 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +5 | 7 |
| 6 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +4 | 7 |
| 7 |  SV Elversberg | 4 | 2 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 7 |
| 14 |  VfB Stuttgart | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -3 | 3 |
| 15 |  Hamburger SV | 4 | 1 | 0 | 3 | -11 | 3 |
| 16 |  SC Paderborn 07 | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -4 | 1 |
Match Statistics
Hamburger SV
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1Daniel Heuer FernandesG
- 3D. Møller WolfeM
- 4B. NadirM
- 5M. AdelineM
- 7Z. El OuahdiM
- 9T. MoffiF
- 11A. GrønbækM
- 21N. RembergM
- 23J. TorunarighaD
- 24N. CapaldoD
- 33S. BornauwD
Substitutes
- 12S. TangvikG
- 15Y. PoulsenF
- 18B. JattaM
- 19Otto Emerson StangeF
- 20Fábio VieiraM
- 22Kofi Jeremy AmoakoM
- 27P. DakaF
- 37L. LemkeD
- 43S. NandjaD
FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 2P. MweneM
- 3F. GruberD
- 4S. PoschD
- 6K. SanoM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 9P. TietzF
- 10N. AmiriM
- 19A. CaciM
- 23S. BeckerF
- 48K. PotulskiD
Substitutes
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 16S. BellD
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 20O. RuoppiM
- 21D. da CostaD
- 24S. KawasakiM
- 40M. KinzigG
- 47R. NakuzolaD
Hamburger SV
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Daka | F | 44 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| N. Remberg | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otto Emerson Stange | F | 26 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| T. Moffi | F | 64 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Nadir | M | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Grønbæk | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Fábio Vieira | M | 44 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| D. Møller Wolfe | M | 84 | 5.8 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Daniel Heuer Fernandes | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Bornauw | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Adeline | M | 46 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Lemke | D | 6 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. El Ouahdi | M | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Nandja | D | 44 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Capaldo | D | 90 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| J. Torunarigha | D | 46 | 5.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kofi Jeremy Amoako | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Jatta | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Tangvik | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Poulsen | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| P. Tietz | F | 90 | 9.5 | 2 | — | 4 | 2 | 2 | 1/2 |
| S. Becker | F | 68 | 9.2 | 1 | 2 | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1/2 |
| P. Mwene | M | 90 | 8.1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Lee Jae-Sung | M | 88 | 7.8 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| S. Posch | D | 88 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| K. Sano | M | 88 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| F. Gruber | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| R. Königsdörffer | F | 22 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| K. Potulski | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Nakuzola | D | 2 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. da Costa | D | 9 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Ruoppi | M | 2 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Maloney | M | 2 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Schwolow | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| N. Amiri | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| A. Caci | M | 81 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Bell | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Hollerbach | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Kawasaki | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kinzig | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Hamburger SV to win against FSV Mainz 05.
- What score did Fipster predict for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Hamburger SV 2–1 FSV Mainz 05.
- What were the win probabilities for Hamburger SV vs FSV Mainz 05?
- Fipster's model gave Hamburger SV a 35% chance of winning, FSV Mainz 05 a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.