Guimaraes vs Moreirense
Moreirense snatch late draw at Guimaraes
Tiago Andrade's opener looked set to secure Moreirense a shock point until T. Borevković struck deep into stoppage time.
Moreirense took the lead shortly after the break through Tiago Andrade, putting Guimaraes on the back foot. Just as it seemed Moreirense would hold on for a famous win, T. Borevković rescued a point for the hosts with a dramatic goal in the sixth minute of added time. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a narrow home victory, turning what looked like a straightforward win into a shared spoils affair.
Outcome probability
As the regular season unfolds, Guimaraes and Moreirense prepare to clash in what promises to be a closely fought encounter. Both sides have struggled to find consistent form, but Guimaraes hold a slight edge in recent meetings and league position.
Match factors
Guimaraes midfield creativity edge
Miguel Nogueira leads Guimaraes with 2 assists, providing key chances to likely scorers like Samu and Ndoye
Samu's recent scoring form
Samu has scored 2 goals in last 5 matches, above average for midfielders, boosting Guimaraes' attack
Guimaraes' home defensive solidity
Guimaraes concedes only 0.33 goals per home game, aiding their predicted 1-0 win
Full squad availability for Guimaraes
No confirmed injuries for Guimaraes ensures all key scorers and assisters are available to influence the match
Moreirense's defensive vulnerabilities
Moreirense concedes over 2 goals per away game, likely to struggle against Guimaraes' attack
The context
This match sees Guimaraes and Moreirense both sitting on 4 points, with Guimaraes just ahead in 13th place compared to Moreirense's 15th. Historically, Guimaraes have dominated their head-to-heads, winning 11 of 19 encounters, which adds an extra layer of confidence for their supporters.
Key insights
Miguel Nogueira
Guimaraes
Leads Guimaraes with 2 assists, providing key chances to likely scorers like Samu and Ndoye.
Primeira Liga 26/272 assists in 6 games, 3 starts, 44 avg mins/game
Samu
Guimaraes
Scored 2 goals in last 5 matches, above average for midfielders, boosting Guimaraes' attack.
Primeira Liga 26/272 goals in last 5 games, 6 starts, 88.2 avg mins/game
Analysis
Guimaraes boast a better goal difference this season, suggesting a more balanced attack and defence. Their midfield creativity, led by Miguel Nogueira with 2 assists, is expected to unlock Moreirense's leaky defence, which concedes over 2 goals per away game. Samu, the in-form midfielder with 2 goals in the last 5 matches, is the prime candidate to break the deadlock. Moreirense's defensive vulnerabilities and Guimaraes' home defensive solidity, conceding just 0.33 goals per game, point towards a narrow but controlled home win.
Key facts
- 1.Guimaraes have won 11 of 19 meetings against Moreirense.
- 2.Guimaraes hold a better goal difference (+5) this season.
- 3.Both teams have 4 points, but Guimaraes rank 13th, Moreirense 15th.
- 4.Guimaraes concede only 0.33 goals per home game this season.
- 5.Moreirense concede over 2 goals per away game this season.
Prediction
We predict Guimaraes to take the lead by halftime and hold on for a 1-0 victory. The match is expected to be tight, with a total of around 4 cards, reflecting a competitive but disciplined contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Guimaraes
Away — Moreirense
The verdict
In summary, Guimaraes' slight statistical and tactical advantages should see them edge out Moreirense in a low-scoring affair. Expect a disciplined defensive display and a crucial goal from Guimaraes' midfield to settle the tie.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Gustavo
Andrade
Assist: Vonić
Nogueira
Alan
Doucet
Kiko Bondoso
Vonić
Andrade
Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça
Camara
John
Borevković
Assist: Miguel Nogueira
Match Statistics
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 7O. CamaraM
- 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
- 9A. JakupovicF
- 10AlanM
- 11GustavoM
- 13João MendesD
- 21T. BorevkovićD
- 23T. StrataD
- 28Thiago BalieiroD
- 44L. DoucetM
- 48O. ZychG
Substitutes
- 2Miguel MagaD
- 4Óscar RivasD
- 5A. SidibéD
- 6M. MitrovićM
- 16BeniM
- 17Miguel NogueiraM
- 19V. AnderssonM
- 20SamuM
- 22J. CastilloG
- 29V. OuotroF
- 56S. VerdiM
- 82F. DiasD
Moreirense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 7Manuel Ascenção Bebiano MendonçaM
- 10Kiko BondosoM
- 13André FerreiraG
- 19Tiago AndradeM
- 23N. JohnM
- 26MaracásD
- 27KikoD
- 65Guilherme LiberatoM
- 66Gilberto BatistaD
- 76Dinis PintoD
- 79L. VonićF
Substitutes
- 1AranhaG
- 2Leandro Henrique Sousa SantosD
- 4Kevyn MonteiroD
- 8M. StjepanovićM
- 9A. Duville-ParsemainF
- 11LandersonF
- 17Álvaro MartínezD
- 21Rodri AlonsoM
- 28Chipyoka SongaF
- 32JoséD
- 99MaranhãoF
Guimaraes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Thiago Balieiro | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Beni | M | 33 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| João Mendes | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| T. Borevković | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| L. Doucet | M | 57 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gonçalo Nogueira | M | 57 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Strata | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/7 |
| O. Camara | M | 72 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Samu | M | 33 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| M. Mitrović | M | 33 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Alan | M | 57 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Gustavo | M | 12 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Miguel Nogueira | M | 78 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/5 |
| O. Zych | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Andersson | M | 18 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| A. Jakupovic | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Maga | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Óscar Rivas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Castillo | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Sidibé | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Ouotro | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Verdi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Dias | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Moreirense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Tiago Andrade | M | 66 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 4/5 |
| Maracás | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gilberto Batista | D | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kiko | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| L. Vonić | F | 63 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Kevyn Monteiro | D | 1 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Ferreira | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodri Alonso | M | 24 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| N. John | M | 89 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Manuel Ascenção Bebiano Mendonça | M | 67 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| Guilherme Liberato | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kiko Bondoso | M | 63 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Dinis Pinto | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Landerson | F | 23 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Maranhão | F | 27 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chipyoka Songa | F | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Leandro Henrique Sousa Santos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aranha | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Stjepanović | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Martínez | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Duville-Parsemain | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Guimaraes to win against Moreirense.
- What score did Fipster predict for Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Guimaraes 1–0 Moreirense.
- What were the win probabilities for Guimaraes vs Moreirense?
- Fipster's model gave Guimaraes a 85% chance of winning, Moreirense a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.