Guimaraes vs Maritimo
Guimaraes cruise to commanding win
Jakupovic shines with a brace as Guimaraes dismantle Maritimo 5-0
Guimaraes delivered a dominant performance in the Primeira Liga, thrashing Maritimo 5-0. A. Jakupovic was the standout with two goals, supported by strikes from O. Camara and Y. Mosquera, plus an own goal from Paulo Henrique. While Fipster predicted a home win with high confidence, the emphatic margin far exceeded expectations.
Outcome probability
As the regular season unfolds, Guimaraes and Maritimo face off in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both teams have had their struggles this season, but Guimaraes look poised to claim a narrow victory.
Match factors
Maritimo's key players show better individual attacking stats
Maritimo has multiple players with goals and assists this season, while Guimaraes has no top scorers listed, indicating Maritimo's attacking players have more direct impact
Romain Correia's passing and offensive threat from defense
Correia leads Maritimo in passes per game with high accuracy and has scored a goal, providing both defensive stability and offensive support
Maritimo's attacking players have recent goal involvement
Players like Martín Tejón and Maurice Osei Boakye have recent assists and goals, showing form that could influence the match
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have no confirmed out players, so full squads available, making tactical and form factors more decisive
The context
Guimaraes currently sit 15th in the league with 5 points from 7 games, while Maritimo are slightly better placed at 11th with 8 points from 8 games. Neither side has been prolific in front of goal, and both will be eager to improve their standings as the season progresses.
Key insights
- A
Adrián Butzke
Maritimo
Key attacking threat with 1 goal this season, consistently involved in offensive plays.
Primeira Liga 26/271 goal in 7 games
- R
Romain Correia
Maritimo
Leads team in passing with high accuracy and contributes offensively from defence.
Primeira Liga 26/2757.9 passes per game at 89% accuracy, 1 goal
Martín Tejón
Maritimo
Creative midfielder with 1 assist, starting all games and creating chances.
Primeira Liga 26/271 assist in 7 starts, avg 84 min/game
Maurice Osei Boakye
Maritimo
Impact substitute with good assist record, likely to create chances if given minutes.
Primeira Liga 26/271 assist in 7 appearances, avg 16 min/game
Analysis
Maritimo boast some attacking talent, with players like Adrián Butzke and Martín Tejón contributing goals and assists this season. Romain Correia stands out for his passing accuracy and offensive support from defence. However, Guimaraes' home advantage and tactical discipline could prove decisive. Both teams have players with disciplinary risks, such as Raphael Guzzo and Igor Julião, who will need to keep their cool to avoid costly bookings. The prediction leans towards a tight 1-0 win for Guimaraes, with the halftime score reflecting the same margin.
Key facts
- 1.Guimaraes are 15th in the league with 5 points from 7 games (W1 D2 L4).
- 2.Maritimo are 11th with 8 points from 8 games (W2 D2 L4).
- 3.The predicted final score is 1-0 in favour of Guimaraes.
- 4.Halftime score is also predicted as 1-0, indicating an early goal and tight defence.
- 5.Four cards are expected in the match, suggesting a moderately physical game.
- 6.Maritimo's Romain Correia leads his team in passing with 57.9 passes per game at 89% accuracy.
- 7.Maritimo's Adrián Butzke and Martín Tejón have contributed goals and assists this season.
- 8.Guimaraes have no standout top scorers this season, relying on team effort.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a 1-0 victory for Guimaraes, with the home side taking the lead by halftime and holding on to secure all three points. The match is expected to be competitive, with a moderate number of cards likely to be shown, reflecting the intensity of the contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Guimaraes
No standout playmakers flagged for Guimaraes
Away — Maritimo
The verdict
In summary, Guimaraes are favoured to edge out Maritimo in a low-scoring affair. The home side's ability to maintain a slender lead and manage the game will be key, while Maritimo will need to find a way past a disciplined defence to avoid a frustrating defeat.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:56 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Gustavo
Yellow Card
Nogueira
Yellow Card
Borevković
Yellow Card
Raphael Guzzo
Yellow Card
Tavares
Yellow Card
Jakupovic
Tavares
Paulo Henrique (OG)
Camara
Rodrigo Andrade
Yellow Card
Samu
Yellow Card
Nogueira
Gustavo
Dominguez
Raphael Guzzo
Jakupovic
Assist: Samu
Samu
Jakupovic
Sidibé
Tejón
Butzke
Mosquera
Assist: Alan
Match Statistics
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5A. SidibéD
- 7O. CamaraM
- 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
- 9A. JakupovicF
- 11GustavoM
- 13João MendesD
- 16BeniM
- 20SamuM
- 21T. BorevkovićD
- 23T. StrataD
- 98Lucas FurtadoG
Substitutes
- 2Miguel MagaD
- 4Óscar RivasD
- 6M. MitrovićM
- 10AlanM
- 15Y. MosqueraD
- 17Miguel NogueiraF
- 19V. AnderssonM
- 24A. NdoyeF
- 29V. OuotroF
- 44L. DoucetM
- 48O. ZychG
Maritimo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Igor JuliãoD
- 6Rodrigo AndradeM
- 8M. DominguezM
- 10Martín TejónM
- 14Raphael GuzzoM
- 15Tomás TavaresM
- 17Adrián ButzkeF
- 22G. SzalaiD
- 23Paulo HenriqueD
- 30Fran VieitesG
- 44Romain CorreiaD
Substitutes
- 1Gonçalo TabuaçoG
- 3N. OgbetaD
- 4Rafael FernandesD
- 5Nilton VarelaD
- 11M. DiouriF
- 12M. BassouaminaF
- 13Alfonso PastorG
- 21I. AlaniM
- 27S. BambaF
- 35B. LimbombeF
- 66I. AyumaM
- 90Maurice Osei BoakyeF
Guimaraes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Jakupovic | F | 78 | 8.6 | 2 | — | 5 | 3 | 1 | 1/3 |
| O. Camara | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 7 | 3 | — | 2/2 |
| Y. Mosquera | D | 12 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Samu | M | 78 | 7.7 | — | 1 | — | — | 5 | — |
| A. Sidibé | D | 78 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Strata | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| T. Borevković | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| João Mendes | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Beni | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan | M | 12 | 6.9 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| V. Andersson | M | 24 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Furtado | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gustavo | M | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| A. Ndoye | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Nogueira | M | 66 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Doucet | M | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Ouotro | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Nogueira | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Zych | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Óscar Rivas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Maga | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Mitrović | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Maritimo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Diouri | F | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Maurice Osei Boakye | F | 4 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raphael Guzzo | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Adrián Butzke | F | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| Romain Correia | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Dominguez | M | 69 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Szalai | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| I. Alani | M | 21 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Bassouamina | F | 10 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fran Vieites | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martín Tejón | M | 80 | 5.8 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Tomás Tavares | M | 46 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Julião | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Rodrigo Andrade | M | 90 | 5.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Nilton Varela | D | 21 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 90 | 4.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| Alfonso Pastor | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Fernandes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gonçalo Tabuaço | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Bamba | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Ayuma | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Limbombe | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Ogbeta | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Guimaraes to win against Maritimo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Guimaraes 1–0 Maritimo.
- What were the win probabilities for Guimaraes vs Maritimo?
- Fipster's model gave Guimaraes a 85% chance of winning, Maritimo a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.