Guimaraes vs FC Porto
Porto sneak past Guimaraes in tight contest
A late strike from Martim Fernandes seals a narrow 2-1 victory for FC Porto.
FC Porto edged out Guimaraes 2-1 in a closely fought Primeira Liga clash. Borja Sainz gave Porto the lead before Alan levelled for Guimaraes, but Martim Fernandes' goal after the break proved decisive. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a draw, adding a touch of drama to the fixture.
Outcome probability
This match between Guimaraes and FC Porto promises a balanced contest, with both sides expected to find the net after a cautious first half. Fans can anticipate a tactical battle with goals coming later in the game.
Match factors
Jakupovic's home scoring form vs Porto's defense
Jakupovic has scored 2 goals in last 2 home games, exploiting Porto's occasional defensive lapses at away matches
FC Porto's superior scoring and defensive record
Porto leads league with 25 goals scored and only 4 conceded, indicating strong overall team quality
Porto's unbeaten winning streak vs Guimaraes' mixed form
Porto is on a 5-game winning streak while Guimaraes has struggled with only 2 wins in 9 games
Gabri Veiga's dual threat as scorer and assister
Veiga leads Porto in goals (5) and assists (4), making him a key creative and finishing threat
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from missing key players
The context
FC Porto currently leads the league with a perfect record of 10 wins from 10 games, boasting a strong goal difference of +21. Guimaraes sit 13th with 8 points from 9 games and a neutral goal difference, highlighting the gulf in recent form and league standing between the two sides.
Key insights
Arnel Jakupovic
Guimaraes
Jakupovic has been in fine form at home, scoring 2 goals in his last 2 home games, making him a key threat against Porto's defence.
Primeira Liga 26/272 goals in last 2 home games
Gabri Veiga
FC Porto
Veiga is both the top scorer and assister for Porto, with 5 goals and 4 assists, making him a dual threat in attack.
Primeira Liga 26/275 goals and 4 assists in 10 games
Analysis
Historically, FC Porto have dominated this fixture, winning 16 of the last 20 meetings against Guimaraes. However, recent form suggests a tighter contest; Porto are on a five-game winning streak while Guimaraes have struggled for consistency. Key players to watch include Guimaraes' Arnel Jakupovic, who has scored twice in his last two home games, and FC Porto's Gabri Veiga, the team's top scorer and assister with 5 goals and 4 assists this season. Both teams have full squads available, so expect a competitive match with tactical discipline and few early goals.
Key facts
- 1.FC Porto leads the league with 30 points from 10 games (W10 D0 L0).
- 2.Guimaraes are 13th with 8 points from 9 games (W2 D2 L5).
- 3.FC Porto has a goal difference of +21; Guimaraes have a goal difference of 0.
- 4.In 20 head-to-head matches, FC Porto has won 16, Guimaraes 2, with 2 draws.
- 5.Arnel Jakupovic has scored 2 goals in his last 2 home games for Guimaraes.
- 6.Gabri Veiga leads FC Porto with 5 goals and 4 assists this season.
- 7.The predicted halftime score is 0-0, with goals expected in the second half.
- 8.Both teams have full squads available with no confirmed injuries.
Prediction
The most likely outcome is a 1-1 draw, with a goalless first half giving way to goals in the second. Both teams have the attacking quality to break the deadlock, but defensive solidity and cautious play early on suggest a balanced finish.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Guimaraes
Away — FC Porto
The verdict
In summary, this fixture is finely poised with both Guimaraes and FC Porto capable of scoring but unlikely to dominate. Expect a competitive match that ends all square, reflecting the close probabilities and balanced team strengths.
Prediction generated 2 Nov 2026, 22:08 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Yellow Card
João Mendes
Yellow Card
Borevković
Yellow Card
Sainz
Assist: Baio
Sainz
Yellow Card
Rosario
Yellow Card
Samu
Sainz
Rosario
Samu
Bednarek
Gabri Veiga
Hwang In-Beom
Yellow Card
Jakupovic
Alan
Assist: Gustavo
Baio
Gustavo
Sidibé
Beni
Fernandes
Assist: Pepê Aquino
Borevković
Pepê Aquino
Varela
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Guimaraes
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5A. SidibéD
- 7O. CamaraM
- 8Gonçalo NogueiraM
- 9A. JakupovicF
- 11GustavoM
- 13João MendesD
- 16BeniM
- 20SamuM
- 21T. BorevkovićD
- 23T. StrataD
- 98Lucas FurtadoG
Substitutes
- 2Miguel MagaD
- 4Óscar RivasD
- 6M. MitrovićM
- 10AlanM
- 17Miguel NogueiraF
- 19V. AnderssonM
- 24A. NdoyeF
- 28Thiago BalieiroD
- 29V. OuotroF
- 44L. DoucetM
- 48O. ZychG
FC Porto
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4J. KiwiorD
- 5J. BednarekD
- 8Victor Mow FroholdtM
- 9SamuF
- 10Gabri VeigaM
- 11Pepê AquinoF
- 12Z. SanusiD
- 13P. RosarioM
- 17Borja SainzF
- 20Alberto BaioD
- 99Diogo CostaG
Substitutes
- 14Cláudio RamosG
- 16Hwang In-BeomM
- 18N. PérezD
- 19André SilvaF
- 21D. PrpićD
- 22A. VarelaM
- 29S. GiménezF
- 33SouzaD
- 42S. FofanaM
- 52Martim FernandesD
- 74Francisco MouraD
- 77O. PietuszewskiF
Guimaraes
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan | M | 26 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Gustavo | M | 80 | 6.8 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Miguel Nogueira | F | 10 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Ndoye | F | 19 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| A. Sidibé | D | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Gonçalo Nogueira | M | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Strata | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| A. Jakupovic | F | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Thiago Balieiro | D | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Beni | M | 84 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Borevković | D | 92 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| O. Camara | M | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| L. Doucet | M | 6 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samu | M | 64 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Lucas Furtado | G | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| João Mendes | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Óscar Rivas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Andersson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Mitrović | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Ouotro | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Zych | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Maga | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
FC Porto
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Diogo Costa | G | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Borja Sainz | F | 58 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Martim Fernandes | D | 32 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| J. Kiwior | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pepê Aquino | F | 94 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Alberto Baio | D | 78 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| J. Bednarek | D | 66 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Silva | F | 32 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3/3 |
| N. Pérez | D | 24 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Samu | F | 58 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| S. Giménez | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Hwang In-Beom | M | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Victor Mow Froholdt | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Gabri Veiga | M | 66 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| A. Varela | M | 32 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Z. Sanusi | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| P. Rosario | M | 58 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Francisco Moura | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cláudio Ramos | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Fofana | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Prpić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Pietuszewski | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Souza | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Guimaraes vs FC Porto?
- Fipster's AI model predicted a draw between Guimaraes and FC Porto.
- What score did Fipster predict for Guimaraes vs FC Porto?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Guimaraes 1–1 FC Porto.
- What were the win probabilities for Guimaraes vs FC Porto?
- Fipster's model gave Guimaraes a 33% chance of winning, FC Porto a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.