Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam
Sparta Rotterdam snatches narrow win at Groningen
A five-goal thriller sees Sparta edge out Groningen despite an early home lead.
Groningen started brightly with J. Ondrejka's early strike, but Sparta Rotterdam responded strongly with goals from Cedric Hatenboer and M. Zonneveld before Groningen's T. van Bergen levelled the scores. The decisive blow came late in the second half as Sparta secured a 3-2 victory. This result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a Groningen win, proving the visitors' resilience in a tight contest.
Outcome probability
Groningen and Sparta Rotterdam are set for an entertaining clash in the regular season's 11th round. Both sides have shown attacking intent this season, promising a high-scoring encounter that could keep fans on the edge of their seats.
Match factors
Groningen's strong midfield defensive work
Van der Werff's high tackle and interception rates provide midfield stability and disrupt opponent attacks
Sparta's defensive tackling superiority
Martes leads with 3.4 tackles per game, significantly above league average, bolstering Sparta's defense
Groningen's scoring consistency at home
Groningen has scored in all last 5 home games, showing strong attacking form
Groningen's defensive absences weaken backline
Three defenders confirmed out, potentially reducing defensive solidity and increasing goal concession risk
The context
Groningen currently sit 8th in the league with 15 points from 10 games, while Sparta Rotterdam find themselves 14th with 9 points from 9 matches. Historically, Sparta have the upper hand in head-to-head meetings, winning 9 of 17 encounters, but Groningen's home form and league position give them a slight edge here.
Key insights
- D
D. van der Werff
Groningen
Van der Werff’s high tackle rate disrupts opposition attacks and stabilises midfield.
Eredivisie 26/271.77 tackles per game in this competition and season.
- L
L. Martes
Sparta Rotterdam
Martes’ tackling prowess bolsters Sparta’s defensive resilience despite their league position.
Eredivisie 26/273.4 tackles per game, well above league average.
- B
B. Willumsson
Groningen
Willumsson’s consistent goal threat is key to Groningen’s attacking success at home.
Eredivisie 26/27Multiple goals in recent matches with high match ratings.
Analysis
The match is expected to be open and competitive, with both teams capable of finding the net early. Groningen's midfield, led by D. van der Werff, provides strong defensive work and attacking support, while Sparta's L. Martes bolsters their defence with impressive tackling stats. However, Groningen's defensive absences could make for a thrilling, goal-filled game. Past meetings average over three goals per match, supporting the prediction of a 4-3 scoreline.
Key facts
- 1.Groningen ranks 8th with 15 points from 10 games (W4 D3 L3).
- 2.Sparta Rotterdam ranks 14th with 9 points from 9 games (W2 D3 L4).
- 3.Sparta Rotterdam has won 9 of 17 head-to-head meetings against Groningen.
- 4.Average goals in head-to-head matches is 3.1, indicating high-scoring games.
- 5.Groningen has scored in all of their last 5 home matches.
- 6.Three Groningen defenders are confirmed out, weakening their backline.
- 7.D. van der Werff averages 1.77 tackles per game, providing midfield stability.
- 8.L. Martes leads Sparta with 3.4 tackles per game, strengthening their defence.
Prediction
We foresee a lively first half ending 2-2, reflecting the attacking strengths and defensive vulnerabilities on both sides. Ultimately, Groningen's home advantage and consistent scoring form should see them edge out Sparta Rotterdam by a single goal in a 4-3 thriller.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Groningen
Away — Sparta Rotterdam
The verdict
This fixture promises excitement and goals, with both teams eager to claim vital points. Expect a nail-biting finish as Groningen narrowly secures the win, continuing their strong home performances this season.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 17:42 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ondrejka
Assist: Willumsson
de Jonge
Yellow Card
Hatenboer
Assist: Young
Zonneveld
van Bergen
Assist: Hateboer
Martins Indi
Yellow Card
Verschuren
Toornstra
Martes
Yellow Card
Babadi
Zonneveld
van Bergen
Hatenboer
Yellow Card
Willumsson
Schreuders
Ondrejka
Goal
van Bergen
Rente
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  PSV Eindhoven | 12 | 8 | 2 | 2 | +25 | 26 |
| 8 |  GO Ahead Eagles | 12 | 4 | 5 | 3 | -3 | 17 |
| 9 |  Groningen | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | +1 | 15 |
| 10 |  Cambuur | 12 | 4 | 3 | 5 | -2 | 15 |
| 11 |  Utrecht | 11 | 3 | 3 | 5 | -12 | 12 |
| 12 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -8 | 12 |
| 13 |  PEC Zwolle | 12 | 3 | 3 | 6 | -11 | 12 |
Match Statistics
Groningen
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1E. VaessenG
- 3T. BlokzijlD
- 4M. CsingerD
- 5M. RenteD
- 8T. de JongeM
- 9B. WillumssonF
- 11J. OndrejkaF
- 14J. SchreudersF
- 24P. ClementM
- 26T. van BergenM
- 33H. HateboerD
Substitutes
- 2Wouter PrinsD
- 12M. BrandisD
- 13L. ŠtubljarG
- 16A. NordinM
- 18T. LandM
- 19O. ZawadaF
- 20Nils EggensF
- 29Tyrique MerceraD
- 30P. BoevinkG
- 42J. MosselaarD
- 44Besnik MashukuM
- 53J. HallM
Sparta Rotterdam
5-4-1Starting XI
- 1M. BrouwerG
- 2L. MartesD
- 3M. YoungD
- 4B. Martins IndiD
- 5B. KuipersD
- 6N. VerschurenD
- 7M. van BergenM
- 8Cedric HatenboerM
- 9M. ZonneveldF
- 10J. ToornstraM
- 11I. BabadiM
Substitutes
- 12B. ReithD
- 13J. BaasM
- 14Teo QuinteroD
- 15G. VianelloD
- 16A. RoaldsøyM
- 17C. TerhoF
- 18Robin van CruijsenM
- 20F. BednarekG
- 21S. MitoF
- 22Joel IdehoF
- 30P. KuiperG
Groningen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Ondrejka | F | 83 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | 4 | 1/2 |
| T. van Bergen | M | 75 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 5 | 4 | 2 | 0/3 |
| B. Willumsson | F | 83 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| P. Clement | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| H. Hateboer | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| T. de Jonge | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| J. Schreuders | F | 83 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| O. Zawada | F | 3 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| T. Blokzijl | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nils Eggens | F | 7 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Csinger | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rente | D | 87 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wouter Prins | D | 7 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Land | M | 15 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Vaessen | G | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Besnik Mashuku | M | 7 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Mosselaar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Nordin | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tyrique Mercera | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Brandis | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Štubljar | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Boevink | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Hall | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sparta Rotterdam
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Zonneveld | F | 71 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 4 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| M. Brouwer | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Young | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Teo Quintero | D | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Mito | F | 19 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Cedric Hatenboer | M | 90 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| M. van Bergen | M | 87 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| B. Kuipers | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| I. Babadi | M | 71 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| N. Verschuren | D | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Martins Indi | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Toornstra | M | 55 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Robin van Cruijsen | M | 35 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| L. Martes | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| G. Vianello | D | 3 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Terho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Joel Ideho | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Baas | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Kuiper | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Bednarek | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Roaldsøy | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| B. Reith | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Groningen to win against Sparta Rotterdam.
- What score did Fipster predict for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Groningen 4–3 Sparta Rotterdam.
- What were the win probabilities for Groningen vs Sparta Rotterdam?
- Fipster's model gave Groningen a 50% chance of winning, Sparta Rotterdam a 25% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 50% confidence — a medium-confidence call.