Gremio vs Vitoria
Match recap
Gremio beat Vitoria 2–0 in their Serie A fixture. Camutanga and Amuzu scored for Gremio. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.56 for Gremio versus 0.59 for Vitoria. Gremio sit 18th in the Serie A table while Vitoria are 14th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-1 Gremio win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
Gremio and Vitoria face off in the seventh round of the regular season, with Gremio looking to capitalize on their home advantage and recent form to extend their lead in the standings.
Match factors
Gremio's attacking trio synergy
Carlos Vinícius leads scoring with 10 goals, supported by Pavón's creativity and Amuzu's assists, forming a potent attack
Vitoria's Rene in hot scoring form
Rene has 9 goals this season with 4 in last 5 games, posing a significant threat despite away challenges
Gremio's home scoring consistency
Gremio averages 1.57 goals at home, with recent positive scoring streaks supporting predicted 3 goals
Vitoria missing key midfielder Gabriel Baralhas
Gabriel Baralhas, a key midfielder and assist provider, is confirmed out, weakening Vitoria's creativity
Gremio's defensive solidity with Gustavo Martins
Defender Gustavo Martins contributes defensively and offensively with 3 goals, aiding Gremio's control at the back
The context
Gremio currently sit 18th with 30 points, while Vitoria are 12th with 36 points. Historically, Gremio have dominated this fixture, winning 11 of their 19 meetings, which sets the tone for this encounter.
Key insights
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Top scorer with 10 goals, key focal point in attack and strong home scoring record.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 28 appearances, 77.5 avg mins/game
C. Pavón
Gremio
Creative winger and top assister with 4 assists, crucial for set-pieces and chance creation.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 26 appearances, 76.2 avg mins/game
Francis Amuzu
Gremio
Key offensive threat with goal and 3 assists, supports forward line effectively.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 24 appearances, 64.7 avg mins/game
Rene
Vitoria
Leading scorer with 9 goals, in strong recent form with 4 goals in last 5 games.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 23 appearances, 69.3 avg mins/game
- G
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
Defensive stalwart contributing 3 goals, aiding both defence and attack.
Serie A 26/273 goals this season, consistent starter
Analysis
Gremio's attacking trio, led by Carlos Vinícius with 10 goals this season, supported by the creative C. Pavón and the assist threat of Francis Amuzu, gives them a clear edge. Vitoria's Rene is in good scoring form with 9 goals, but the absence of key midfielder Gabriel Baralhas weakens their creativity. Defensively, Gremio's Gustavo Martins adds solidity and goal threat, making it tough for Vitoria to find an equalizer.
Key facts
- 1.Gremio have won 11 of 19 meetings against Vitoria.
- 2.Average goals in head-to-head matches is 2.1, indicating a multi-goal game.
- 3.Gremio rank 18th with 30 points; Vitoria 12th with 36 points.
- 4.Francis Amuzu scored in this fixture, highlighting his offensive impact.
- 5.Carlos Vinícius leads Gremio with 10 goals this season.
- 6.Vitoria's Rene has 9 goals, including 4 in the last 5 games.
- 7.Gabriel Baralhas is out, weakening Vitoria's midfield creativity.
- 8.Gremio average 1.57 goals per home game this season.
Prediction
Expect Gremio to take an early lead and maintain control throughout, finishing with a 3-1 victory. The halftime scoreline of 1-0 aligns with their consistent home scoring, while Vitoria may manage a consolation goal late on.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Gremio
Away — Vitoria
The verdict
Gremio's blend of attacking firepower and defensive resilience should see them comfortably through this fixture. Vitoria will need to regroup quickly to avoid further setbacks in the league.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 19:09 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Camutanga (OG)
Penalty cancelled
Amuzu
Assist: Weverton
Willian
Nardoni
Kayzer
Yellow Card
Nathan
Yellow Card
Nathan
Camutanga
Marlon
Amuzu
Enamorado
Erick
Matheuzinho
Mec
Yellow Card
Kayzer
Cantalapiedra
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 13 |  Vasco DA Gama | 31 | 10 | 8 | 13 | -6 | 38 |
| 14 |  Vitoria | 32 | 10 | 8 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Gremio
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 7C. PavónD
- 9F. AmuzuM
- 10WillianM
- 23MarlonD
- 33L. PérezM
- 44VieryD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 99J. EnamoradoM
Substitutes
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 4W. KannemannD
- 11M. MonsalveM
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 21TetêF
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 77André HenriqueF
Vitoria
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1Lucas ArcanjoG
- 4CamutangaD
- 6E. MartínezM
- 10MatheuzinhoF
- 13RamonD
- 25CacáD
- 33ErickF
- 44Gabriel BaralhasM
- 45NathanD
- 79Renato KayzerF
- 95CaíqueM
Substitutes
- 8RonaldM
- 12D. TarziaD
- 17Aitor CantalapiedraF
- 22Gabriel VasconcelosG
- 23FabrícioF
- 26EdenilsonM
- 28AndersonM
- 31R. LópezF
- 59GeanM
- 77NerisD
- 83JamersonD
- 88Zé VitorM
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Francis Amuzu | M | 86 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | 1/4 |
| Marlon(C) | D | 76 | 7.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Viery | D | 102 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Cristian Pavón | D | 102 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Leonel Pérez | M | 102 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Fabián Balbuena | D | 102 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weverton | G | 102 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| José Enamorado | M | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/4 |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 102 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Juan Nardoni | M | 56 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Willian | M | 56 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Walter Kannemann | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Braithwaite | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Henrique | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | 26 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | 46 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Miguel Monsalve | M | 46 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | F | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Tetê | F | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Vitoria
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Caique Gonçalves | M | 102 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Gabriel Baralhas(C) | M | 102 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | — |
| Matheuzinho | F | 87 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Erick | F | 87 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
| Ramon | D | 102 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Emmanuel Martínez | M | 102 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Renato Kayzer | F | 93 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Lucas Arcanjo | G | 102 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cacá | D | 102 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Nathan Mendes | D | 75 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Camutanga | D | 75 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Zé Vitor | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jamerson | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neris | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Vasconcelos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronald | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Edenilson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gean de Jesus Soares | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Anderson Pato | M | 9 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Diego Tarzia | D | 15 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabrício Santos | F | 15 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renzo López | F | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aitor Cantalapiedra | F | 27 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Gremio vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Gremio to win against Vitoria.
- What score did Fipster predict for Gremio vs Vitoria?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Gremio 3–1 Vitoria.
- What were the win probabilities for Gremio vs Vitoria?
- Fipster's model gave Gremio a 95% chance of winning, Vitoria a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.