Gremio vs Sao Paulo
Match recap
Gremio beat Sao Paulo 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Wallace and Pavón scored for Gremio; Marcos Antônio replied for Sao Paulo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.62 for Gremio versus 1.33 for Sao Paulo. Gremio sit 18th in the Serie A table while Sao Paulo are 9th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-0 Gremio win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
This upcoming fixture between Gremio and Sao Paulo promises a tactical battle with Gremio expected to leverage their home advantage and attacking prowess to secure a win.
Match factors
Gremio's attacking midfield creativity vs Sao Paulo's defense
Cristian Pavón's playmaking and assist record provide Gremio a creative edge against Sao Paulo's defense.
Carlos Vinícius' superior scoring form at home
Vinícius has 10 goals this season with strong home scoring, boosting Gremio's chances to score multiple goals.
Jonathan Calleri's recent scoring surge
Calleri scored 3 goals in last 5 matches, indicating good form despite Sao Paulo's away struggles.
Wendell's assist threat from defense for Sao Paulo
Wendell's 3 assists and crossing ability add an attacking dimension from defense for Sao Paulo.
Full squad availability enhances Gremio's attacking options
No confirmed injuries for Gremio means key attackers and playmakers are available to execute the predicted 2-0 win.
The context
Both teams have had contrasting league fortunes this season. Gremio sit 18th with 31 points from 30 games, while Sao Paulo are comfortably placed 9th with 39 points. Historically, their head-to-head record is fairly balanced with Gremio winning 8 of 20 encounters, Sao Paulo 6, and 6 draws.
Key insights
Cristian Pavón
Gremio
Pavón's 4 assists and creative playmaking give Gremio a tactical edge against Sao Paulo's defence.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 27 appearances, 0.15 assists/game
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Vinícius' 10 goals this season, especially his strong home scoring, boost Gremio's chances to score multiple goals.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 29 appearances, 0.34 goals/game
Jonathan Calleri
Sao Paulo
Calleri's recent form with 3 goals in last 5 matches shows his scoring threat despite Sao Paulo's away struggles.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 25 appearances, 0.4 goals/game
Wendell
Sao Paulo
Wendell's 3 assists and crossing ability add an attacking dimension from defence for Sao Paulo.
Serie A 26/273 assists in 20 appearances, 0.15 assists/game
Analysis
Gremio's attacking midfield creativity, led by Cristian Pavón with 4 assists, gives them a clear edge in breaking down Sao Paulo's defence. Carlos Vinícius, Gremio's top scorer with 10 goals, has been particularly effective at home, making him a key threat. Sao Paulo's Jonathan Calleri has been in decent form with 3 goals in his last 5 games, but the visitors' overall goal difference advantage hasn't translated into consistent away success. Defensive contributions from Sao Paulo's Wendell, who has 3 assists, add some attacking threat from the back, but Gremio's solid defensive setup and recent form suggest they will keep a clean sheet.
Key facts
- 1.Gremio are 18th in the league with 31 points from 30 games (W7 D10 L13).
- 2.Sao Paulo are 9th with 39 points from 30 games (W11 D6 L13).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head matches, Gremio have won 8, Sao Paulo 6, with 6 draws.
- 4.Gremio's Carlos Vinícius has scored 10 goals this season, showing strong home form.
- 5.Cristian Pavón leads Gremio with 4 assists, providing key creativity.
- 6.Sao Paulo's Jonathan Calleri has 10 goals, including 3 in the last 5 games.
- 7.Wendell contributes 3 assists from defence for Sao Paulo, adding attacking threat.
- 8.The predicted total cards for the match is 4, indicating moderate discipline.
Prediction
We expect Gremio to take an early lead, reflected in the predicted 1-0 halftime score, and then extend their advantage to a 2-0 victory by full time. The match is likely to feature moderate discipline with around four cards shown, but Gremio's home form and attacking options should see them comfortably through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Gremio
Away — Sao Paulo
The verdict
In summary, Gremio's combination of home advantage, attacking creativity, and defensive solidity points to a confident 2-0 win over Sao Paulo. The visitors will need to improve their away performances to challenge this prediction.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 10:10 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Marcos Antônio
Assist: Luciano
Villasanti
Yellow Card
Jovane Cabral
Wallace
Assist: Carlos Vinícius
Nardoni
Danielzinho
Ferreira
Luciano
Yellow Card
Calleri
Carlos Vinícius
Diego Caito
Yellow Card
Pavón
Villasanti
Marlon
Yellow Card
Silva
Yellow Card
Kannemann
Yellow Card
Arboleda
Yellow Card
Maia
Wendell
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 8 |  Santos | 31 | 12 | 9 | 10 | +2 | 45 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Gremio
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 5J. NardoniM
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 7C. PavónM
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 23MarlonD
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 77Jovane CabralM
- 82WallaceD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 4W. KannemannD
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 30Matheus NascimentoF
- 33L. PérezM
- 37Gabriel MecF
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Sao Paulo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5R. ArboledaD
- 8Marcos AntônioM
- 9J. CalleriF
- 10LucianoM
- 11FerreiraM
- 18WendellD
- 19Lucas RamonD
- 23RafaelG
- 29Pablo MaiaM
- 54Osorio LuisD
- 94DanielzinhoM
Substitutes
- 12IagoD
- 16D. BobadillaM
- 17André SilvaF
- 20Aurélio ButaD
- 22Domingos DuarteD
- 27Victor SáF
- 28NewtonM
- 31Carlos CoronelG
- 34P. dos SantosF
- 35SabinoD
- 43G. SantanaM
- 80CaulyM
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cristian Pavón | M | 91 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 6/10 |
| Wallace | D | 95 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 78 | 7.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Mathias Villasanti(C) | M | 91 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Weverton | G | 95 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Caito | D | 95 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Jovane Cabral | M | 45 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Juan Nardoni | M | 54 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Marlon | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gabriel Mec | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Leonel Pérez | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Nascimento | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Enamorado | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walter Kannemann | D | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francis Amuzu | F | 50 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Braithwaite | F | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | 41 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Sao Paulo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Marcos Antônio | M | 95 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Ferreirinha | M | 71 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Luciano | M | 95 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Rafael | G | 95 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Ramon | D | 95 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Danielzinho | M | 70 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Wendell | D | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Robert Arboleda | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Jonathan Calleri(C) | F | 77 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Pablo Maia | M | 89 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Luis Osorio | D | 95 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tetê | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Newton | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Santana | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Sá | F | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aurélio Buta | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sabino | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Iago Borduchi | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Domingos Duarte | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Coronel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Silva | F | 18 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cauly | M | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Damián Bobadilla | M | 25 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Gremio vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Gremio to win against Sao Paulo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Gremio vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Gremio 2–0 Sao Paulo.
- What were the win probabilities for Gremio vs Sao Paulo?
- Fipster's model gave Gremio a 88% chance of winning, Sao Paulo a 6% chance, and a 6% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 88% confidence — a high-confidence call.