Gremio vs RB Bragantino
Match recap
Gremio and RB Bragantino drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Carlos Vinícius scored for Gremio; Rodriguinho replied for RB Bragantino. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.56 for Gremio versus 1.66 for RB Bragantino. Gremio sit 18th in the Serie A table while RB Bragantino are 10th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-0 Gremio win
Actual
1–1
Outcome probability
Gremio and RB Bragantino face off in the fifth round of the regular season, with both sides eager to climb the league table. Gremio, currently lower in the standings, will look to capitalise on their home form and attacking prowess to get the better of a mid-table Bragantino side.
Match factors
Gremio's attacking focus on Carlos Vinícius
Vinícius leads Gremio's scoring with 10 goals and is the main striker in a 4-1-4-1, likely to be focal point against RB Bragantino's defense.
Gustavo Martins' unusual goal threat from defense
Martins has 3 goals this season, well above average for defenders, adding an extra scoring dimension for Gremio.
Cristian Pavón's creative influence
Pavón tops Gremio's assists with 4 and is a key creative outlet, enhancing scoring chances especially at home.
Juninho Capixaba doubtful for RB Bragantino
Doubtful defender Juninho Capixaba's availability uncertain, potentially weakening Bragantino's defensive stability.
Lucas Barbosa's midfield scoring threat
Barbosa has 5 goals from midfield, providing RB Bragantino with an additional attacking option beyond forwards.
The context
This fixture sees Gremio, sitting 18th with 30 points from 29 games, take on RB Bragantino, who are 10th with 37 points from the same number of matches. Historically, Bragantino have had the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, but recent form and home advantage could tilt the scales.
Key insights
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Vinícius leads Gremio's scoring with 10 goals and is the main striker in a 4-1-4-1, likely to be focal point against RB Bragantino's defence.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 28 appearances, 0.36 goals/game
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
Martins has 3 goals this season, well above average for defenders, adding an extra scoring dimension for Gremio.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 21 appearances, 0.14 goals/game
Cristian Pavón
Gremio
Pavón tops Gremio's assists with 4 and is a key creative outlet, enhancing scoring chances especially at home.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 26 appearances, 0.15 assists/game
- L
Lucas Barbosa
RB Bragantino
Barbosa has 5 goals from midfield, providing RB Bragantino with an additional attacking option beyond forwards.
Serie A 26/275 goals this season
- J
Juninho Capixaba
RB Bragantino
Juninho Capixaba is doubtful for this match, potentially weakening Bragantino's defensive stability.
Serie A 26/2711 yellow cards in 25 games
Analysis
Gremio's attacking focus centres on Carlos Vinícius, their top scorer with 10 goals this season, making him a constant threat in front of goal. Defender Gustavo Martins adds an unusual goal threat from the back with 3 goals, enhancing Gremio's scoring options. Cristian Pavón's creativity, leading the team with 4 assists, will be key in unlocking Bragantino's defence. On the other side, RB Bragantino's Lucas Barbosa offers a midfield scoring threat with 5 goals, but the doubtful status of defender Juninho Capixaba may weaken their defensive stability. Gremio's goalkeeper Weverton has been a defensive stalwart, contributing to their solidity at home.
Key facts
- 1.Gremio are 18th in the league with 30 points from 29 games.
- 2.RB Bragantino sit 10th with 37 points from 29 games.
- 3.Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 4.Gustavo Martins has scored 3 goals from defence for Gremio.
- 5.Cristian Pavón leads Gremio with 4 assists this season.
- 6.Lucas Barbosa has 5 goals from midfield for RB Bragantino.
- 7.Juninho Capixaba is doubtful for RB Bragantino, potentially weakening their defence.
- 8.Gremio have won 2 of 11 head-to-head meetings, with Bragantino winning 5 and 4 draws.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Gremio with a 2-0 scoreline. While the confidence in the exact score is low, the overall probability strongly supports Gremio securing the victory by leveraging their attacking strengths and home advantage.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Gremio
Away — RB Bragantino
The verdict
Expect Gremio to edge this encounter with a solid 2-0 win, thanks to their key players stepping up and a defence that can keep Bragantino at bay. Bragantino will need to overcome defensive doubts and find a way to break down a determined home side.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 18:37 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Carlos Vinícius
Assist: Enamorado
Henry Mosquera
Yellow Card
Goal cancelled
Lucas Barbosa
Yellow Card
Gabriel
Enamorado
Yellow Card
Monsalve
Mec
Gustavinho
Herrera
Rodriguinho
Assist: Juninho Capixaba
Goal confirmed
Rodriguinho
Yellow Card
Enamorado
Marlon
Yellow Card
Hurtado
Sasha
Nardoni
Juninho Capixaba
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 9 |  Sao Paulo | 32 | 12 | 7 | 13 | +1 | 43 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Gremio
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 5J. NardoniM
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 7C. PavónD
- 11M. MonsalveM
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 23MarlonD
- 37Gabriel MecM
- 44VieryD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 99J. EnamoradoM
Substitutes
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 4W. KannemannD
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 24Thiago BeltrameG
- 33L. PérezM
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 39TiagoM
- 47RogerM
- 65Riquelme FreitasM
- 77André HenriqueF
RB Bragantino
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1CleitonG
- 6GabrielM
- 8Eduardo SashaF
- 16Gustavo MarquesD
- 21Lucas BarbosaM
- 22GustavinhoM
- 29Juninho CapixabaD
- 30Henry MosqueraM
- 32J. HerreraF
- 34J. HurtadoD
Substitutes
- 3Eduardo SantosD
- 9I. PittaF
- 15I. SosaM
- 17ViniciusF
- 18Tiago VolpiG
- 20RodriguinhoM
- 27Davi GomesM
- 28Yuri LelesM
- 35Matheus FernandesM
- 51Cauê Nascimento SantosD
- 52Ryan TavaresM
- 57MarcelinhoM
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weverton | G | 90 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristian Pavón | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| Marlon(C) | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 4 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Viery | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Miguel Monsalve | M | 60 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Juan Nardoni | M | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| Gabriel Mec | M | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/5 |
| José Enamorado | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 4 | 1 | 1 | 2/6 |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Leonel Pérez | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Beltrame | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walter Kannemann | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabián Balbuena | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Freitas | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Henrique | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiaguinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roger | M | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Dodi | M | 30 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | 30 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
RB Bragantino
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Cleiton | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Henrique | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Gustavo Marques | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Juninho Capixaba | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| José Andrés Hurtado | D | 79 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Henry Mosquera | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 7/9 |
| Gabriel Girotto | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Lucas Barbosa | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| José Herrera | F | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Neves | M | 63 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Eduardo Sasha(C) | F | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ryan Augusto Tavares da Silva | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yuri Leles | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelinho Braz | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cauê Nascimento Santos | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Davi Gomes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vinicinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiago Volpi | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodriguinho | M | 27 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Ignacio Sosa | M | 8 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Eduardo Santos | D | 11 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Fernandes | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Isidro Pitta | F | 27 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Gremio to win against RB Bragantino.
- What score did Fipster predict for Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Gremio 2–0 RB Bragantino.
- What were the win probabilities for Gremio vs RB Bragantino?
- Fipster's model gave Gremio a 35% chance of winning, RB Bragantino a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.