Gremio vs Internacional
Match recap
Gremio and Internacional drew 1–1 in their Serie A fixture. Wallace scored for Gremio; Vitinho replied for Internacional. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.45 for Gremio versus 0.86 for Internacional. Gremio sit 18th in the Serie A table while Internacional are 16th.
Outcome probability
The upcoming fixture between Gremio and Internacional promises a keenly fought contest as both sides battle near the relegation zone. With Gremio slightly ahead in the standings, this match could be pivotal for their survival hopes.
Match factors
Gremio's attacking focal point in Carlos Vinícius
Carlos Vinícius leads Gremio's scoring with 10 goals, making him the primary threat against Internacional's defense
Gustavo Martins' goal threat from defense
Gustavo Martins has 3 goals this season, well above average for defenders, adding an extra scoring dimension
Internacional's Johan Carbonero in good recent form
Carbonero has scored 1 goal in last 5 matches and provides key assists, boosting Internacional's attack
Cristian Pavón's creative influence for Gremio
Pavón leads assists for Gremio with 4, providing quality service from wide and set-piece positions
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from missing key players
The context
Both teams find themselves precariously placed in the league standings, with Gremio sitting 17th on 29 points and Internacional just below in 18th with 28 points. Their head-to-head history is competitive, with Internacional holding a slight edge in wins, but recent form and home advantage could tip the scales.
Key insights
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Leads Gremio's scoring with 10 goals, making him the primary threat against Internacional's defence.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 27 appearances, 0.37 goals/game
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
Has 3 goals this season, well above average for defenders, adding an extra scoring dimension.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 21 appearances, 0.14 goals/game
Cristian Pavón
Gremio
Top assister for Gremio with 4 assists, providing quality service from wide and set-piece positions.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 25 appearances, 0.16 assists/game
- J
Johan Carbonero
Internacional
In good recent form with 7 goals this season, boosting Internacional's attacking threat.
Serie A 26/277 goals in current season
Analysis
Gremio's attacking threat is spearheaded by Carlos Vinícius, who has netted 10 goals this season and is a constant menace to defenses. Complementing him is Gustavo Martins, a defender with an impressive goal tally for his position, adding an extra dimension to Gremio's attack. Meanwhile, Internacional will rely on Johan Carbonero's recent good form to challenge the hosts. The predicted halftime score of 1-0 suggests Gremio will start strongly, aiming to maintain and extend their lead in the second half.
Key facts
- 1.Gremio currently sit 17th in the league with 29 points from 28 games.
- 2.Internacional are just below in 18th place with 28 points from 28 games.
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Internacional have 9 wins, Gremio 5, with 6 draws.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 2.5 goals per game, indicating balanced scoring.
- 5.Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 6.Gustavo Martins has scored 3 goals from defense, adding an attacking threat.
- 7.Cristian Pavón leads Gremio with 4 assists, key in creating chances.
Prediction
We anticipate Gremio to take the win with a 2-1 final scoreline. The home side is expected to open the scoring before Internacional respond, but Gremio's resilience and attacking prowess should see them through to victory in this crucial league stage match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Gremio
Away — Internacional
No standout top scorers flagged for Internacional
The verdict
This fixture is set to be a tight affair with both teams desperate for points. However, Gremio's home advantage and key players' form make them the favourites to claim all three points in a 2-1 win.
Prediction generated 8 Oct 2026, 00:31 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Alan Patrick
Yellow Card
Villagra
Yellow Card
Villasanti
Yellow Card
Vitinho
Assist: Alerrandro
Alan Patrick
Henrique
Yellow Card
Alerrandro
Diego Caito
Krovinović
Amuzu
Yellow Card
Maia
Wallace
Aguirre
Bernabéi
Barbosa
Amuzu
Marlon
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 32 | 9 | 10 | 13 | -8 | 37 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Gremio
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 4W. KannemannD
- 7C. PavónF
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 23MarlonD
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 82WallaceD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 5J. NardoniM
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 11TetêF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 18João PedroD
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Internacional
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 5R. VillagraM
- 9AlerrandroM
- 10Alan PatrickF
- 12AnthoniG
- 15Bruno GomesD
- 18JuninhoD
- 25G. MercadoD
- 26A. BernabéiM
- 28VitinhoM
- 29Thiago MaiaM
- 35B. AguirreM
Substitutes
- 4F. TorresD
- 6Matheus BahiaD
- 7J. CarboneroF
- 8Bruno HenriqueM
- 16RonaldoM
- 17N. EliassonM
- 23Matheus CunhaG
- 27PaulinhoM
- 30CalebeM
- 41Victor GabrielD
- 44Victor JoaoF
- 49J. BezerraF
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Wallace | D | 90 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| W. Kannemann | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marlon | D | 87 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/3 |
| M. Villasanti | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Weverton | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Enamorado | F | 28 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| F. Krovinović | M | 62 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/3 |
| M. Braithwaite | F | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Tetê | F | 4 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 4 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Caito | D | 62 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Danilo Barbosa | M | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Caio Paulista | D | 3 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Pavón | F | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| F. Amuzu | F | 86 | 5.9 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Marcos Rocha | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Nardoni | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Noriega | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Balbuena | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Internacional
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Vitinho | M | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 5 | 2 | — | — |
| Juninho | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Bruno Gomes | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| J. Carbonero | F | 30 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| A. Bernabéi | M | 85 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Alerrandro | M | 60 | 6.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| G. Mercado | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matheus Bahia | D | 5 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| F. Torres | D | 5 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| R. Villagra | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| B. Aguirre | M | 85 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Alan Patrick | F | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Paulinho | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Maia | M | 69 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Bruno Henrique | M | 44 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Anthoni | G | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bezerra | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Cunha | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Gabriel | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Calebe | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Eliasson | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ronaldo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Joao | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Gremio vs Internacional?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Gremio to win against Internacional.
- What score did Fipster predict for Gremio vs Internacional?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Gremio 2–1 Internacional.
- What were the win probabilities for Gremio vs Internacional?
- Fipster's model gave Gremio a 85% chance of winning, Internacional a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.