Gremio vs Cruzeiro
Cruzeiro storms past Gremio in six-goal thriller
Kaio Jorge's hat-trick powers Cruzeiro to a 4-2 victory away from home.
Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction favouring a Gremio win, Cruzeiro turned the tables with a stunning 4-2 triumph. Carlos Vinícius opened the scoring for Gremio with a penalty, but Kaio Jorge's first-half equaliser sparked a remarkable response. Jorge then completed his hat-trick with two more goals after the break, supported by João Marcelo's late strike, sealing a memorable away win for Cruzeiro. This result was a clear upset against the expected home victory.
Outcome probability
This fixture between Gremio and Cruzeiro promises a keenly contested battle as both sides look to improve their standings in the league. With Gremio aiming to climb out of the lower reaches and Cruzeiro pushing to maintain their upper-table position, expect a match full of tactical intrigue and key individual battles.
Match factors
Carlos Vinícius leads Gremio's scoring
Carlos Vinícius has scored 10 goals this season, well above league average for attackers, making him the primary scoring threat
Matheus Pereira's strong recent form
Matheus Pereira scored 4 goals in last 5 matches and has 5 assists this season, indicating high impact in attack
Cristian Pavón's creative influence
Pavón's 4 assists and set-piece role provide Gremio with key creative advantage on home ground
Gustavo Martins' set-piece threat
Defender Gustavo Martins' 3 goals this season highlight his aerial threat on set pieces, a tactical asset
Cruzeiro's balanced attacking threats
Matheus Pereira and Kaio Jorge both have 8+ goals this season, providing multiple scoring options for Cruzeiro
The context
The two teams have met 20 times previously, with Cruzeiro holding a slight edge in wins. Currently, Cruzeiro sit comfortably in 6th place with 48 points, while Gremio find themselves down in 18th with 31 points. This contrast in league form sets the stage for an intriguing contest, with Gremio eager to upset the form book.
Key insights
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Top scorer with 10 goals, making him the primary scoring threat for Gremio this season.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 29 appearances, 0.34 goals/game
Matheus Pereira
Cruzeiro
In strong recent form with 4 goals in last 5 matches and 5 assists this season, key to Cruzeiro's attack.
Serie A 26/279 goals and 5 assists in 27 appearances
Cristian Pavón
Gremio
Creative winger with 4 assists and set-piece duties, providing key chances for Gremio at home.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 27 appearances
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
Defender with 3 goals this season, a notable threat on set pieces for Gremio.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 20 appearances
Analysis
Cruzeiro boast a superior goal difference, reflecting their stronger offensive and defensive performances this season. However, Gremio's home advantage and key players like Carlos Vinícius, who leads their scoring charts with 10 goals, provide them with a potent attacking threat. Cruzeiro's Matheus Pereira, in fine recent form with 4 goals in his last 5 games, will be crucial to their hopes. The match is expected to be competitive, with both sides likely to find the net in the first half before Gremio clinch the win in the second.
Key facts
- 1.Gremio have won 6 of 20 meetings against Cruzeiro, who have 8 wins, with 6 draws.
- 2.Cruzeiro are 6th in the league with 48 points from 29 games.
- 3.Gremio are 18th with 31 points from 30 games.
- 4.Cruzeiro have a +12 goal difference advantage over Gremio this season.
- 5.Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 6.Matheus Pereira leads Cruzeiro with 9 goals and 5 assists.
- 7.Cristian Pavón provides creativity for Gremio with 4 assists and set-piece duties.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
We anticipate a 1-1 scoreline at halftime, reflecting a balanced first half. Ultimately, Gremio are predicted to edge out Cruzeiro with a 2-1 victory. The match should feature around four cards, indicating a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Gremio
Away — Cruzeiro
The verdict
In summary, while Cruzeiro enter the match with better league form and goal difference, Gremio's home performance and key attacking players give them the edge. Expect a closely fought game with Gremio narrowly coming out on top.
Prediction generated 15 Oct 2026, 06:16 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Carlos Vinícius
Penalty
Kaio Jorge
Assist: Matheus Pereira
Barbosa
Pavón
Kaio Jorge
Kaio Jorge
Assist: William
Krovinović
Zé Lucas
João Marcelo
Yellow Card
Matheus Pereira
Yellow Card
Kannemann
Red Card
Kannemann
Yellow Card
Arroyo
Yellow Card
Arroyo
João Marcelo
Assist: Gerson
Gerson
João Marcelo
Kaio Jorge
Pavón
Amuzu
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Gremio
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 4W. KannemannD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 7C. PavónM
- 9F. AmuzuM
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 15Danilo BarbosaM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 23MarlonD
- 27Diego CaitoD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 11TetêF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 18João PedroD
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 54Pedro GabrielD
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Cruzeiro
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 5Zé LucasM
- 8GersonM
- 10Matheus PereiraM
- 12WilliamD
- 19Kaio JorgeF
- 25L. VillalbaD
- 29L. RomeroM
- 34JonathanD
- 43João MarceloD
- 81Otávio Eleodoro Rezende CostaG
- 99K. ArroyoM
Substitutes
- 1CássioG
- 2Kauã MoraesD
- 6M. ViñaD
- 7Matheus HenriqueM
- 9Bruno RodriguesF
- 11MarquinhosF
- 15Fabrício BrunoD
- 16Lucas SilvaM
- 20Wesley GassovaF
- 23FágnerD
- 27G. RojasD
- 97L. RodríguezF
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Pavón | M | 90 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 2 | 1/2 |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 90 | 6.8 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Villasanti | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| M. Braithwaite | F | 24 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| F. Amuzu | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| F. Krovinović | M | 66 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Marlon | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Diego Caito | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| E. Noriega | M | 54 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo Barbosa | M | 36 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weverton | G | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| W. Kannemann | D | 73 | 4.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Enamorado | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Balbuena | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Cruzeiro
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kaio Jorge | F | 92 | 9.3 | 3 | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1/1 |
| João Marcelo | D | 92 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 90 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/3 |
| Gerson | M | 92 | 7.1 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Otávio Eleodoro Rezende Costa | G | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wesley Gassova | F | 11 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Romero | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Jonathan | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| William | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| K. Arroyo | M | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | 1 | — |
| L. Villalba | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Zé Lucas | M | 66 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Matheus Henrique | M | 24 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Rodrigues | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Fabrício Bruno | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Silva | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cássio | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Viña | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Rodríguez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marquinhos | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fágner | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauã Moraes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Rojas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Gremio to win against Cruzeiro.
- What score did Fipster predict for Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Gremio 2–1 Cruzeiro.
- What were the win probabilities for Gremio vs Cruzeiro?
- Fipster's model gave Gremio a 85% chance of winning, Cruzeiro a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.