Gremio vs Botafogo
Match recap
Gremio beat Botafogo 5–3 in their Serie A fixture. Carlos Vinícius, Carlos Vinícius, Carlos Vinícius, Tetê, and Edenílson scored for Gremio; Cabral, Santos, and Santos replied for Botafogo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 3.17 for Gremio versus 1.13 for Botafogo. Gremio sit 18th in the Serie A table while Botafogo are 11th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-0 Gremio win
Actual
5–3
Outcome probability
Gremio and Botafogo face off in the second round of the regular season, with both sides eager to make an early impact. Gremio's attacking prowess and defensive stability set the stage for a compelling encounter.
Match factors
Gremio's attacking focal point in Carlos Vinícius
Carlos Vinícius leads Gremio with 10 goals and is the main striker in a 4-2-3-1, likely to capitalize on Botafogo's defensive vulnerabilities
Danilo Santos' scoring form for Botafogo
Danilo Santos has 9 goals this season with strong recent scoring, providing Botafogo's main offensive threat
Álvaro Montoro's assist contributions
Montoro has 5 assists this season and recent form shows he is key in creating chances for Botafogo
Gremio missing key defenders Marlon and Diego Caito
Absence of Marlon and Diego Caito weakens Gremio's defense, increasing reliance on offensive players to secure win
Weverton's goalkeeping stability for Gremio
Weverton's high ratings and clean sheets provide Gremio defensive stability, supporting predicted clean sheet
The context
This fixture sees Gremio ranked 18th with 30 points from 29 games, while Botafogo sit slightly higher in 13th place with 35 points. Historically, Gremio have edged the head-to-head record, winning 11 of 20 meetings, with an average of 3.1 goals per match between them.
Key insights
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Carlos Vinícius leads Gremio with 10 goals this season and is the main striker in a 4-2-3-1, likely to capitalise on Botafogo's defensive vulnerabilities.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 28 appearances, strong home scoring rate
Danilo Santos
Botafogo
Danilo Santos has 9 goals this season with strong recent scoring form, providing Botafogo's main offensive threat.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 22 appearances, 2 goals in this fixture
Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
Montoro has 5 assists this season and recent form shows he is key in creating chances for Botafogo.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 27 appearances
- W
Weverton
Gremio
Weverton's consistently high ratings and clean sheets provide Gremio defensive stability, supporting the predicted clean sheet.
Serie A 26/27High ratings and clean sheets this season
Analysis
Gremio's attacking focal point, Carlos Vinícius, has been in fine form with 10 goals this season, including a notable performance in this fixture. Botafogo's main threat comes from midfielder Danilo Santos, who has netted 9 goals and scored twice in this match. Despite Botafogo's efforts, Gremio's goalkeeper Weverton and defensive unit have provided the stability needed to maintain a clean sheet. The absence of key defenders Marlon and Diego Caito for Gremio places more emphasis on their offensive players to secure the win.
Key facts
- 1.Gremio have won 11 of 20 head-to-head meetings against Botafogo.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 3.1 total goals.
- 3.Gremio are ranked 18th in their league with 30 points from 29 games.
- 4.Botafogo are ranked 13th in their league with 35 points from 29 games.
- 5.Carlos Vinícius scored 3 goals in this fixture for Gremio.
- 6.Danilo Santos scored 2 goals in this fixture for Botafogo.
- 7.The predicted fulltime scoreline is 2-0 in favour of Gremio.
- 8.The halftime score is predicted as 1-0 to Gremio.
Prediction
The prediction favours a home win for Gremio with a 2-0 scoreline. The halftime score of 1-0 aligns with the expected fulltime result, reflecting Gremio's ability to build and maintain a lead. The match is also expected to see around four cards, indicating a competitive but controlled game.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Gremio
Away — Botafogo
The verdict
In summary, Gremio's combination of attacking firepower and defensive resilience should see them comfortably overcome Botafogo. Fans can anticipate a solid performance from Carlos Vinícius and a disciplined defensive display to keep Botafogo at bay.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:26 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Barboza
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Cabral
Assist: Barboza
Rodríguez
Carlos Vinícius
Santos
Assist: Montoro
Monsalve
Pavón
Carlos Vinícius
Assist: Amuzu
Ponte
Yellow Card
Carlos Vinícius
Penalty
Tetê
Assist: Amuzu
Montoro
Ponte
Tetê
Carlos Vinícius
Allan
Yellow Card
Edenílson
Unknown
Allan
Santos
Assist: Barboza
Arthur
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Gremio
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 7C. PavónM
- 11M. MonsalveM
- 18João PedroD
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 21TetêM
- 23MarlonD
- 29ArthurM
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 8EdenílsonM
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 44VieryD
- 47RogerM
- 53Gustavo MartinsD
- 77André HenriqueF
- 88WillianM
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Botafogo
3-4-3Starting XI
- 2VitinhoM
- 4M. PonteD
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 10Álvaro MontoroF
- 13Alex TellesM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 20A. BarbozaD
- 22NetoG
- 23S. RodríguezF
- 25AllanM
- 28NewtonD
Substitutes
- 7ArturF
- 11Matheus MartinsF
- 14J. BarreraM
- 15Bartolomeu Jacinto QuissangaD
- 16Nathan FernandesF
- 24Léo LinckG
- 36Gabriel AbdiasD
- 37K. BarriaF
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 48Arthur NovaesM
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 64MarquinhosD
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 68 | 9.9 | 3 | — | 3 | 3 | — | — |
| Tetê | M | 68 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Erick Noriega | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Arthur(C) | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Cristian Pavón | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Fabián Balbuena | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Weverton | G | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Miguel Monsalve | M | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marlon | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Roger | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Viery | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Enamorado | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francis Amuzu | F | 45 | 7.9 | — | 2 | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Edenilson | M | 22 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Willian | M | 46 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| André Henrique | F | 22 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 0/1 |
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Danilo | M | 90 | 8.7 | 2 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0/3 |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 2/3 |
| Álvaro Montoro | F | 61 | 6.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Neto | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Newton | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Allan | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Santiago Rodríguez | F | 19 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Vitinho | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Alexander Barboza | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | 2 | — | — | 3 | — |
| Mateo Ponte | D | 62 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Alex Telles(C) | M | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Kauan Toledo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bastos | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kadu Santos | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Linck | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Novaes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Da Silva Abdias | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kadir Barría | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Artur | F | 63 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Nathan Fernandes | F | 8 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Marquinhos | D | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Martins | F | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Jordan Barrera | M | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Gremio vs Botafogo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Gremio to win against Botafogo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Gremio vs Botafogo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Gremio 2–0 Botafogo.
- What were the win probabilities for Gremio vs Botafogo?
- Fipster's model gave Gremio a 95% chance of winning, Botafogo a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.