Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense
Gremio shut out Atletico Paranaense
Marlon and F. Balbuena secure a solid 2-0 win for Gremio.
Gremio defied expectations with a confident 2-0 victory over Atletico Paranaense in Serie A. Marlon opened the scoring just before half-time, and F. Balbuena doubled the lead early in the second half to seal the win. This result was a surprise as Fipster had predicted a high-scoring away win, but Gremio's defence held firm to claim all three points.
Outcome probability
This fixture pits Gremio against Atletico Paranaense in the 33rd round of the regular season. Both teams have contrasting fortunes this campaign, setting the stage for an intriguing contest.
Match factors
Atletico Paranaense's prolific striker advantage
Kevin Viveros leads with 21 goals, significantly outscoring Gremio's top scorer, providing a clear attacking edge.
Gremio's Carlos Vinícius consistent scoring threat
Carlos Vinícius has 11 goals and is a focal point in attack, likely to challenge Atletico's defense.
Atletico Paranaense's scoring streak away from home
Atletico Paranaense has scored in all last 5 away matches, showing strong offensive form on the road.
C. Pavón's dual threat as defender and creator
Pavón contributes 3 goals and 4 assists, offering both defensive solidity and attacking support.
Gustavo Martins' unusual goal threat from defense
Martins has 3 goals, well above average for defenders, adding an extra scoring dimension for Gremio.
The context
Gremio currently sit 18th in the league with 31 points, struggling to find consistent form. Atletico Paranaense, on the other hand, enjoy a much healthier position in 4th place with 54 points and a positive goal difference, reflecting their stronger campaign so far.
Key insights
- K
Kevin Viveros Rodallega
Atletico Paranaense
Top scorer in the league with 21 goals, including 5 in the last 5 away games, providing a clear attacking edge.
Serie A 26/2721 goals in 30 apps, 0.7 avg per game
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Leading scorer for Gremio with 11 goals, a consistent attacking threat likely to challenge Atletico's defence.
Serie A 26/2711 goals in 30 apps, 0.37 avg per game
C. Pavón
Atletico Paranaense
Contributes both defensively and offensively with 3 goals and 4 assists, offering a dual threat.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 28 apps, 0.14 avg per game
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
Unusually high scoring defender with 3 goals, adding an extra dimension to Gremio's attack.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 23 apps, 0.13 avg per game
Analysis
Atletico Paranaense's attacking threat is spearheaded by Kevin Viveros Rodallega, who boasts 21 goals this season and excellent away form, scoring in each of the last five away matches. Gremio's Carlos Vinícius, with 11 goals, remains a consistent threat but faces a tough defensive challenge. Defender C. Pavón offers Atletico Paranaense both defensive solidity and creative support with 4 assists and 3 goals, while Gremio's Gustavo Martins adds an unusual goal threat from defence. The aggregate probabilities favour an away win, with a predicted 3-2 scoreline reflecting a closely fought but ultimately successful visit for Atletico Paranaense.
Key facts
- 1.Gremio have won 11 of 20 head-to-head matches against Atletico Paranaense.
- 2.Atletico Paranaense rank 4th with 54 points; Gremio are 18th with 31 points.
- 3.Atletico Paranaense have a +12 goal difference; Gremio have -10 this season.
- 4.Kevin Viveros leads the league with 21 goals, including 5 in the last 5 away games.
- 5.Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's top scorer with 11 goals this season.
- 6.Atletico Paranaense have scored in all their last 5 away matches.
- 7.Defender C. Pavón has contributed 3 goals and 4 assists this season.
Prediction
We expect Atletico Paranaense to take an early lead, reflected in the predicted halftime score of 2-1 in their favour. Despite Gremio's efforts to claw back, the visitors should hold on to secure a 3-2 victory by full time, continuing their strong league form.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Gremio
Away — Atletico Paranaense
The verdict
This match promises goals and excitement, with Atletico Paranaense's attacking edge likely to prove decisive. Gremio will fight hard, but the visitors' superior form and firepower should see them through to a narrow win.
Prediction generated 27 Oct 2026, 00:29 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Portilla
Yellow Card
Enamorado
Yellow Card
Derik
Yellow Card
Marlon
Derik
Portilla
Balbuena
Leozinho
Carlos Vinícius
Yellow Card
Enamorado
Carlos Vinícius
Balbuena
Noriega
Yellow Card
Amuzu
João Cruz
Villasanti
Zapelli
Yellow Card
Mendoza
Weverton
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 34 | 23 | 7 | 4 | +42 | 76 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 33 | 15 | 9 | 9 | +10 | 54 |
| 5 |  Atletico Paranaense | 34 | 15 | 9 | 10 | +8 | 54 |
| 6 |  Bahia | 34 | 14 | 11 | 9 | +5 | 53 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -6 | 37 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 34 | 9 | 10 | 15 | -9 | 37 |
| 19 |  Remo | 34 | 6 | 11 | 17 | -20 | 29 |
Match Statistics
Gremio
3-4-3Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 6Gustavo MartinsD
- 8E. NoriegaM
- 9F. AmuzuF
- 18João PedroM
- 20M. VillasantiM
- 23MarlonM
- 82WallaceD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Substitutes
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 10F. KrovinovićM
- 11TetêF
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 22M. BraithwaiteF
- 30Matheus NascimentoF
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 48B. G. Joao PedroM
- 50Bernardo ZorteaM
- 54Pedro GabrielD
Atletico Paranaense
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1MycaelG
- 4Arthur DiasD
- 6DerikM
- 7S. MendozaM
- 8João CruzF
- 9K. ViverosF
- 14Luiz GustavoM
- 21LeozinhoF
- 27J. PortillaM
- 33J. AguirreD
- 37L. EsquivelD
Substitutes
- 2GilbertoD
- 5FelipinhoD
- 10B. ZapelliM
- 18K. VargasF
- 19Jorge Luis Rivaldo PintoF
- 23SantosG
- 25DantasD
- 29G. BenavídezD
- 47ChiquetiM
- 53DuduM
- 55Bruno BaldiniD
- 70RenanF
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Weverton | G | 84 | 8.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabián Balbuena | D | 68 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Marlon | M | 84 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 5 | 1/2 |
| Erick Noriega | M | 84 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Mathias Villasanti(C) | M | 84 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 84 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallace | D | 84 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| José Enamorado | F | 67 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 67 | 6.6 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | — |
| João Pedro | M | 84 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Francis Amuzu | F | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zortéa | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Borne | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Gabriel | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Filip Krovinović | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | 5 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Nascimento | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dodi | M | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tetê | F | 17 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Braithwaite | F | 17 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Atletico Paranaense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luiz Gustavo(C) | M | 84 | 7.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| Leozinho | F | 62 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Lucas Esquivel | D | 84 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/3 |
| Arthur Dias | D | 84 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mycael | G | 84 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Steven Mendoza | M | 84 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Juan Felipe Aguirre | D | 84 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Kevin Viveros | F | 84 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Leonardo Derik | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Juan Portilla | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| João Cruz | F | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 0/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Gilberto Junior | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chiqueti | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Baldini | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dudu | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dantas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jorge Rivaldo | F | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan Peixoto Nepomuceno | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipinho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santos | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Zapelli | M | 39 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Kerwin Vargas | F | 22 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gastón Benavídez | D | 39 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Atletico Paranaense to win against Gremio.
- What score did Fipster predict for Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Gremio 2–3 Atletico Paranaense.
- What were the win probabilities for Gremio vs Atletico Paranaense?
- Fipster's model gave Gremio a 17% chance of winning, Atletico Paranaense a 66% chance, and a 17% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 66% confidence — a high-confidence call.