Gremio vs Atletico-MG
Match recap
Gremio beat Atletico-MG 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Noriega and Marlon scored for Gremio; Victor Hugo replied for Atletico-MG. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 0.92 for Gremio versus 0.41 for Atletico-MG. Gremio sit 18th in the Serie A table while Atletico-MG are 6th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
2-1 Gremio win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
This fixture sees Gremio and Atletico-MG face off in the fourth round of the regular season. Both teams have shown competitive form, but Gremio's recent home performances and attacking threats give them the edge in this encounter.
Match factors
Atletico-MG missing key attacker Tomás Cuello
Cuello is out due to suspension, reducing Atletico-MG's attacking options and goal threat
Gremio's Carlos Vinícius focal point in attack
Vinícius leads Gremio with 10 goals, likely to be main scoring threat exploiting Atletico-MG's defense
Cristian Pavón's creative influence for Gremio
Pavón tops assists for Gremio with 4, key in creating chances for Vinícius and others
Atletico-MG's Bernard showing strong recent form
Bernard has 2 goals in last 5 games and high match ratings, a creative threat for Atletico-MG
Gustavo Martins' dual threat as defender and scorer
Martins contributes goals and assists from defense, adding unexpected attacking options for Gremio
The context
Gremio have a historical advantage in head-to-head meetings, winning 11 of 20 clashes against Atletico-MG's 6 victories and 3 draws. Currently, Gremio sit 18th in their league with 30 points from 29 games, while Atletico-MG are positioned 7th with 44 points from the same number of matches.
Key insights
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Vinícius is the main attacking threat with 10 goals this season, making him a key player to watch at home.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in 28 appearances, 2171 mins
Cristian Pavón
Gremio
Pavón's creativity is vital, leading the team with 4 assists and providing key chances for Vinícius.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 26 appearances, 1982 mins
Gustavo Martins
Gremio
Martins offers a dual threat from defence with 3 goals and 2 assists, adding unexpected attacking options.
Serie A 26/273 goals and 2 assists in 21 appearances, 1568 mins
- B
Bernard
Atletico-MG
Bernard has been in strong recent form with 2 goals in the last 5 games, providing creativity for Atletico-MG.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 26 appearances, recent high match ratings
Analysis
Gremio's attacking focal point, Carlos Vinícius, leads the team with 10 goals this season and is expected to exploit Atletico-MG's defence effectively. Cristian Pavón's creativity, topping the assists chart for Gremio with 4, will be crucial in setting up chances. Atletico-MG will miss key attacker Tomás Cuello due to suspension, which could blunt their offensive threat. Meanwhile, Atletico-MG's Bernard has been in good form recently, providing a creative spark. The predicted total of four cards suggests a moderately disciplined match.
Key facts
- 1.Gremio have won 11 of 20 head-to-head matches against Atletico-MG.
- 2.Gremio are currently 18th in the league with 30 points from 29 games.
- 3.Atletico-MG sit 7th with 44 points from 29 games.
- 4.Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's top scorer with 10 goals this season.
- 5.Cristian Pavón leads Gremio with 4 assists this season.
- 6.Atletico-MG's Tomás Cuello is suspended and unavailable for this match.
- 7.The predicted total number of cards in the match is four.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a home win for Gremio with a 2-1 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 1-0 in favour of Gremio, consistent with the fulltime prediction. This result aligns with Gremio's stronger recent form in this fixture and their home advantage.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Gremio
Away — Atletico-MG
No standout top scorers flagged for Atletico-MG
The verdict
Expect a competitive match with Gremio narrowly coming out on top thanks to their attacking strengths and home edge. Atletico-MG will pose challenges, but the absence of Cuello and Gremio's key players' form should see the home side claim the three points.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:55 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Nardoni
Yellow Card
Natanael
Red Card
Pavón
Yellow Card
Gustavo Scarpa
Noriega
Assist: Marlon
Mec
Yellow Card
Victor Hugo
Assist: Everson
Marlon
Assist: Noriega
Hulk
Mec
Cuello
Victor Hugo
Pavón
Enamorado
Carlos Vinícius
Yellow Card
Nardoni
Vitor Hugo
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 7 |  Bahia | 31 | 13 | 10 | 8 | +5 | 49 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Gremio
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 5J. NardoniM
- 7C. PavónD
- 9F. AmuzuM
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 23MarlonD
- 37Gabriel MecM
- 44VieryD
- 53Gustavo MartinsD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
- 99J. EnamoradoM
Substitutes
- 2F. BalbuenaD
- 4W. KannemannD
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 17DodiM
- 18João PedroD
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 39TiagoM
- 40Jefinho
- 47RogerM
- 65Riquelme FreitasM
- 77André HenriqueF
Atletico-MG
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2NatanaelD
- 4Ruan TressoldiD
- 7HulkF
- 8MayconM
- 10Gustavo ScarpaM
- 14Vitor HugoD
- 16Renan LodiD
- 21A. FrancoM
- 22EversonG
- 28T. CuelloM
- 30Victor HugoM
Substitutes
- 1Gabriel DelfimG
- 3I. RománD
- 6J. AlonsoD
- 9M. CassierraF
- 11BernardM
- 17Igor GomesM
- 19ReinierM
- 23A. PreciadoD
- 25T. PérezM
- 27A. MindaF
- 39Mamady CisseM
- 92DuduF
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Erick Noriega | M | 98 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 4 | — |
| Marlon(C) | D | 98 | 8.2 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Cristian Pavón | D | 80 | 7.7 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 2/2 |
| José Enamorado | M | 80 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3/5 |
| Viery | D | 98 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Francis Amuzu | M | 98 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Weverton | G | 98 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juan Nardoni | M | 86 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Mec | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 98 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tiaguinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabián Balbuena | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme Freitas | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcos Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Walter Kannemann | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Henrique | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Roger | M | 18 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Dodi | M | 29 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Atletico-MG
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alan Franco | M | 98 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Hugo | M | 80 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Everson | G | 98 | 7.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| Maycon | M | 98 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Ruan | D | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gustavo Scarpa | M | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renan Lodi | D | 98 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/4 |
| Hulk(C) | F | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Tomás Cuello | M | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Vitor Hugo | D | 89 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Natanael | D | 17 | 3.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Iván Román | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Junior Alonso | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ángelo Preciado | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Gomes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bernard | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tomás Pérez | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Delfim | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alan Minda | F | 18 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Mamady Cissé | M | 53 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| Dudu | F | 29 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Mateo Cassierra | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Reinier | M | 30 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/5 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Gremio to win against Atletico-MG.
- What score did Fipster predict for Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Gremio 2–1 Atletico-MG.
- What were the win probabilities for Gremio vs Atletico-MG?
- Fipster's model gave Gremio a 85% chance of winning, Atletico-MG a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.