GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia
Match recap
GIL Vicente beat Casa Pia 2–0 in their Primeira Liga fixture. Pinto Martins and Héctor Hernández scored for GIL Vicente. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.61 for GIL Vicente versus 0.76 for Casa Pia. GIL Vicente sit 7th in the Primeira Liga table while Casa Pia are 16th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
1-0 GIL Vicente win
Actual
2–0
Outcome probability
As the third round of the regular season unfolds, GIL Vicente and Casa Pia face off in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both teams have shown glimpses of promise, but the home side's recent form and attacking edge suggest they hold the upper hand.
Match factors
GIL Vicente's strong defensive passing and tackling
Defenders like M. Elimbi Gilbert excel in passing accuracy (90%) and tackling, aiding build-up and defense.
Héctor Hernández leads scoring threat
Héctor Hernández's 3 goals in 7 games and strong home form give GIL Vicente a clear scoring edge.
Gil Pinto Martins' creative form supports attack
Gil Pinto Martins has 2 assists this season and recent key passes, boosting GIL Vicente's chance to score.
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so no impact from missing players expected.
Casa Pia's defensive struggles likely to be exploited
Casa Pia concedes over 2 goals per game on average, increasing likelihood of GIL Vicente scoring.
The context
GIL Vicente currently enjoy a better league standing and points per game than Casa Pia, reflecting stronger overall form. Historically, GIL Vicente have won nearly half of their head-to-head clashes, scoring more goals on average than their opponents. These factors set the stage for a competitive match with a slight home advantage.
Key insights
Héctor Hernández
GIL Vicente
Leads GIL Vicente scoring with 3 goals, including 2 at home, giving the team a clear attacking edge.
Primeira Liga 26/273 goals in 7 appearances, 2 goals in 4 home games
Gil Pinto Martins
GIL Vicente
Top assister with 2 assists this season, providing key creativity and linking play effectively.
Primeira Liga 26/272 assists in 7 appearances, 0.29 assists/game
- M
M. Elimbi Gilbert
GIL Vicente
Defensive stalwart with 90% passing accuracy and strong tackling, crucial for building play and maintaining control.
Primeira Liga 26/2790% passing accuracy, 1.86 tackles/game, 64.6% duel win rate
Analysis
GIL Vicente's attacking threat is spearheaded by Héctor Hernández, who boasts three goals in seven appearances and a solid home scoring record. Midfielder Gil Pinto Martins adds creativity with two assists this season, enhancing their offensive options. Defensively, GIL Vicente benefit from the reliable passing and tackling of M. Elimbi Gilbert, whose 90% passing accuracy and strong duel success rate help maintain control. Casa Pia, meanwhile, struggle defensively, conceding over two goals per game on average, which GIL Vicente are likely to exploit.
Key facts
- 1.GIL Vicente have a better league standing and points per game than Casa Pia.
- 2.In head-to-head meetings, GIL Vicente have won 4 out of 9 matches.
- 3.GIL Vicente have scored 10 goals in 9 head-to-head matches, averaging more than Casa Pia.
- 4.Héctor Hernández leads GIL Vicente with 3 goals in 7 games, including strong home form.
- 5.Gil Pinto Martins has provided 2 assists this season, supporting GIL Vicente's attack.
- 6.Casa Pia concedes over 2 goals per game on average, indicating defensive struggles.
- 7.M. Elimbi Gilbert boasts 90% passing accuracy and a high duel win rate for GIL Vicente.
Prediction
The most probable outcome is a narrow home win for GIL Vicente, with a 1-0 scoreline the single most likely result. This prediction aligns with the statistical edge in attacking and defensive metrics favouring the home side, suggesting a closely fought match decided by a single goal.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — GIL Vicente
Away — Casa Pia
The verdict
In summary, GIL Vicente's combination of attacking prowess and defensive solidity should be enough to see them through against Casa Pia. Expect a tight game with limited chances, but ultimately a home victory by the slimmest of margins.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 09:46 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pinto Martins
Assist: Héctor Hernández
Pérez
Yellow Card
Héctor Hernández
Penalty
Araújo
Joelson Fernandes
Lausen
Jatta
Pérez
Héctor Hernández
Cáseres
Abdu Conté
Rochinha
Pinto Martins
Elimbi Gilbert
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  FC Porto | 9 | 9 | 0 | 0 | +17 | 27 |
| 6 |  Academico Viseu | 8 | 4 | 2 | 2 | +1 | 14 |
| 7 |  GIL Vicente | 9 | 4 | 2 | 3 | +1 | 14 |
| 8 |  Alverca | 9 | 3 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 11 |
| 15 |  Nacional | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -8 | 7 |
| 16 |  Casa Pia | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -12 | 7 |
| 17 |  Rio Ave | 9 | 2 | 1 | 6 | -13 | 7 |
Match Statistics
GIL Vicente
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4M. Elimbi GilbertD
- 5F. CáseresM
- 10Santi GarcíaM
- 11Joelson FernandesM
- 12A. LausenM
- 20Gil Pinto MartinsM
- 23Héctor HernándezF
- 26WeversonD
- 30LucãoG
- 39Jonathan BuatuD
- 47Ricardo EsgaioD
Substitutes
- 2José SilvaD
- 3EspigaresD
- 6Zé CarlosM
- 7T. TouréF
- 27A. MoreiraF
- 29Carlos EduardoF
- 32M. FernándezM
- 45David MoreiraD
- 77MuriloF
- 86Diogo Ferreira PriosteM
- 94SamuelG
- 99M. KabaF
Casa Pia
4-3-3Starting XI
- 4João GoulartD
- 5Abdu ContéD
- 9Henrique AraújoF
- 10RochinhaF
- 16SilviM
- 18GeraldesD
- 20A. JattaF
- 24S. PérezM
- 31André GomesG
- 43David SousaD
- 80L. OforiM
Substitutes
- 8Gabi PereiraM
- 11Raúl BlancoM
- 19K. PrietoF
- 21A. ZouinF
- 22Daniel AzevedoG
- 27Kaique RochaD
- 59Abdu DafeM
- 75Pedro RosasD
- 90CassianoF
- 95Ivan MandićG
- 98JPM
- 99ClaudioF
GIL Vicente
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Gil Martins | M | 79 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Héctor Hernández | F | 74 | 7.5 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Facundo Cáseres | M | 74 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Weverson | D | 91 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Jonathan Buatu(C) | D | 91 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marvin Elimbi Gilbert | D | 91 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ricardo Esgaio | D | 91 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucão | G | 91 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andreas Lausen | M | 60 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Santi García | M | 91 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3/4 |
| Joelson Fernandes | M | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 3/3 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| David Moreira | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mohamed Kaba | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| José Silva | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Antonio Espigares | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tidjany Touré | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martin Fernández | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Murilo | F | 31 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Zé Carlos | M | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diogo Prioste | M | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Agustín Moreira | F | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Carlos Eduardo | F | 17 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Casa Pia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Rochinha | F | 77 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Selvi Clúa | M | 91 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Geraldes(C) | D | 91 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Sebastián Pérez | M | 70 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| David Sousa | D | 91 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| João Goulart | D | 91 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alassana Jatta | F | 69 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lawrence Ofori | M | 91 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Abdu Conté | D | 77 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| André Gomes | G | 91 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Henrique Araújo | F | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ivan Mandić | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Raúl Blanco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Aymen Zouin | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique Rocha | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| JP | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Prieto | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Azevedo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cassiano | F | 31 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Pedro Rosas | D | 14 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Claudio Mendes | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Gabi Pereira | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Abdu Dafe | M | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted GIL Vicente to win against Casa Pia.
- What score did Fipster predict for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of GIL Vicente 1–0 Casa Pia.
- What were the win probabilities for GIL Vicente vs Casa Pia?
- Fipster's model gave GIL Vicente a 47% chance of winning, Casa Pia a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 47% confidence — a medium-confidence call.