Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano
Getafe and Rayo share spoils in stalemate
Álvaro García and M. Satriano trade blows to settle for a draw.
Rayo Vallecano struck first through Álvaro García's early goal, only for Getafe's M. Satriano to level after the break, resulting in a 1-1 draw. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a 2-0 home win, proving the match to be more evenly contested than anticipated.
Outcome probability
Getafe and Rayo Vallecano, sitting neck and neck in the league standings, face off in what promises to be a closely contested encounter. Both teams have identical points and similar recent form, setting the stage for a tactical battle.
Match factors
Getafe's attacking options limited by injuries
Confirmed outs include key attacker Juanmi and midfielder Christantus Uche, reducing scoring depth
Iván Azón's strong recent scoring form
Azón scored in multiple recent home games with high ratings, boosting Getafe's attack
Rayo Vallecano's reliance on Sergio Camello for goals
Camello leads Rayo's scoring with multiple goals and high match ratings despite team's defensive struggles
Getafe's home scoring streak vs Rayo's defensive frailty
Getafe has scored in all recent home games while Rayo concedes heavily away, favoring home win
The context
Historically, Rayo Vallecano have had the upper hand in their 20 meetings, winning eight times to Getafe's four, with eight draws. Matches between these sides tend to be low-scoring affairs, averaging just 1.6 goals per game. Currently, both teams are mid-table, ranked 12th and 13th respectively, each with eight points from seven games.
Key insights
- I
Iván Azón
Getafe
Azón has been a key attacking threat with multiple goals in recent home games and high match ratings, boosting Getafe's chances.
La Liga 26/27Multiple goals and match ratings of 8.2 and 8.0 in recent fixtures.
- S
Sergio Camello
Rayo Vallecano
Camello is the primary goal threat for Rayo, leading their scoring with multiple goals despite the team's defensive struggles.
La Liga 26/27Multiple goals and high match ratings up to 9.54.
Analysis
Getafe's recent home form and attacking momentum give them the edge here. Iván Azón has been in fine fettle, scoring multiple goals in recent home matches and boasting high match ratings. Meanwhile, Rayo Vallecano rely heavily on Sergio Camello for goals, who despite his efforts, faces a tough defensive challenge. Getafe's injury woes have limited their attacking options, but their home scoring streak and Rayo's defensive vulnerabilities away from home suggest a controlled Getafe victory.
Key facts
- 1.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Rayo Vallecano lead with 8 wins, Getafe have 4, and 8 matches ended in draws.
- 2.Head-to-head matches average 1.6 total goals, with Rayo scoring twice as many as Getafe historically.
- 3.Getafe are ranked 12th in the league with 8 points from 7 games (W2 D2 L3).
- 4.Rayo Vallecano are ranked 13th with identical points and form (W2 D2 L3).
- 5.Getafe have scored in all recent home games, showing strong attacking form.
- 6.Rayo Vallecano concede heavily away from home, indicating defensive frailty.
- 7.Iván Azón is Getafe's top recent scorer with multiple goals and high match ratings.
- 8.Sergio Camello leads Rayo Vallecano's scoring but faces a tough defensive test.
Prediction
The prediction sees Getafe taking a 1-0 lead by halftime and doubling their advantage by full time to win 2-0. The match is expected to feature around four cards, indicating a competitive but disciplined affair. Getafe's ability to score early and maintain control should see them comfortably through.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Getafe
Away — Rayo Vallecano
The verdict
In summary, Getafe's home advantage, combined with their recent attacking form and Rayo Vallecano's defensive struggles on the road, points to a confident 2-0 home win. While Rayo's key players will try to make an impact, the data supports a steady and controlled performance from Getafe.
Prediction generated 10 Oct 2026, 18:30 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Kiko Femenía
Yellow Card
García
Assist: de Frutos
Dakonam
Yellow Card
Dakonam
Red Card
Terrats
Balliu
Yellow Card
Kiko Femenía
Martín
Serrano
Yellow Card
Satriano
Assist: Serrano
Isi Palazón
Balliu
de Frutos
Ciss
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
García
Unknown
López
Ünal
Yellow Card
Gudelj
Yellow Card
Ünal
Camello
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Barcelona | 8 | 8 | 0 | 0 | +27 | 24 |
| 12 |  Espanyol | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | 0 | 8 |
| 13 |  Rayo Vallecano | 7 | 2 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 8 |
| 14 |  Getafe | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -6 | 8 |
| 15 |  Racing Santander | 8 | 2 | 2 | 4 | -10 | 8 |
Match Statistics
Getafe
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2D. DakonamD
- 6Mario MartínM
- 8N. GudeljM
- 10M. SatrianoM
- 11Ramón TerratsF
- 13David SoriaG
- 17Kiko FemeníaM
- 19E. ÜnalF
- 22J. MojicaD
- 26J. ValouD
Substitutes
- 1J. LetáčekG
- 3DavinchiD
- 4S. SazonovD
- 5A. AbqarD
- 9Borja MayoralF
- 15S. BoselliD
- 16Francho SerranoM
- 21Andrés GarcíaD
- 28Alberto RiscoM
- 35Diego FerrerG
Rayo Vallecano
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 6P. CissM
- 7Isi PalazónM
- 8Unai LópezM
- 10Sergio CamelloM
- 15Mujaid SadickD
- 17Adrià PedrosaD
- 18Álvaro GarcíaM
- 19Jorge de FrutosF
- 20I. BalliuD
- 24F. LejeuneD
- 25E. AuderoG
Substitutes
- 1Dani CárdenasG
- 3M. KumbullaD
- 4Pedro DíazM
- 9AlemãoF
- 14G. TsitaishviliF
- 21Fran PérezF
- 22Pelayo FernándezD
- 23Óscar ValentínM
- 33J. VertrouwdD
- 36G. BouareM
- 37Rayane BelidF
Getafe
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Satriano | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 4 | 3 | 2 | 2/4 |
| Mario Martín | M | 46 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| Borja Mayoral | F | 3 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ramón Terrats | F | 32 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Andrés García | D | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| David Soria | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Boselli | D | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Ünal | F | 87 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Francho Serrano | M | 44 | 6.4 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| J. Valou | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| A. Abqar | D | 58 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Mojica | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| N. Gudelj | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Kiko Femenía | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Dakonam | D | 28 | 4.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Davinchi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Letáček | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alberto Risco | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Sazonov | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Diego Ferrer | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Rayo Vallecano
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Álvaro García | M | 80 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Óscar Valentín | M | 31 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| E. Audero | G | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Lejeune | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Unai López | M | 80 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Pedro Díaz | M | 31 | 7.2 | — | — | 5 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Jorge de Frutos | F | 65 | 7.1 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| Mujaid Sadick | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Isi Palazón | M | 59 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| P. Ciss | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| G. Tsitaishvili | F | 25 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| I. Balliu | D | 59 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Adrià Pedrosa | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Alemão | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Fran Pérez | F | 10 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sergio Camello | M | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 1/5 |
| Pelayo Fernández | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rayane Belid | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Bouare | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kumbulla | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dani Cárdenas | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Vertrouwd | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Getafe to win against Rayo Vallecano.
- What score did Fipster predict for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Getafe 2–0 Rayo Vallecano.
- What were the win probabilities for Getafe vs Rayo Vallecano?
- Fipster's model gave Getafe a 75% chance of winning, Rayo Vallecano a 12% chance, and a 13% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 75% confidence — a high-confidence call.