Serbia vs Germany
Germany cruises past Serbia with early blitz
A commanding 3-1 victory for Germany, sparked by an own goal and clinical finishing.
Germany took control early with an own goal from S. Babić in the third minute, quickly followed by F. Wirtz's strike to put them two up before the break. After the interval, B. Gruda extended Germany's lead before Babić redeemed himself with a goal for Serbia, but it was too little too late. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a 1-1 draw, as Germany comfortably secured the win.
Outcome probability
Serbia and Germany face off in League A with both sides eager to make an impact. The match promises a tactical battle, with neither team expected to dominate early on.
Match factors
Serbia's attacking midfielders pose a threat
Živković and Jović have strong home scoring rates and key attacking roles against Germany's defense
Germany's midfield scoring threat
Nmecha and Wirtz provide goal threat from midfield, challenging Serbia's defense
Serbia's attacking fullback contribution
Aleksa Terzić's assist rate exceeds league average for defenders, adding offensive width
Germany's recent clean sheets and defensive solidity
Germany has a 50% clean sheet rate, indicating defensive strength against Serbia's attack
Full squad availability for both teams
No confirmed injuries or outs, so teams can field strongest lineups
The context
In this competition, Serbia have struggled with four losses from four matches, scoring three and conceding eight. Germany have been more solid, with one win, two draws, and one loss, scoring three and conceding two. Their head-to-head history is evenly matched with one win each and a draw, averaging 1.7 goals per game.
Key insights
Andrija Živković
Serbia
Strong home scoring form with 1 goal in 4 games, key attacking midfielder role.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 4 appearances, 264 mins played
Luka Jović
Serbia
Consistent goal threat with 1 goal in 4 games and higher home scoring rate.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 4 appearances, 230 mins played
Felix Nmecha
Germany
High scoring rate with 1 goal in 2 games, important attacking midfielder for Germany.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 2 appearances, 148 mins played
Aleksa Terzić
Serbia
Above average assist rate for a defender, adding offensive width and crossing ability.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 3 appearances, 181 mins played
Analysis
Serbia's attacking midfielders, Andrija Živković and Luka Jović, have shown strong home scoring form, posing a threat to Germany's defence. Meanwhile, Germany's Felix Nmecha and Florian Wirtz provide goal-scoring threat from midfield, challenging Serbia's backline. Aleksa Terzić's attacking contributions from defence add width for Serbia, while Germany's recent defensive solidity, including a 50% clean sheet rate, suggests a tight contest. Both teams have full squads available, setting the stage for a competitive match.
Key facts
- 1.Serbia have lost all four matches in this competition, scoring 3 and conceding 8.
- 2.Germany have one win, two draws, and one loss, scoring 3 and conceding 2 in this competition.
- 3.In three head-to-head meetings, Serbia and Germany have each won once, with one draw.
- 4.Head-to-head matches average 1.7 goals per game.
- 5.Aleksa Terzić has an above-average assist rate for a defender, contributing offensively for Serbia.
- 6.Germany have kept clean sheets in 50% of their recent matches, showing defensive strength.
- 7.Both teams have full squad availability with no confirmed injuries.
Prediction
The match is expected to be cagey in the first half, with a 0-0 scoreline at halftime. Both teams are likely to find the net in the second half, resulting in a 1-1 draw. The prediction reflects a balanced contest where neither side dominates, with four cards anticipated as the game heats up.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Serbia
Away — Germany
The verdict
With key players in form and full squads available, Serbia and Germany are set for a closely fought encounter. Expect a tactical chess match with moments of attacking flair, culminating in a fair share of points for both sides.
Prediction generated 27 Oct 2026, 14:35 UTC · Fipster Model v1.166
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Babić (OG)
Wirtz
Gruda
Yellow Card
Samardžić
Džodić
Gruda
Assist: Kimmich
Babić
Babić
Yellow Card
Tadić
CvetkoviÄ
Treu
Pavlović
Havertz
Card upgrade confirmed
Dragojević
Red Card
Wirtz
Milinković-Savić
Gruda
Sukacev
Yellow Card
Živković
Yellow Card
Živković
Red Card
Match Statistics
Serbia
5-3-2Starting XI
- 2K. NedeljkovićD
- 4N. MilenkovićD
- 6S. GudeljD
- 7M. CvetkoviÄF
- 10D. TadićF
- 11L. SamardžićM
- 15S. BabićD
- 17S. DžodićM
- 20S. Milinković-SavićM
- 21P. SukacevD
- 23V. Milinković-SavićG
Substitutes
- 1Đ. PetrovićG
- 3S. BukinacD
- 5V. DragojevićM
- 8L. JovićF
- 9A. MitrovićF
- 12D. RosićG
- 13N. SimićD
- 14A. ŽivkovićF
- 16S. ErakovićD
- 18M. KrpićD
- 19V. LučićM
- 22V. KostovM
Germany
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 2M. ThiawD
- 4J. TahD
- 5A. PavlovićM
- 6J. KimmichM
- 7K. HavertzF
- 10B. GrudaM
- 13P. TreuD
- 17F. WirtzM
- 18M. MittelstädtD
- 19D. ScherhantM
Substitutes
- 3R. BakuD
- 8F. NmechaM
- 9N. FüllkrugF
- 11N. BrownD
- 12J. UrbigG
- 14T. BischofM
- 15N. SchlotterbeckD
- 16Finn JeltschD
- 20S. El MalaM
- 21A. NübelG
- 22L. KarlM
- 23Y. EbnoutalibF
Serbia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| D. Tadić | F | 64 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| V. Milinković-Savić | G | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Nedeljković | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Mitrović | F | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| M. CvetkoviÄ | F | 71 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Gudelj | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Džodić | M | 46 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| L. Samardžić | M | 46 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Kostov | M | 4 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Lučić | M | 26 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Sukacev | D | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| A. Živković | F | 43 | 5.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| N. Milenković | D | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Babić | D | 90 | 5.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Milinković-Savić | M | 86 | 5.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Dragojević | M | 30 | 5.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Krpić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Bukinac | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Eraković | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Đ. Petrović | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Rosić | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Jović | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Simić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Germany
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| B. Gruda | M | 86 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 9/14 |
| F. Wirtz | M | 81 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 5 | 3 | 2 | 2/4 |
| J. Kimmich | M | 90 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 2 | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| M. Mittelstädt | D | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| M. Thiaw | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Pavlović | M | 74 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| J. Tah | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| F. Nmecha | M | 9 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. ter Stegen | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Baku | D | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Füllkrug | F | 16 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| P. Treu | D | 73 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. El Mala | M | 4 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| D. Scherhant | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 2/5 |
| T. Bischof | M | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| K. Havertz | F | 74 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| L. Karl | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Nübel | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Schlotterbeck | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Urbig | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Brown | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Finn Jeltsch | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Ebnoutalib | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Serbia vs Germany?
- Fipster's AI model predicted a draw between Serbia and Germany.
- What score did Fipster predict for Serbia vs Germany?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Serbia 1–1 Germany.
- What were the win probabilities for Serbia vs Germany?
- Fipster's model gave Serbia a 33% chance of winning, Germany a 32% chance, and a 35% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.