Germany vs Greece
Greece stuns Germany with narrow win
D. Kourbelis' second-half strike seals a surprising victory for the visitors.
In a tightly contested UEFA Nations League clash, Greece edged out Germany 1-0 thanks to D. Kourbelis' decisive goal in the 74th minute. The result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a German win, delivering a neat upset on the road. Greece's resilience and timely strike proved enough to claim all three points.
Outcome probability
Germany and Greece face off in a UEFA Nations League League A match that promises a tight contest. Both sides have shown attacking promise recently, setting the stage for an engaging encounter.
Match factors
Germany’s midfield creativity vs Greece’s defense
Germany’s midfielders like Nmecha and Adeyemi show strong recent attacking form, potentially exploiting Greece’s defensive gaps.
Greece’s attacking midfield threat
Tzolis and Pavlidis have high involvement in goals and assists, posing a threat to Germany’s defense if not contained.
Germany’s defensive stability
Defenders like Tah provide solid defensive stats and passing reliability, key to limiting Greece’s scoring chances.
Recent positive form for key players
Both teams have players on positive scoring and assist streaks, indicating an open and competitive match.
The context
In this competition, Germany have played one match, drawing 1-1, while Greece have started strong with a 2-1 win. Both teams will be eager to improve their standing in League A - 2, making this fixture crucial for momentum.
Key insights
- F
F. Nmecha
Germany
Nmecha's clinical finishing and high impact in limited minutes make him a key attacking threat from midfield.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Rated 8.1 in last match vs Netherlands, scored 1 goal in 64 minutes
- C
C. Tzolis
Greece
Tzolis is a creative force with high involvement in attack, posing a significant threat to Germany's defence.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Rated 8.2 in last match vs Serbia, scored 1 goal with 6 shots total
- J
J. Tah
Germany
Tah provides defensive stability and reliable passing, crucial for limiting Greece's scoring chances.
UEFA Nations League 26/2758 passes and 2 tackles in last match
Analysis
Germany's midfield creativity, led by F. Nmecha and K. Adeyemi, has been impressive, with Nmecha scoring the only goal in their last match. Greece counter with the attacking threat of C. Tzolis and V. Pavlidis, both heavily involved in goals and assists. Defensively, Germany's J. Tah offers stability and passing reliability, which will be key to containing Greece's offensive efforts. The match is expected to be closely fought, with both sides capable of scoring but also vulnerable at the back.
Key facts
- 1.Germany have played 1 match in this competition with 0 wins, 1 draw, 0 losses, scoring 1 and conceding 1.
- 2.Greece have played 1 match in this competition with 1 win, 0 draws, 0 losses, scoring 2 and conceding 1.
- 3.The most probable halftime score is 0-0, indicating a cautious start from both sides.
- 4.The predicted fulltime scoreline of 2-1 is the most likely exact result for this fixture.
- 5.Germany's F. Nmecha scored the only goal in their last match, highlighting his attacking impact.
- 6.Greece's C. Tzolis has been a key creative force, scoring and taking multiple shots recently.
- 7.Defender J. Tah is crucial for Germany's defensive organisation and ball distribution.
- 8.Both teams have players with recent positive form, suggesting an open and competitive match.
Prediction
The prediction is a narrow 2-1 victory for Germany after a goalless first half. The slight edge for the home side reflects their creative midfield and defensive solidity, but Greece's attacking threat ensures the contest will be competitive and entertaining.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Germany
Away — Greece
No standout best passers flagged for Greece
The verdict
Expect a match where Germany's home advantage and midfield ingenuity just tip the scales against a resilient Greek side. A 2-1 scoreline suggests a game of fine margins and late goals, perfect for fans who enjoy a bit of drama.
Prediction generated 24 Sep 2026, 20:43 UTC · Fipster Model v1.161
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Bisseck
Yellow Card
Vagiannidis
Yellow Card
Karetsas
Yellow Card
Vagiannidis
Retsos
Yellow Card
Tetteh
Zafeiris
Conté
Schade
Kourbelis
Yellow Card
Kourbelis
Adeyemi
Tzolis
Nmecha
Brown
Pavlidis
Match Statistics
Germany
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2Y. BisseckD
- 4J. TahD
- 6J. KimmichM
- 8F. NmechaM
- 9K. SchadeM
- 14J. VagnomanD
- 15B. ContéM
- 18N. BrownD
- 19K. AdeyemiM
- 21A. NübelG
- 23Y. EbnoutalibF
Substitutes
- 1M. ter StegenG
- 3M. RosenfelderD
- 5Y. EngelhardtM
- 7C. FührichM
- 10J. BurkardtF
- 11N. AmiriM
- 12F. DahmenG
- 13P. TreuD
- 16A. StachM
- 17F. WirtzM
- 20S. GnabryF
- 22Hennes BehrensD
Greece
4-4-2Starting XI
- 2G. VagiannidisD
- 4K. MavropanosD
- 5P. RetsosD
- 10C. TzolisM
- 12K. TzolakisG
- 14V. PavlidisF
- 15T. AndroutsosM
- 16A. TettehF
- 19K. KaretsasM
- 20C. ZafeirisM
- 21K. TsimikasD
Substitutes
- 1O. VlachodimosG
- 3A. NtoiD
- 6D. KourbelisM
- 7G. MasourasF
- 8F. IoannidisF
- 9T. DouvikasF
- 11C. KostoulasF
- 13C. MandasG
- 17M. SaliakasD
- 18G. MichailidisD
- 22G. KiriakopoulosD
- 23C. MouzakitisM
Germany
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| J. Kimmich | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| K. Adeyemi | M | 75 | 7.1 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 4 | 2/6 |
| N. Brown | D | 84 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| F. Nmecha | M | 84 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Y. Ebnoutalib | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| J. Vagnoman | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Y. Bisseck | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Stach | M | 6 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Tah | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Schade | M | 65 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| A. Nübel | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hennes Behrens | D | 6 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Wirtz | M | 25 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Burkardt | F | 25 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| B. Conté | M | 65 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| S. Gnabry | F | 15 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| P. Treu | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Engelhardt | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Rosenfelder | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. ter Stegen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Dahmen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Führich | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Amiri | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Greece
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| K. Mavropanos | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| D. Kourbelis | M | 31 | 7.8 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| K. Tzolakis | G | 90 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Tsimikas | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Saliakas | D | 44 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Androutsos | M | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| G. Michailidis | D | 1 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Retsos | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Zafeiris | M | 59 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| G. Vagiannidis | D | 46 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Karetsas | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 4/5 |
| A. Tetteh | F | 59 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/3 |
| G. Masouras | F | 9 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Pavlidis | F | 89 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| F. Ioannidis | F | 31 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| C. Tzolis | M | 81 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| G. Kiriakopoulos | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Douvikas | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Mandas | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Ntoi | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Kostoulas | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Mouzakitis | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Vlachodimos | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Germany vs Greece?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Germany to win against Greece.
- What score did Fipster predict for Germany vs Greece?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Germany 2–1 Greece.
- What were the win probabilities for Germany vs Greece?
- Fipster's model gave Germany a 35% chance of winning, Greece a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.