Genoa vs Venezia
Genoa edge Venezia with Ellertsson strike
A solitary goal from M. Ellertsson secures a narrow home victory in Serie A.
Genoa managed a tight 1-0 win over Venezia thanks to M. Ellertsson's first-half goal at 25 minutes. The match was a close contest with no further goals, reflecting a disciplined defensive effort from both sides. Fipster's prediction of a home win was on the money, albeit with a slightly different scoreline.
Outcome probability
Genoa and Venezia face off in what promises to be a closely contested Serie A fixture. Both sides have struggled for points this season, making every goal and defensive action crucial in this encounter.
Match factors
Genoa's attacking options limited by injuries
Multiple key attackers including L. Venturino and L. Colombo are confirmed out, reducing scoring depth
Genoa's defensive passing and tackling superior
Genoa defenders like Østigård and Vásquez show higher passing accuracy and duel success than league averages
Venezia struggles with poor form and defense
Venezia has lost 6 straight games, conceding 2.7 goals per match on average
Genoa midfielders excel in interceptions and tackles
Frendrup and Ellertsson outperform league averages in defensive midfield metrics, likely disrupting Venezia's play
The context
Genoa currently sit 17th in the league with 4 points from 6 games, while Venezia are 20th with 3 points from 7 matches. Both teams are battling near the relegation zone, adding extra pressure to secure a positive result here.
Key insights
- L
L. Østigård
Genoa
L. Østigård's passing accuracy of 89% and duel win rate of 61.5% make him a defensive pillar for Genoa.
Serie A 26/27Passing accuracy 89%, duel win rate 61.5% vs league avg 52.9%
- M
M. Frendrup
Genoa
M. Frendrup's high interceptions per game (2.67) and passing accuracy (89%) disrupt Venezia's play effectively.
Serie A 26/27Interceptions per game 2.67, passing accuracy 89% vs league avg 0.48 and 78%
- K
Kike Pérez
Venezia
Kike Pérez is key for Venezia's midfield with 58.7 passes per game and 2.17 tackles per game, trying to stem Genoa's advances.
Serie A 26/2758.7 passes per game, 2.17 tackles per game vs league avg 0.92
Analysis
The first half is expected to be balanced, with a predicted 1-1 scoreline reflecting the competitive nature of the match. Genoa's defensive solidity, highlighted by players like L. Østigård who boasts an 89% passing accuracy and a strong duel win rate, will be key. Midfielders M. Frendrup and M. Ellertsson excel in interceptions and tackles, likely disrupting Venezia's rhythm. Venezia, on the other hand, have been struggling defensively, conceding an average of 2.7 goals per game and suffering six straight losses. Their midfield, led by Kike Pérez and A. Hainaut, will need to step up to challenge Genoa's dominance.
Key facts
- 1.Genoa are ranked 17th with 4 points from 6 games (W1 D1 L4).
- 2.Venezia are ranked 20th with 3 points from 7 games (W1 D0 L6).
- 3.Genoa defenders have higher passing accuracy and duel success than league averages.
- 4.Venezia have conceded an average of 2.7 goals per match this season.
- 5.Genoa midfielders Frendrup and Ellertsson excel in interceptions and tackles.
- 6.Multiple key Genoa attackers are out injured, limiting their scoring options.
Prediction
We predict Genoa to edge out Venezia 2-1 after a 1-1 halftime stalemate. The home side's superior defensive and midfield performances should allow them to score the decisive goal in the second half, despite Venezia's efforts.
The verdict
This match is set to be a tight affair with Genoa narrowly securing the win. Venezia's poor form and defensive frailties may cost them, but they will fight hard to avoid another defeat. Expect a competitive game with moments of quality from both sides.
Prediction generated 17 Oct 2026, 20:38 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ellertsson
Assist: El Shaarawy
Otoa
Yellow Card
Junior Messias
El Shaarawy
Otoa
Bašić
Haps
Hainaut
Mitaj
Wiafe
Sohm
Match Statistics
Genoa
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1J. BijlowG
- 2M. MitajM
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 10Junior MessiasM
- 18M. OsmajićF
- 22J. VásquezD
- 25H. TraorèM
- 34S. OtoaD
- 71S. WiafeM
- 77M. EllertssonM
- 92S. El ShaarawyM
Substitutes
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 8T. BaldanziM
- 9VítinhaF
- 11E. MeichtryM
- 16C. DramehD
- 20S. SabelliD
- 21Nikita SolodchenkoF
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 29L. ColomboF
- 31D. PuczkaD
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 39D. SommarivaG
- 99F. StolzG
Venezia
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1F. StankovićG
- 2M. MorenoD
- 5R. HapsM
- 10J. YeboahF
- 15Juan JesusD
- 18A. HainautM
- 19S. SohmM
- 25R. HalhalD
- 26T. BašićM
- 45A. AdamsF
- 71Kike PérezM
Substitutes
- 3J. SchingtienneD
- 6G. BusioM
- 7A. RrahmaniF
- 8Lamine DaboM
- 17A. Bella-KotchapD
- 20R. SagradoD
- 21Þ. HelgasonM
- 29L. LauberbachF
- 30M. DagassoM
- 32A. DuncanM
- 56K. LismanF
- 70P. MazzocchiD
- 77Toni FernándezM
- 95A. GomesD
- 96L. MontipòG
Genoa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Ellertsson | M | 90 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| J. Bijlow | G | 90 | 7.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. El Shaarawy | M | 62 | 7.6 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | — |
| J. Vásquez | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Østigård | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Mitaj | M | 81 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| H. Traorè | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 3/4 |
| D. Puczka | D | 9 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Marcandalli | D | 20 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexsandro Amorim | M | 9 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Otoa | D | 70 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Frendrup | M | 28 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Wiafe | M | 81 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| L. Colombo | F | 28 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Junior Messias | M | 62 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| M. Osmajić | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| F. Stolz | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Sabelli | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Sommariva | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Drameh | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikita Solodchenko | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vítinha | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Baldanzi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Meichtry | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Venezia
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Dagasso | M | 19 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | — | 5 | — |
| M. Moreno | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| R. Haps | M | 71 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| R. Halhal | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Juan Jesus | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. Sohm | M | 87 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Kike Pérez | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 4 | — |
| T. Bašić | M | 71 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| F. Stanković | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Adams | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/2 |
| L. Lauberbach | F | 3 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Rrahmani | F | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Hainaut | M | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | — |
| P. Mazzocchi | D | 19 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| J. Yeboah | F | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| A. Gomes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Bella-Kotchap | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Þ. Helgason | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Duncan | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Montipò | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Busio | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Schingtienne | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Sagrado | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lamine Dabo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Lisman | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Toni Fernández | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Genoa vs Venezia?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Genoa to win against Venezia.
- What score did Fipster predict for Genoa vs Venezia?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Genoa 2–1 Venezia.
- What were the win probabilities for Genoa vs Venezia?
- Fipster's model gave Genoa a 62% chance of winning, Venezia a 19% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 62% confidence — a medium-confidence call.