Genoa vs Juventus
Genoa stun Juventus with early double
Two first-half strikes from Ehizibue and Baldanzi seal a surprise home victory.
Genoa delivered a shock 2-0 win over Juventus in Serie A, with K. Ehizibue and T. Baldanzi scoring in the first half to secure the result. The home side's early dominance left Juventus unable to respond, defying Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of an away win. This unexpected outcome highlights Genoa's clinical edge on the day.
Outcome probability
Genoa and Juventus face off in a Serie A regular season match where the visitors, known as La Vecchia Signora, are tipped to come out on top. Both teams have had contrasting fortunes this season, setting the stage for an intriguing contest.
Match factors
Juventus missing key attackers
Francisco Conceição and others confirmed out, reducing attacking depth and options
Bremer's goal threat from defense
Bremer has scored 2 goals this season, well above defender average, adding scoring threat
Douglas Luiz controls midfield tempo
Douglas Luiz's high passing volume and accuracy gives Juventus midfield control advantage
Juventus strong away scoring streak
Juventus scored in all last 4 away games, showing good offensive form on the road
The context
Juventus currently sit 10th in the league with 11 points from 7 games, showing better form than Genoa, who are 16th with 7 points from 8 matches. Juventus also boast a superior goal difference and points-per-game ratio, highlighting their edge in this encounter.
Key insights
Bremer
Juventus
Bremer’s goal threat from defence adds an extra dimension to Juventus’ attack, making set pieces a real danger.
Serie A 26/272 goals in 7 appearances, 630 minutes played with 91% passing accuracy.
Douglas Luiz
Juventus
Douglas Luiz’s exceptional passing accuracy and volume give Juventus control in midfield, crucial for dictating the game.
Serie A 26/2791% passing accuracy, averaging 69+ passes per game.
R. Kolo Muani
Juventus
Kolo Muani leads Juventus’ attack with consistent goal involvement and assists, key to breaking down Genoa’s defence.
Serie A 26/271 goal and 1 assist in 7 appearances, 629 minutes played.
Analysis
Juventus have been strong on the road, scoring in all of their last four away games, which bodes well for their chances here. Key players like Bremer, a defender with a knack for goals, and Douglas Luiz, who controls the midfield tempo with impressive passing accuracy, provide tactical advantages. Genoa will rely on defensive stalwarts like L. Østigård and M. Frendrup to keep things tight, while Junior Messias could exploit any defensive lapses from Juventus. The predicted halftime score of 0-1 aligns with Juventus' tendency to start strongly away from home.
Key facts
- 1.Juventus rank 10th with 11 points from 7 games; Genoa are 16th with 7 points from 8 games.
- 2.Juventus have a better goal difference (+8) compared to Genoa this season.
- 3.Juventus have scored in all of their last four away matches.
- 4.Bremer has scored 2 goals this season, an impressive tally for a defender.
- 5.Douglas Luiz boasts a 91% passing accuracy and averages over 69 passes per game.
- 6.Genoa's L. Østigård maintains high defensive stats with 87-89% passing accuracy.
- 7.The most probable halftime score is 0-1, consistent with Juventus taking an early lead.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4, indicating moderate discipline issues.
Prediction
The forecast is a 2-1 victory for Juventus, with the away side likely to take an early lead and hold on despite Genoa's efforts to equalise. The match is expected to feature moderate disciplinary action, with around four cards anticipated.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Genoa
Away — Juventus
The verdict
In summary, Juventus' superior form and key player contributions should see them edge out Genoa in a closely fought match. While Genoa will put up a fight, the visitors' ability to score and control the midfield is expected to make the difference.
Prediction generated 25 Oct 2026, 19:01 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Ehizibue
Assist: Baldanzi
Baldanzi
Ellertsson
Alajbegović
Gatti
Cambiaso
Sarr
Baldanzi
Ehizibue
Zhegrova
Yellow Card
Douglas Luiz
Amorim
Osmajić
Match Statistics
Genoa
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1J. BijlowG
- 3K. EhizibueM
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 8T. BaldanziM
- 9VítinhaM
- 18M. OsmajićF
- 22J. VásquezD
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 77M. EllertssonM
Substitutes
- 2M. MitajD
- 10Junior MessiasF
- 11E. MeichtryM
- 20S. SabelliD
- 21Nikita SolodchenkoF
- 25H. TraorèM
- 29L. ColomboF
- 31D. PuczkaD
- 34S. OtoaD
- 39D. SommarivaG
- 71S. WiafeM
- 92S. El ShaarawyF
- 97D. SowM
- 99F. StolzG
Juventus
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 3BremerD
- 4F. GattiD
- 9R. Kolo MuaniF
- 12Douglas LuizM
- 15P. KaluluM
- 17Kerim-Sam AlajbegovićM
- 20A. CambiasoM
- 22W. McKennieM
- 25G. VicarioG
- 26J. LucumíD
- 29P. SarrM
Substitutes
- 6L. KellyD
- 8T. KoopmeinersM
- 11E. ZhegrovaF
- 13J. BogaF
- 23C. PinsoglioG
- 24D. RuganiD
- 27N. WoltemadeF
- 32J. CabalD
- 33NetoG
- 41A. OwusuM
- 43F. PagnuccoM
- 47A. DurmišiF
Genoa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| T. Baldanzi | M | 69 | 9.0 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | — |
| J. Vásquez | D | 90 | 8.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Østigård | D | 90 | 7.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| K. Ehizibue | M | 69 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Mitaj | D | 49 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| A. Marcandalli | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| M. Ellertsson | M | 41 | 7.1 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Alexsandro Amorim | M | 82 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| E. Meichtry | M | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Frendrup | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Wiafe | M | 8 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Bijlow | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Vítinha | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 0/3 |
| L. Colombo | F | 8 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Junior Messias | F | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Osmajić | F | 82 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Nikita Solodchenko | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Sommariva | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Sabelli | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Traorè | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Stolz | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Sow | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. El Shaarawy | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Otoa | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Puczka | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Juventus
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Bremer | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| N. Woltemade | F | 44 | 6.8 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| E. Zhegrova | F | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3/6 |
| Douglas Luiz | M | 77 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| T. Koopmeiners | M | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Boga | F | 31 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/2 |
| J. Lucumí | D | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| J. Cabal | D | 31 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Kalulu | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| A. Cambiaso | M | 59 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Kerim-Sam Alajbegović | M | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| F. Gatti | D | 46 | 6.1 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| R. Kolo Muani | F | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/4 |
| P. Sarr | M | 59 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| G. Vicario | G | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| W. McKennie | M | 90 | 5.8 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| F. Pagnucco | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Owusu | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Durmiši | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Pinsoglio | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Rugani | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Neto | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Kelly | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Genoa vs Juventus?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Juventus to win against Genoa.
- What score did Fipster predict for Genoa vs Juventus?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Genoa 1–2 Juventus.
- What were the win probabilities for Genoa vs Juventus?
- Fipster's model gave Genoa a 19% chance of winning, Juventus a 62% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 62% confidence — a medium-confidence call.