Genoa vs Fiorentina
Genoa stifle Fiorentina with early double
Messias and Osmajić set the tone for a narrow home victory.
Genoa secured a 2-1 win over Fiorentina thanks to early strikes from M. Osmajić and Junior Messias within the first 15 minutes. Fiorentina's J. Vásquez inadvertently handed Genoa the winning goal with an own goal in the 73rd minute, but it wasn't enough to overturn the deficit. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Fiorentina away win, delivering a surprise for those backing the visitors.
Outcome probability
Genoa face a tough challenge against Fiorentina in this Serie A regular season encounter. With both teams looking to make their mark early in the campaign, the clash promises some intriguing tactical battles and key individual performances.
Match factors
Fiorentina's potent away attack led by Mastantuono
Mastantuono's 3 goals in 4 games and 1.5 goals per away game give Fiorentina a clear attacking edge.
Genoa's Osmajić shows promising scoring form
Osmajić has scored 2 goals in last 5 games, outperforming Genoa's overall low scoring rate.
Colombo's creative form boosts Genoa's attack
Colombo's 3 assists in last 5 games highlight his key role in chance creation for Genoa.
Genoa missing key defender Vásquez due to red card suspension
Vásquez's absence weakens Genoa's defense and passing from the back, impacting stability.
Fiorentina's midfield creativity centered on Fagioli
Fagioli's 1 assist and high passing accuracy (85%) make him a crucial playmaker if fit (doubtful).
The context
This match is part of the sixth round of the Serie A regular season. Fiorentina have demonstrated stronger form so far, holding a points-per-game advantage over Genoa. Historically, Fiorentina have the upper hand in their head-to-head meetings, having won more encounters than Genoa, with a decent average goal tally in these fixtures.
Key insights
Franco Mastantuono
Fiorentina
Mastantuono's 3 goals in 4 games and 1.5 goals per away game give Fiorentina a clear attacking edge.
Serie A 26/273 goals in 4 games, 287 mins avg
Milutin Osmajić
Genoa
Osmajić has scored 2 goals in last 5 games, outperforming Genoa's overall low scoring rate.
Serie A 26/272 goals in last 5 games, 3 appearances, 69 avg mins
Lorenzo Colombo
Genoa
Colombo's 3 assists in last 5 games highlight his key role in chance creation for Genoa.
Serie A 26/273 assists last 5 games, 4 appearances, 75 avg mins
Nicolò Fagioli
Fiorentina
Fagioli's 1 assist and high passing accuracy (85%) make him a crucial playmaker if fit (doubtful).
Serie A 26/271 assist in 4 games, 270 mins avg 67.5
Analysis
Fiorentina's attacking threat is spearheaded by Franco Mastantuono, who boasts an impressive three goals in four games and a strong away scoring record. Genoa's Milutin Osmajić has shown promise with two goals in recent matches, but the absence of key defender Vásquez due to suspension weakens Genoa's defensive stability. Fiorentina's midfield creativity, led by Nicolò Fagioli, adds another dimension to their play, although his fitness remains a doubt. The statistical edge and tactical setup favour Fiorentina to dominate this encounter.
Key facts
- 1.Fiorentina have a points-per-game advantage (0.80) over Genoa (0.25) in the league.
- 2.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Fiorentina have won 7, Genoa 2, with 11 draws.
- 3.Head-to-head matches average 2.3 total goals (17 for Genoa, 29 for Fiorentina).
- 4.Franco Mastantuono is Fiorentina's top scorer with 3 goals in 4 games.
- 5.Milutin Osmajić has scored 2 goals in the last 5 games for Genoa.
- 6.Lorenzo Colombo leads Genoa with 3 assists in the last 5 games.
- 7.Genoa's defender Vásquez is suspended, weakening their defence.
- 8.Fiorentina's Nicolò Fagioli is a key creative midfielder with 1 assist and 85% passing accuracy.
Prediction
The prediction strongly favours Fiorentina to win 3-1. The away side's superior scoring form and Genoa's defensive vulnerabilities suggest a comfortable victory for La Viola. Expect Fiorentina to take control early and maintain their advantage throughout the match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Genoa
Away — Fiorentina
The verdict
In summary, Fiorentina's attacking firepower and Genoa's defensive challenges set the stage for a 3-1 away win. Key players like Mastantuono and Osmajić will be pivotal, but the overall balance tips in favour of Fiorentina to secure all three points.
Prediction generated 20 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC · Fipster Model v1.160
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Osmajić
Assist: Ellertsson
Ranieri
Yellow Card
Junior Messias
Assist: Osmajić
Inao Oulaï
Yellow Card
Inao Oulaï
Ranieri
El Shaarawy
Junior Messias
Viery
Yellow Card
Beto
Otoa
Vásquez (OG)
Traorè
Yellow Card
Álex Jiménez
Gnonto
Ehizibue
Ellertsson
Vásquez
Yellow Card
Wiafe
Yellow Card
Vítinha
Yellow Card
Sabelli
Yellow Card
Match Statistics
Genoa
3-4-2-1Starting XI
- 1J. BijlowG
- 3K. EhizibueM
- 5L. ØstigårdD
- 10Junior MessiasM
- 18M. OsmajićF
- 22J. VásquezD
- 25H. TraorèM
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 34S. OtoaD
- 77M. EllertssonM
- 92S. El ShaarawyM
Substitutes
- 2M. MitajD
- 8T. BaldanziM
- 9VítinhaF
- 16C. DramehD
- 20S. SabelliD
- 21Nikita SolodchenkoF
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 31D. PuczkaD
- 39D. SommarivaG
- 71S. WiafeM
- 75Gaël LafontM
- 99F. StolzG
Fiorentina
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 3R. DrăgușinD
- 6L. RanieriD
- 20Álex JiménezD
- 21ValdeD
- 23BetoF
- 27C. NdourM
- 29W. GnontoM
- 30Franco MastantuonoM
- 42C. Inao OulaïM
- 43David de GeaG
- 44N. FagioliM
Substitutes
- 2DodôD
- 4M. BrescianiniM
- 5M. PongračićD
- 17João MárioD
- 19L. LezzeriniG
- 25A. NjieF
- 28PoteM
- 32Mateo PellegrinoF
- 33VieryD
- 53O. ChristensenG
- 72B. MazzeoF
Genoa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Osmajić | F | 90 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Junior Messias | M | 57 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Ellertsson | M | 82 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 3/3 |
| L. Østigård | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| H. Traorè | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| K. Ehizibue | M | 81 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| A. Marcandalli | D | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Bijlow | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Frendrup | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| S. Otoa | D | 66 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. El Shaarawy | M | 57 | 6.4 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 1/2 |
| Vítinha | F | 33 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| D. Puczka | D | 9 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Sabelli | D | 8 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Wiafe | M | 33 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| J. Vásquez | D | 90 | 5.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Mitaj | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikita Solodchenko | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Drameh | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Sommariva | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Stolz | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gaël Lafont | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Baldanzi | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Fiorentina
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Mateo Pellegrino | F | 25 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| A. Njie | F | 44 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| David de Gea | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Drăgușin | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Ndour | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Beto | F | 65 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Franco Mastantuono | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 3/6 |
| C. Inao Oulaï | M | 46 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| L. Ranieri | D | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Dodô | D | 10 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valde | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Viery | D | 44 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Pote | M | 9 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Álex Jiménez | D | 80 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| W. Gnonto | M | 81 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| N. Fagioli | M | 90 | 5.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 2/4 |
| B. Mazzeo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Brescianini | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Pongračić | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Christensen | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Lezzerini | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Mário | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Genoa vs Fiorentina?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Fiorentina to win against Genoa.
- What score did Fipster predict for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Genoa 1–3 Fiorentina.
- What were the win probabilities for Genoa vs Fiorentina?
- Fipster's model gave Genoa a 4% chance of winning, Fiorentina a 92% chance, and a 4% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 92% confidence — a high-confidence call.