Genoa vs AC Milan
Match recap
AC Milan beat Genoa 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Vásquez scored for Genoa; Nkunku and Athekame replied for AC Milan. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.35 for Genoa versus 1.89 for AC Milan. Genoa sit 16th in the Serie A table while AC Milan are 5th.
Analysis
As Genoa host AC Milan in this late-season Serie A fixture, both teams look poised for a balanced contest. With Genoa aiming to solidify their mid-table standing and Milan pushing for European qualification, a competitive match is on the cards.
Genoa sit 14th with 41 points, while AC Milan are 4th with 67 points. Historically, Milan have the upper hand with 11 wins in 20 meetings, but Genoa have shown resilience at home. Injuries to key players on both sides add an intriguing twist to this encounter.
Genoa's top scorer L. Colombo, with 7 goals this season, will be crucial, especially given his consistent form at home. Meanwhile, Milan's defensive solidity, led by S. Pavlović, could frustrate Genoa's attack. Both teams have injury concerns: Milan miss their top scorer Leão and creative midfielder Rabiot, while Genoa are without Malinovskyi and Østigård. These absences may balance the scales, suggesting a closely contested match.
Prediction
The forecast is a 1-1 draw, reflecting the balanced nature of this fixture. The halftime score is expected to be goalless, with both sides cautious early on. A total of four cards is predicted, indicating a competitive but fair game. Confidence in this outcome stands at 36%, acknowledging the unpredictability inherent in such a tight match.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Key Injuries Affecting Both Teams
Genoa missing key midfielder Malinovskyi and defender Østigård; Milan missing top scorer Leão and creative midfielder Rabiot.
Set-Piece Threat from Genoa Defenders
Genoa's defenders like Aarón Martín and Marcandalli provide assists and goals from set-pieces, challenging Milan's defense.
Milan's Superior Defensive Record
Milan concedes fewer goals on average and has higher clean sheet percentage, indicating defensive strength.
Genoa's Recent Scoring Inconsistency
Genoa has struggled to score consistently at home recently, which may limit their goal output.
Milan's Midfield Creativity Limited by Injuries
Absence of Rabiot and Pulišić reduces Milan's creative options, potentially easing Genoa's defensive burden.
Key Takeaways
In summary, expect a tactical battle with both teams sharing points. Genoa's home advantage and Milan's defensive strength should cancel each other out, leading to a draw that keeps both sides' ambitions alive as the season nears its conclusion.
- AC Milan have won 11 of 20 matches against Genoa, with 6 draws and 3 Genoa wins.
- Head-to-head matches average 2.3 goals, aligning with the predicted 1-1 scoreline.
- AC Milan rank 4th with 67 points; Genoa are 14th with 41 points, showing Milan's stronger league position.
- Genoa's L. Colombo is their top scorer with 7 goals this season, key to their attacking threat.
- Milan's S. Pavlović is a defensive stalwart contributing to their solid backline.
- Both teams are missing key players due to injury, impacting creativity and defense.
- The predicted total of 4 cards suggests a competitive but controlled match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Genoa
Away — AC Milan
No standout top scorers flagged for AC Milan
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Bijlow
Yellow Card
Nkunku
Penalty
Vítinha
Yellow Card
Gabbia
Yellow Card
Baldanzi
Giménez
Fofana
Tomori
Yellow Card
Tomori
Nkunku
Athekame
Assist: Pulišić
Jashari
Colombo
Vásquez
Ricci
Yellow Card
Amorim
Match Statistics
Genoa
4-3-2-1Starting XI
- 4Alexsandro AmorimM
- 8T. BaldanziM
- 9VítinhaM
- 16J. BijlowG
- 17R. MalinovskyiM
- 22J. VásquezD
- 27A. MarcandalliD
- 29L. ColomboF
- 32M. FrendrupM
- 34S. OtoaD
- 77M. EllertssonD
Substitutes
- 1N. LealiG
- 3Aarón MartínD
- 13N. ZätterströmD
- 18C. EkubanF
- 20S. SabelliD
- 21J. EkhatorF
- 39D. SommarivaG
- 40KlisysD
- 73P. MasiniM
- 74Mamedi Doucoure
- 75Gaël LafontM
- 80Jacopo GrossiM
- 99W. L. OuedraogoD
AC Milan
3-5-2Starting XI
- 7S. GiménezF
- 12A. RabiotM
- 16M. MaignanG
- 18C. NkunkuF
- 19Y. FofanaM
- 23F. TomoriD
- 24Z. AthekameM
- 30A. JashariM
- 31S. PavlovićD
- 33D. BartesaghiM
- 46M. GabbiaD
Substitutes
- 1P. TerraccianoG
- 4S. RicciM
- 5K. De WinterD
- 8R. Loftus-CheekM
- 9N. FüllkrugF
- 11C. PulišićM
- 14L. ModrićM
- 27D. OdoguD
- 34V. VladimirovD
- 96L. TorrianiG
Genoa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Johan Vásquez(C) | D | 90 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Morten Frendrup | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Vitinha | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/3 |
| Alexsandro Amorim | M | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Alessandro Marcandalli | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ruslan Malinovskyi | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 4 | — | 2 | — |
| Justin Bijlow | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo Colombo | F | 85 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Sebastian Otoa | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Mikael Ellertsson | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Tommaso Baldanzi | M | 64 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Wedtoin Latif Ouedraogo | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefano Sabelli | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniele Sommariva | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicola Leali | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Patrizio Masini | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gael Lafont | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nils Zätterström | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mamedi Doucoure | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lukas Klisys | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jacopo Grossi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jeff Ekhator | F | 26 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Aarón Martín | D | 10 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caleb Ekuban | F | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
AC Milan
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Zachary Athekame | M | 90 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Christopher Nkunku | F | 76 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Mike Maignan(C) | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Davide Bartesaghi | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Fikayo Tomori | D | 76 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Youssouf Fofana | M | 68 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Ardon Jashari | M | 85 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Santiago Giménez | F | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Adrien Rabiot | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Strahinja Pavlović | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/4 |
| Matteo Gabbia | D | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luka Modrić | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pietro Terracciano | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cheveyo Mul-Balentien | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lorenzo Torriani | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David Odogu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Valeri Ivanov Vladimirov | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Christian Pulišić | M | 14 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Niclas Füllkrug | F | 22 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Koni De Winter | D | 14 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ruben Loftus-Cheek | M | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuele Ricci | M | 22 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |