Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa
Kasımpaşa snatch late win at Gençlerbirliği
A stoppage-time strike seals a 2-1 victory after Gençlerbirliği's early lead.
Gençlerbirliği S.K. looked set for at least a draw after Ousmane Diabate's early goal at 23 minutes, but Kasımpaşa fought back with A. Benedyczak equalising in the 79th minute. The visitors then clinched the win with G. Yalçın's dramatic stoppage-time winner. This result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of a draw, delivering a late upset.
Outcome probability
The new season kicks off with Gençlerbirliği S.K. facing Kasımpaşa in what promises to be a competitive encounter. Both teams have made some summer moves and will be eager to start their campaigns on a positive note.
Key facts
- 1.Gençlerbirliği S.K. signed Kévin Rodrigues on a free transfer this summer.
- 2.Gençlerbirliği S.K. released M. Mimaroğlu ahead of the new season.
- 3.Kasımpaşa signed G. Yalçın as a free agent during the summer.
- 4.Kasımpaşa lost N. Opoku and have P. Guèye out on loan.
- 5.Gençlerbirliği S.K. finished 14th last season with 34 points from 34 games.
- 6.Kasımpaşa finished 13th last season with 35 points from 34 games.
- 7.Gençlerbirliği S.K. have a better goal difference than Kasımpaşa by 5 goals last season.
- 8.The predicted final score is a 1-1 draw with Kasımpaşa leading at halftime.
The context
Gençlerbirliği S.K. have strengthened their squad with the arrival of Kévin Rodrigues on a free transfer, while releasing M. Mimaroğlu. Kasımpaşa have also been active, signing G. Yalçın as a free agent but losing N. Opoku and P. Guèye, the latter on loan. These changes could influence the dynamics as both sides look to find their rhythm early in the season.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Gençlerbirliği S.K.
Away — Kasımpaşa
Analysis
The prediction suggests a closely fought match with Kasımpaşa likely to take a 1-0 lead by halftime. Gençlerbirliği S.K., however, are expected to respond in the second half to level the score. Both teams finished last season close in the league standings, with Kasımpaşa just one place above Gençlerbirliği and a slightly inferior goal difference. This balance is reflected in the expected 1-1 draw, indicating a match where neither side dominates for long.
Prediction
We anticipate a 1-1 draw, with Kasımpaşa scoring first and Gençlerbirliği S.K. equalising after the break. The match is expected to be competitive and balanced, with a total of around four cards likely, suggesting a game with some robust challenges but no major disciplinary drama.
The verdict
Both teams will take valuable points from this opener, setting a foundation for the season ahead. The draw reflects their closely matched capabilities and the impact of their summer squad changes. Fans can expect an engaging contest with moments of quality from both sides.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Diabate
Assist: Goutas
Boz
Karapo
Mendes
Yellow Card
Diabate
Yellow Card
Yellow Card
Rak-Sakyi
Tongya
Traoré
Thalisson Kelven
Yellow Card
Pedro Mendes
Demirbay
Benedyczak
Tiago Gouveia
Yellow Card
Winck
Yellow Card
Ülgün
Thalisson Kelven
Ilie
Yalçın
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 2 |  Gençlerbirliği S.K. | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +2 | 7 |
| 3 |  Fenerbahçe | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | +3 | 6 |
| 5 |  Rizespor | 3 | 2 | 0 | 1 | 0 | 6 |
| 6 |  Kasımpaşa | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0 | +1 | 5 |
| 7 |  Başakşehir | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | +1 | 4 |
Match Statistics
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 2Thalisson KelvenD
- 6D. GoutasD
- 7Tiago GouveiaM
- 9Pedro MendesF
- 10F. TongyaM
- 13Pedro PereiraD
- 14A. TraoréM
- 35O. ÜlgünM
- 42Ousmane DiabateM
- 70İ. EğribayatG
- 77A. DursunD
Substitutes
- 3Y. AydarD
- 12V. OrakpoF
- 20S. KoïtaF
- 23G. AkkanG
- 45P. MartorF
- 48S. UçanM
- 53M. ÇavuşoğluD
- 83Rafael LuÃsM
- 88F. ÜzümD
- 90M. BaltacıD
Kasımpaşa
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. GianniotisG
- 2Cláudio WinckD
- 7A. KolM
- 9A. BenedyczakF
- 14K. MouangaD
- 17J. Rak-SakyiM
- 26K. DemirbayM
- 27M. IlieD
- 45A. KarapoD
- 51Elson MendesM
- 66E. BozM
Substitutes
- 4A. ArousD
- 5J. JessenD
- 8A. MüjdeM
- 11T. DiarraF
- 19M. RaffertyM
- 25A. YanarG
- 30A. T. DagbasiD
- 35M. DenizF
- 50G. YalçınF
- 99M. BektasF
Gençlerbirliği S.K.
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Pedro Pereira | D | 89 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Ousmane Diabate | M | 89 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Tiago Gouveia | M | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/3 |
| Adama Malouda Traoré | M | 78 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Oğulcan Ülgün | M | 85 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Dimitris Goutas(C) | D | 89 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Abdurrahim Dursun | D | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thalisson | D | 85 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| İrfan Can Eğribayat | G | 89 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Franco Tongya | M | 68 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Pedro Mendes | F | 78 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | 3 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Salih Uçan | M | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gökhan Akkan | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Metehan Baltacı | D | 4 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ensar Çavuşoğlu | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Victor Orakpo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yiğit Hamza Aydar | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Prince Martor | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sekou Koita | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rafael Luis | M | 21 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Fıratcan Üzüm | D | 11 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Kasımpaşa
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Adrian Benedyczak | F | 89 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Matei Ilie | D | 89 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Elson Mendes | M | 89 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| Kerem Demirbay | M | 77 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Andreas Gianniotis | G | 89 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ali Yavuz Kol | M | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 2/5 |
| Emirhan Boz | M | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cláudio Winck(C) | D | 89 | 6.7 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Kevin Mouanga | D | 89 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Ayberk Karapo | D | 45 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jesurun Rak-Sakyi | M | 61 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Atakan Mujde | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adem Arous | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Muhammed Bektaş | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ahmet Taha Dağbaşı | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sercan Deniz | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ali Emre Yanar | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcus Rafferty | M | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/4 |
| Güven Yalçın | F | 28 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Thiemoko Diarra | F | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jakob Jessen | D | 44 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
- Fipster's AI model predicted a draw between Gençlerbirliği S.K. and Kasımpaşa.
- What score did Fipster predict for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Gençlerbirliği S.K. 1–1 Kasımpaşa.
- What were the win probabilities for Gençlerbirliği S.K. vs Kasımpaşa?
- Fipster's model gave Gençlerbirliği S.K. a 24% chance of winning, Kasımpaşa a 23% chance, and a 53% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 53% confidence — a medium-confidence call.