Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK
Erzurumspor FK stuns Gaziantep FK with late flourish
A commanding second-half display sees Erzurumspor FK overturn expectations and claim a 3-1 victory.
Erzurumspor FK defied the low-confidence prediction favouring Gaziantep FK by securing a 3-1 win in the Süper Lig. Miguel Cardoso and A. Gerxhaliu struck after the break to give Erzurumspor a strong lead, before K. Çalhanoğlu pulled one back for Gaziantep. However, G. Giorbelidze sealed the victory deep into stoppage time, ensuring Erzurumspor's impressive away triumph.
Outcome probability
Gaziantep FK and Erzurumspor FK face off in a Turkish league regular season match that promises a close contest. Both teams have had mixed starts to the campaign, but Gaziantep's slightly better form and goal difference give them a slight edge.
Match factors
Kozłowski's recent scoring form boosts Gaziantep attack
Kacper Kozłowski has scored 2 goals in last 5 games, showing strong finishing and key role in attack
Alexandru Maxim leads Gaziantep in assists and creativity
Maxim's 2 assists this season and high passing accuracy make him a key playmaker
Erzurumspor's Tozlu maintains scoring consistency
Eren Tozlu has 2 goals in last 5 matches, providing steady offensive output
Gaziantep missing key attacker F. Bavuk
Bavuk's hamstring injury sidelines a potential scoring option, increasing reliance on Kozłowski and Sorescu
Maxim's set-piece and creative role key against Erzurumspor
Maxim's assist record and passing stats suggest he will be central to Gaziantep's attacking moves
The context
Gaziantep FK currently sit 11th in the league with 4 points from 3 games, showing a balanced record of one win, one draw, and one loss. Erzurumspor FK are further down the table in 17th place with just 1 point from 3 games, having yet to register a win. Gaziantep's superior goal difference and points per game highlight their relative advantage this season.
Key insights
Kacper Kozłowski
Gaziantep FK
Kozłowski's recent scoring form boosts Gaziantep's attack with 2 goals in last 5 matches.
Süper Lig 26/272 goals in 6 games, 0.33 avg per game
Alexandru Maxim
Gaziantep FK
Maxim leads Gaziantep in assists and creativity, providing 2 assists this season with high passing accuracy.
Süper Lig 26/272 assists in 6 games, 0.33 avg per game
Eren Tozlu
Erzurumspor FK
Tozlu maintains scoring consistency for Erzurumspor with 2 goals in last 5 matches.
Süper Lig 26/272 goals in 7 games, 0.29 avg per game
Analysis
Gaziantep's attack is spearheaded by Kacper Kozłowski, who has scored twice in his last five matches and is in fine form. Alexandru Maxim's creativity and two assists this season make him a key playmaker likely to unlock Erzurumspor's defence. Erzurumspor's main threat comes from Eren Tozlu, who has also netted twice recently. However, Gaziantep's defensive solidity, including contributions from Myenty Abena, should keep Erzurumspor's chances limited. The match is expected to be tight, with a moderate disciplinary outlook predicting around four cards.
Key facts
- 1.Gaziantep FK are 11th with 4 points from 3 games (W1 D1 L1).
- 2.Erzurumspor FK are 17th with 1 point from 3 games (W0 D1 L2).
- 3.Gaziantep FK have a goal difference advantage of +7 over Erzurumspor FK.
- 4.Gaziantep FK average 1.33 points per game compared to Erzurumspor FK's 0.33.
- 5.Kacper Kozłowski has scored 2 goals in his last 5 matches for Gaziantep FK.
- 6.Alexandru Maxim leads Gaziantep FK with 2 assists this season.
- 7.Eren Tozlu is Erzurumspor FK's top scorer with 2 goals in the last 5 games.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4, indicating moderate discipline.
Prediction
We anticipate a cautious first half with no goals, followed by a narrow 1-0 victory for Gaziantep FK. Their home advantage and sharper attacking players should be enough to break the deadlock, while Erzurumspor will struggle to find the net.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Gaziantep FK
Away — Erzurumspor FK
The verdict
In a fixture where margins are fine, Gaziantep FK's slightly better form and key player performances should see them edge out Erzurumspor FK. Expect a closely fought match with limited scoring opportunities, culminating in a slender home win.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 17:53 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Yumlu
Abena
Yellow Card
Abena
Stewart
Miguel Cardoso
Assist: Tozlu
Kızıldağ
Gerxhaliu
Assist: Ovacıklı
Çalhanoğlu
Assist: Dursun
Bacuna
Tozlu
Miguel Cardoso
Camara
Rodríguez
Kozłowski
Yellow Card
Giorbelidze
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Galatasaray | 3 | 2 | 1 | 0 | +5 | 7 |
| 10 |  Alanyaspor | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 11 |  Gaziantep FK | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 0 | 4 |
| 12 |  Amed | 2 | 1 | 0 | 1 | +1 | 3 |
| 16 |  Göztepe | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -2 | 1 |
| 17 |  Erzurumspor FK | 3 | 0 | 1 | 2 | -7 | 1 |
| 18 |  Konyaspor | 3 | 0 | 0 | 3 | -4 | 0 |
Match Statistics
Gaziantep FK
4-1-4-1Starting XI
- 2Luis PérezD
- 3D. CamaraM
- 7J. BacunaM
- 9T. StewartF
- 10K. KozłowskiM
- 14M. AbenaD
- 18D. SorescuM
- 21A. SyllaD
- 23K. ÇalhanoğluD
- 25K. TobiaszG
- 44A. MaximM
Substitutes
- 4A. KızıldağD
- 5E. SarıkayaD
- 8V. GidadoM
- 11M. CihanM
- 17K. GassamaM
- 19S. DursunF
- 28H. DervişoğluF
- 35A. DadakdenizG
- 77Sabahattin DesticiD
- 83M. MujdeciM
Erzurumspor FK
5-3-2Starting XI
- 1E. TaşkıranG
- 4A. GerxhaliuD
- 6B. BaiyeM
- 10E. TozluF
- 15G. GiorbelidzeD
- 18N. MujakićD
- 20Miguel CardosoF
- 22M. YumluD
- 42E. OwusuM
- 53O. OvacıklıD
- 65M. RodríguezM
Substitutes
- 2F. EboseleD
- 3Y. KırtayD
- 8S. AkgünM
- 9G. KerkF
- 19I. DiabateF
- 23C. BayrakD
- 31M. OrbanićG
- 77L. AgyekumM
- 90N. AxundzadəF
- 99M. FettahoğluF
Gaziantep FK
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Abakar Sylla | D | 80 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Alexandru Maxim(C) | M | 80 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 4 | 0/1 |
| Drissa Camara | M | 79 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 1/2 |
| Myenty Abena | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Trivante Stewart | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Deian Sorescu | M | 80 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Kerim Çalhanoğlu | D | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| Kacper Kozłowski | M | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 3 | 0/2 |
| Luis Pérez | D | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Juninho Bacuna | M | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Kacper Tobiasz | G | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ataberk Dadakdeniz | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Efe Sarıkaya | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mirza Cihan | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Halil Dervişoğlu | F | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gidado Victor Ntino-Emo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Karamba Gassama | M | 6 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mervan Müjdeci | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arda Kızıldağ | D | 13 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sabahattin Destici | D | 22 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Serdar Dursun | F | 35 | 6.2 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | — |
Erzurumspor FK
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Miguel Cardoso | F | 77 | 8.0 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Amar Gerxhaliu | D | 80 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ertuğrul Taşkıran | G | 80 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Orhan Ovacıklı | D | 80 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 3 | — |
| Elisha Owusu | M | 80 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Eren Tozlu | F | 77 | 6.9 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Mustafa Yumlu(C) | D | 29 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Brandon Baiye | M | 80 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Martín Rodríguez | M | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nihad Mujakić | D | 80 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| Guram Giorbelidze | D | 80 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Festy Ebosele | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mustafa Fettahoglu | F | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ibrahim Diabaté | F | 3 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lawrence Agyekum | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nariman Akhundzade | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gyrano Kerk | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sefa Akgün | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matija Orbanić | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cengizhan Bayrak | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yakup Kırtay | D | 51 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Gaziantep FK to win against Erzurumspor FK.
- What score did Fipster predict for Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Gaziantep FK 1–0 Erzurumspor FK.
- What were the win probabilities for Gaziantep FK vs Erzurumspor FK?
- Fipster's model gave Gaziantep FK a 40% chance of winning, Erzurumspor FK a 30% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 40% confidence — a low-confidence call.