FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen
Werder Bremen edge Mainz in five-goal thriller
N. Füllkrug's double penalties set the tone for Bremen's narrow win.
Werder Bremen secured a 3-2 victory over FSV Mainz 05 in a pulsating Bundesliga encounter, with N. Füllkrug converting two early penalties to give Bremen a strong start. Mainz fought back through A. Caci and Lee Jae-Sung, but L. Reis's goal after the break proved decisive. This result defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Mainz win, proving the visitors' resilience in a tightly contested match.
Outcome probability
FSV Mainz 05 and Werder Bremen face off in a regular season clash where Mainz look poised to leverage their midfield control and home form to edge out Bremen.
Match factors
Mainz missing key attackers limits scoring options
Confirmed absences of attackers S. Katompa Mvumpa and others reduce Mainz's forward threat
Werder Bremen's doubtful defenders may weaken defense
Doubtful status of A. Pieper and Y. Regeer could impact defensive solidity if they miss out
Mainz's midfielders excel in passing and tackling
Players like F. Gruber and N. Amiri surpass league averages in passing accuracy and defensive actions
Werder Bremen's forwards show strong recent form
Players M. Grüll and N. Füllkrug have consistent goal contributions and high match ratings
Mainz's midfield control could dominate match tempo
Midfielders like A. Caci and N. Amiri combine high passing and tackling rates to control play
The context
In their 20 meetings, Werder Bremen hold a slight edge with 9 wins to Mainz's 7, alongside 4 draws. Bremen currently sit 7th in the league with 8 points, just ahead of Mainz in 9th with 7 points after five games. This fixture promises a competitive encounter between two closely matched sides.
Key insights
- A
A. Caci
FSV Mainz 05
A. Caci has been a key contributor in both attack and defence, scoring twice recently and maintaining an above-average tackling rate of 2.4 per game.
Bundesliga 26/272 goals in recent home match, 2.4 tackles per game
- P
P. Tietz
Werder Bremen
P. Tietz is a consistent goal scorer with multiple goals in recent matches, showing strong shooting and involvement in attack.
Bundesliga 26/27Multiple goals in recent matches, high match ratings up to 9.47
- F
F. Gruber
FSV Mainz 05
F. Gruber excels in passing accuracy (84%) and defensive contributions, making him a defensive stalwart for Mainz.
Bundesliga 26/2784% passing accuracy, 12 tackles and 8 interceptions in 5 games
Analysis
Mainz's midfielders, particularly A. Caci and F. Gruber, have been instrumental this season with high passing accuracy and tackling rates, enabling them to dictate the tempo. Despite missing key attackers like S. Katompa Mvumpa, Mainz's midfield strength and home advantage should compensate. Werder Bremen's forwards, including P. Tietz and S. Becker, have shown strong recent form, but defensive doubts over A. Pieper and Y. Regeer could undermine their solidity. The head-to-head average of 2.8 goals per match suggests an open game, but Mainz's ability to control midfield battles gives them the edge.
Key facts
- 1.Werder Bremen lead the head-to-head with 9 wins to Mainz's 7 in 20 matches.
- 2.Average goals per match between these sides is 2.8, with Mainz scoring 27 and Bremen 28 in total.
- 3.Werder Bremen are 7th in the league with 8 points from 5 games (W2 D2 L1).
- 4.FSV Mainz 05 are 9th with 7 points from 5 games (W2 D1 L2).
- 5.Mainz's midfielders like A. Caci have high tackling rates (2.4 per game) and contribute both offensively and defensively.
- 6.Werder Bremen's defender A. Pieper is doubtful, potentially weakening their defence.
- 7.Mainz's F. Gruber boasts 84% passing accuracy and strong defensive stats with 12 tackles and 8 interceptions in 5 games.
Prediction
We expect Mainz to take an early lead, reflected in a 1-0 halftime score, and extend their advantage to a 3-1 fulltime victory. The match should feature around three cards, indicating a competitive but controlled contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — FSV Mainz 05
Away — Werder Bremen
The verdict
With Mainz's midfield dominance and home advantage, they are well placed to secure a 3-1 win over Werder Bremen. Bremen's attacking threats will keep the game lively, but defensive uncertainties may cost them dearly.
Prediction generated 17 Oct 2026, 15:30 UTC · Fipster Model v1.164
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Füllkrug
Penalty
Füllkrug
Penalty
Caci
Assist: Becker
Reis
Yellow Card
Deman
Weiser
Reis
Assist: Grüll
Lee Jae-Sung
Assist: Caci
Mwene
Yellow Card
Chuky San José
Caci
Lee Jae-Sung
Füllkrug
da Costa
Becker
Hollerbach
Yellow Card
Grüll
Yellow Card
Sano
Schwolow
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 8 | 5 | 3 | 0 | +19 | 18 |
| 4 |  RB Leipzig | 8 | 5 | 0 | 3 | +11 | 15 |
| 5 |  Werder Bremen | 8 | 4 | 3 | 1 | +3 | 15 |
| 6 |  Bayer Leverkusen | 8 | 4 | 1 | 3 | +2 | 13 |
| 8 |  Eintracht Frankfurt | 8 | 3 | 2 | 3 | -5 | 11 |
| 9 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 8 | 3 | 1 | 4 | 0 | 10 |
| 10 |  FC Augsburg | 8 | 2 | 3 | 3 | +3 | 9 |
Match Statistics
FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2Starting XI
- 1A. SchwolowG
- 2P. MweneM
- 4S. PoschD
- 6K. SanoM
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 9P. TietzF
- 10N. AmiriM
- 19A. CaciM
- 21D. da CostaD
- 23S. BeckerF
- 48K. PotulskiD
Substitutes
- 3F. GruberD
- 5E. MartelM
- 8P. NebelM
- 11R. KönigsdörfferF
- 15L. MaloneyM
- 17B. HollerbachF
- 30S. WidmerD
- 40M. KinzigG
- 47R. NakuzolaD
Werder Bremen
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1K. HeinG
- 2O. DemanD
- 5A. PieperD
- 8M. WeiserM
- 10N. FüllkrugF
- 13ArthurD
- 15L. ReisM
- 17M. GrüllM
- 20Chuky San JoséM
- 32M. FriedlD
- 44Y. RegeerM
Substitutes
- 3O. WójcikD
- 14S. LynenM
- 18E. DinkçiF
- 19K. QuetantF
- 23Dariusz StalmachM
- 26C. IttenF
- 30A. SchlagerG
- 33Mick SchmetgensD
- 38P. ErevbenagieF
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Caci | M | 75 | 8.6 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5 | — |
| S. Becker | F | 85 | 7.4 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| Lee Jae-Sung | M | 75 | 7.4 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 1/1 |
| K. Potulski | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| K. Sano | M | 91 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| D. da Costa | D | 85 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| A. Schwolow | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Amiri | M | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 5 | 2/5 |
| R. Königsdörffer | F | 15 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Tietz | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 5 | 1 | — | — |
| B. Hollerbach | F | 5 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| S. Posch | D | 90 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Widmer | D | 15 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Nebel | M | 5 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Mwene | M | 90 | 5.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| E. Martel | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| F. Gruber | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kinzig | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Nakuzola | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Maloney | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Werder Bremen
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Reis | M | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/1 |
| K. Hein | G | 90 | 7.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| N. Füllkrug | F | 81 | 7.3 | 2 | — | 4 | 3 | — | — |
| M. Grüll | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| M. Weiser | M | 59 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Arthur | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/5 |
| A. Pieper | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| E. Dinkçi | F | 18 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Y. Regeer | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Friedl | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| C. Itten | F | 9 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Chuky San José | M | 72 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | — |
| Mick Schmetgens | D | 44 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Wójcik | D | 31 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| O. Deman | D | 46 | 5.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Dariusz Stalmach | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Lynen | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Schlager | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Erevbenagie | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Quetant | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
- Fipster's AI model predicted FSV Mainz 05 to win against Werder Bremen.
- What score did Fipster predict for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
- Fipster predicted a final score of FSV Mainz 05 3–1 Werder Bremen.
- What were the win probabilities for FSV Mainz 05 vs Werder Bremen?
- Fipster's model gave FSV Mainz 05 a 83% chance of winning, Werder Bremen a 8% chance, and a 9% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 83% confidence — a high-confidence call.