FSV Mainz 05 vs Union Berlin
Match recap
Union Berlin beat FSV Mainz 05 3–1 in their Bundesliga fixture. Becker scored for FSV Mainz 05; Ilić, Burke, and Juranović replied for Union Berlin. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.57 for FSV Mainz 05 versus 2.68 for Union Berlin. FSV Mainz 05 sit 10th in the Bundesliga table while Union Berlin are 11th.
Analysis
FSV Mainz 05 host Union Berlin in what promises to be a closely contested Bundesliga clash. With both teams eager to climb the table, this match could hinge on tactical nuances and key player performances.
Mainz currently sit 10th with 37 points, just a whisker ahead of Union Berlin in 12th with 36 points. Historically, Union have had the upper hand in head-to-heads, but Mainz's home advantage and recent form could tilt the scales.
Phillip Tietz leads Mainz's attack with 7 goals this season, showing particular prowess away from home. Creative midfielders like Kaishu Sano and Paul Nebel provide the ammunition, exploiting Union's defensive vulnerabilities. Union's Andrej Ilić remains a threat, but Mainz's defensive duo, Dominik Kohr and Danny da Costa, offer stability. The predicted 2-1 scoreline reflects Mainz's slight edge, supported by a moderate card count expected to keep tempers in check.
Prediction
Our forecast sees Mainz edging out Union Berlin 2-1, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The confidence level stands at a modest 35%, acknowledging the competitive nature of this fixture but favouring Mainz's home advantage and attacking form.
Outcome probability
Key Insights
Mainz's midfield creativity vs Union's defense
Mainz's creative midfielders like Sano and Nebel can exploit Union's defensive vulnerabilities with key passes and set-piece threats.
Tietz's scoring form supports home win
Tietz's recent goal scoring and away form align with predicted 2 goals for Mainz, increasing home win likelihood.
Union Berlin's scoring streak but defensive frailties
Union has scored in last 5 games but concedes frequently, suggesting a high-scoring match favoring Mainz's attack.
Defensive leadership crucial for Mainz
Kohr and da Costa's defensive stability and leadership are key to containing Union's main striker Ilić.
No major injuries for either side
Both teams have full squads available, so tactical choices and form will be decisive rather than absences.
Key Takeaways
In summary, Mainz's blend of midfield creativity and clinical finishing should see them through to a narrow victory. Union Berlin will pose challenges, but the home side's tactical strengths and key player contributions are likely to prevail.
- FSV Mainz 05 are 10th in the league with 37 points from 33 games (W9 D10 L14).
- Union Berlin are 12th with 36 points from 33 games (W9 D9 L15).
- In 14 head-to-head meetings, Union Berlin have won 8, Mainz 1, with 5 draws.
- Phillip Tietz has scored 7 goals this season, including strong away performances.
- Kaishu Sano leads Mainz midfield creativity with 6 assists and high key passes.
- Union Berlin's Andrej Ilić is their main striker with consistent goal involvement.
- The predicted total cards count is 4, indicating a moderately disciplined match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — FSV Mainz 05
Away — Union Berlin
No standout top scorers flagged for Union Berlin
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Caci
Yellow Card
da Costa
Ilić
Assist: Kemlein
Becker
Assist: Nebel
Burcu
Goal cancelled
Ansah
Rothe
Nebel
Caci
Lee Jae-Sung
Yellow Card
Köhn
Yellow Card
Trimmel
Becker
Tietz
Burke
Burke
Assist: Ilić
Juranović
Assist: Skarke
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Bayern München | 34 | 28 | 5 | 1 | +86 | 89 |
| 9 |  FC Augsburg | 34 | 12 | 7 | 15 | -16 | 43 |
| 10 |  FSV Mainz 05 | 34 | 10 | 10 | 14 | -9 | 40 |
| 11 |  Union Berlin | 34 | 10 | 9 | 15 | -14 | 39 |
| 12 |  Borussia Mönchengladbach | 34 | 9 | 11 | 14 | -11 | 38 |
Match Statistics
FSV Mainz 05
3-5-2Starting XI
- 2Phillipp MweneM
- 4Stefan PoschD
- 6Kaishu SanoM
- 8Paul NebelM
- 10Nadiem AmiriM
- 19Anthony CaciM
- 20Phillip TietzF
- 21Danny Vieira da CostaD
- 23Sheraldo Rudi BeckerF
- 27Robin ZentnerG
- 31Dominik KohrD
Substitutes
- 7Lee Jae-SungM
- 11Armindo SiebF
- 15Lennard MaloneyM
- 22Nikolas Konrad VeratschnigD
- 24Sota KawasakiM
- 30Silvan Dominic WidmerD
- 33Daniel BatzG
- 44Nelson Felix Patrick WeiperF
- 48Kacper PotulskiD
Union Berlin
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 4Diogo LeiteD
- 5Danilho Raimundo DoekhiD
- 6Aljoscha KemleinM
- 7Oliver Jasen BurkeM
- 8Rani KhediraM
- 9Livan BurcuM
- 10Ilyas AnsahM
- 15Tom Alexander RotheD
- 23Andrej IlićF
- 25Carl Friedrich Georg KlausG
- 28Christopher TrimmelD
Substitutes
- 11Jeong Woo-YeongM
- 13András SchäferM
- 14Leopold QuerfeldD
- 18Josip JuranovićD
- 21Tim SkarkeM
- 33Alex KrálM
- 34Stanley Pierre NsokiD
- 39Derrick Arthur KöhnD
- 48Tom WisbereitG
FSV Mainz 05
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Sheraldo Becker | F | 81 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Nadiem Amiri(C) | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 6 | 1/3 |
| Phillipp Mwene | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaishu Sano | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Anthony Caci | M | 70 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Robin Zentner | G | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Phillip Tietz | F | 81 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| Paul Nebel | M | 70 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 0/2 |
| Danny da Costa | D | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stefan Posch | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | — | — |
| Dominik Kohr | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Lennard Maloney | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Silvan Widmer | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Daniel Batz | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Sota Kawasaki | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Armindo Sieb | F | 9 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nelson Weiper | F | 9 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jae-sung Lee | M | 20 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nikolas Veratschnig | D | 20 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kacper Potulski | D | 74 | 5.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
Union Berlin
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Christopher Trimmel(C) | D | 81 | 8.9 | — | — | — | — | 5 | — |
| Oliver Burke | M | 88 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Aljoscha Kemlein | M | 90 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | 1/1 |
| Andrej Ilić | F | 90 | 7.2 | 1 | 1 | 4 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Danilho Doekhi | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Ilyas Ansah | M | 60 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Diogo Leite | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Carl Klaus | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tom Alexander Rothe | D | 60 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| Livan Burcu | M | 59 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/2 |
| Rani Khedira | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Tom Wisbereit | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Stanley Nsoki | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alex Král | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tim Skarke | M | 2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Leopold Querfeld | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Josip Juranović | D | 9 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Derrick Köhn | D | 30 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| András Schäfer | M | 30 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Woo-Yeong Jeong | M | 31 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |