France vs Italy
France and Italy share spoils in tight draw
Olise and Bastoni trade blows as neither side claims victory
In a closely contested UEFA Nations League clash, France and Italy settled for a 1-1 draw. M. Olise put France ahead shortly after the break, only for A. Bastoni to level the score for Italy midway through the second half. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a narrow French win, leaving both teams to rue missed opportunities.
Outcome probability
France and Italy face off in a League A encounter that promises a tactical battle. Both sides have shown attacking prowess and defensive resilience, setting the stage for a tight contest.
Match factors
Mbappé's clinical finishing vs Italy's defense
Mbappé's 1 goal in 1 game and 0.5 goals/game last 5 matches highlight his sharpness against strong defenses.
Olise's creative influence in France attack
Olise leads France with 1 assist in 1 game and key passes linking to Mbappé's goals.
France's unbeaten streak with clean sheets
France has won last 2 matches with clean sheets, showing defensive and attacking balance.
Koundé and Upamecano's defensive solidity
Both defenders exceed league averages in tackles and interceptions, key to limiting Italy's attack.
Barella's midfield control for Italy
Barella's passing accuracy (92%) and defensive work rate provide Italy stability and transition capability.
The context
In this competition, France have won both their matches so far, scoring twice without conceding. Italy have a mixed record with one win and one loss, netting four goals but conceding three. The two nations have met four times previously, splitting wins evenly with no draws, and an average of 3.5 goals per game.
Key insights
Kylian Mbappé
France
Mbappé's clinical finishing and recent goal form make him France's key attacking threat in this match.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 goal in 1 appearance, 0.5 goals/game last 5
M. Olise
France
Olise's creative influence and assist rate provide crucial support to France's attack, especially linking with Mbappé.
UEFA Nations League 26/271 assist in 1 appearance, 0.5 assists/game last 5
- J
J. Koundé
France
Koundé's defensive solidity with high tackle and duel win rates is vital to France's clean sheet record.
UEFA Nations League 26/275 tackles and 1 interception in last game, 63.6% duel win rate
- N
N. Barella
Italy
Barella's midfield control and passing accuracy help Italy maintain stability and launch attacks.
UEFA Nations League 26/2767 passes at 92% accuracy, 2 tackles and 1 interception
Analysis
France's recent form in this competition is impressive, boasting two clean sheets and a balanced attack led by Kylian Mbappé, who has scored in his last two away fixtures. Midfielder M. Olise has been instrumental in creating chances, linking well with Mbappé. Defensively, J. Koundé and D. Upamecano provide solidity with above-average tackling and interception stats. Italy's midfield engine, N. Barella, offers stability and transition play, while M. Kayode poses a threat on set pieces. The first half is expected to be cagey, with a 0-0 halftime scoreline likely before France edges ahead in the second half.
Key facts
- 1.France have won both matches in this competition, scoring 2 and conceding none.
- 2.Italy have 1 win and 1 loss, scoring 4 and conceding 3 in this competition.
- 3.France and Italy have met 4 times with 2 wins each and no draws, averaging 3.5 goals per match.
- 4.France ranks 2nd with 3 points; Italy ranks 4th with 0 points in League A - 3.
- 5.Kylian Mbappé has scored 1 goal in 1 appearance in this competition, with a strong recent scoring rate.
- 6.M. Olise leads France with 1 assist in 1 game, providing key creative support.
- 7.Defenders J. Koundé and D. Upamecano have high tackle and interception stats, bolstering France's defence.
- 8.N. Barella controls Italy's midfield with 92% passing accuracy and solid defensive work.
Prediction
The prediction favours a narrow home win for France by 2-1. Despite the close probabilities for all outcomes, France's defensive discipline and attacking efficiency, particularly through Mbappé and Olise, should be enough to secure the victory.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — France
Away — Italy
No standout top scorers flagged for Italy
The verdict
This match is set to be a classic tussle between two evenly matched sides. Expect a tight first half followed by a decisive second-half showing from France to clinch the points.
Prediction generated 28 Sep 2026, 20:44 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Fagioli
Yellow Card
Olise
Assist: Cherki
Esposito
Tonali
Bastoni
Kean
Yellow Card
Upamecano
Yellow Card
Doué
Cherki
Frattesi
Esposito
Vergara
Yellow Card
Upamecano
Red Card
da Cunha
Bastoni
Yellow Card
Fagioli
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Switzerland | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +3 | 3 |
| 2 |  Albania | 1 | 1 | 0 | 0 | +2 | 3 |
| 3 |  Belarus | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
| 4 |  Italy | 1 | 0 | 0 | 1 | -2 | 0 |
Match Statistics
France
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2P. KaluluD
- 3A. TruffertD
- 4D. UpamecanoD
- 7O. DembéléF
- 9R. CherkiM
- 11M. OliseF
- 14A. RabiotM
- 16M. MaignanG
- 20D. DouéF
- 21L. da CunhaM
- 22J. JacquetD
Substitutes
- 1G. RestesG
- 5J. KoundéD
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 8M. KonéM
- 12B. BarcolaF
- 13A. DioufM
- 15L. YoroD
- 17M. LacroixD
- 18M. AklioucheM
- 19E. LepaulF
- 23J. ButezG
Italy
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1G. DonnarummaG
- 2M. KayodeD
- 5R. CalafioriD
- 6A. BastoniD
- 7F. EspositoF
- 8S. TonaliM
- 9M. KeanF
- 10N. FagioliM
- 16D. FrattesiM
- 19G. ScalviniD
- 20S. EspositoF
Substitutes
- 3M. RuggeriD
- 4S. RicciM
- 11G. ScamaccaF
- 12M. CarnesecchiG
- 13G. VicarioG
- 14M. ZomaF
- 15I. DoumbiaM
- 17D. MaldiniF
- 18N. BarellaM
- 21A. VergaraM
- 22G. Di LorenzoD
- 23G. ManciniD
France
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Olise | F | 90 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 2 | 2 | 3/5 |
| R. Cherki | M | 76 | 7.7 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| L. da Cunha | M | 87 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 4 | 1/2 |
| J. Jacquet | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| A. Truffert | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 3/3 |
| D. Doué | F | 76 | 7.0 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 4/6 |
| A. Rabiot | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| E. Camavinga | M | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 1/1 |
| M. Maignan | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| P. Kalulu | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| B. Barcola | F | 14 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| O. Dembélé | F | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 6 | 2 | 3 | 2/4 |
| M. Lacroix | D | 3 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Upamecano | D | 85 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Akliouche | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Diouf | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| E. Lepaul | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Koné | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Butez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Koundé | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Restes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Yoro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Italy
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| A. Bastoni | D | 90 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| G. Donnarumma | G | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kayode | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 3/5 |
| R. Calafiori | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| G. Scalvini | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Maldini | F | 10 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| S. Tonali | M | 62 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Fagioli | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/1 |
| D. Frattesi | M | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 3/6 |
| S. Esposito | F | 80 | 6.5 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/3 |
| F. Esposito | F | 62 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| N. Barella | M | 28 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| I. Doumbia | M | 10 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Kean | F | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| A. Vergara | M | 28 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
| G. Scamacca | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Di Lorenzo | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Ricci | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Vicario | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Ruggeri | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Mancini | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Zoma | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Carnesecchi | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win France vs Italy?
- Fipster's AI model predicted France to win against Italy.
- What score did Fipster predict for France vs Italy?
- Fipster predicted a final score of France 2–1 Italy.
- What were the win probabilities for France vs Italy?
- Fipster's model gave France a 44% chance of winning, Italy a 28% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 44% confidence — a low-confidence call.