Belgium vs France
Olise's late strike stuns Belgium
France snatch a narrow win with a decisive goal in the 88th minute.
In a tight UEFA Nations League clash, France edged Belgium 1-0 thanks to M. Olise's late goal. The match was a cagey affair until Olise broke the deadlock just before the final whistle. This result defied Fipster's low-confidence prediction of a Belgium win, proving the visitors had the last word.
Outcome probability
The upcoming League A clash between Belgium and France promises a tactical battle with both sides showing solid form. Expect a cautious start as both teams look to gain the upper hand.
Match factors
Belgium's strong recent away form
Belgium won their last away match 2-0 with a clean sheet and goals from Godts and Lukebakio, showing good momentum
France's solid away performance
France won their last away match 1-0 with Mbappé scoring the decisive goal, maintaining clean sheet momentum
Belgium's creative midfield influence
De Bruyne and De Ketelaere showed strong creative output with assists and high ratings, key for breaking down France's defense
France's defensive solidity led by Koundé
Koundé's 6 tackles and high rating highlight his role in limiting opposition attacks, crucial against Belgium's offense
The context
Belgium and France have each won their opening matches in this competition, both securing 1-0 away victories. Despite France's perfect record in their five previous head-to-heads against Belgium, this fixture looks set to be a tight contest.
Key insights
- K
K. De Bruyne
Belgium
De Bruyne's creative influence with an assist and high involvement in attack is crucial for Belgium's chances.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Provided assist in last match with 7.7 rating; 3 shots and 32 passes in 58 minutes.
- C
C. De Ketelaere
Belgium
De Ketelaere's attacking activity and assist in the last match highlight his importance in breaking down France's defence.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Provided assist with 7.7 rating; 2 shots and 22 passes in 84 minutes.
- J
J. Koundé
France
Koundé's defensive solidity with 6 tackles and a high rating will be key to limiting Belgium's attacking threat.
UEFA Nations League 26/276 tackles and 7.58 rating in last match.
- K
Kylian Mbappé
France
Mbappé's goal-scoring and attacking impact make him France's main threat in this tight encounter.
UEFA Nations League 26/27Scored winning goal with 7.71 rating; 2 shots and 24 passes in 59 minutes.
Analysis
Belgium's midfield creativity, led by De Bruyne and De Ketelaere, will be key to breaking down France's defence. France, on the other hand, rely on Koundé's defensive solidity and Mbappé's attacking threat. The probabilities suggest a narrow home win, with a 0-0 halftime scoreline reflecting a tight first half.
Key facts
- 1.Belgium won their only match in this competition 1-0 away to Italy.
- 2.France won their only match in this competition 1-0 away to Türkiye.
- 3.France have won all 5 previous head-to-head matches against Belgium with no draws.
- 4.The predicted halftime score is 0-0, indicating a tight first half.
- 5.The predicted fulltime score is 1-0 in favour of Belgium.
- 6.The match is expected to feature around 4 cards in total.
Prediction
We predict Belgium to edge this one 1-0, with the decisive goal coming in the second half. The match is expected to be disciplined, with around four cards shown as both teams battle for control.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Belgium
Away — France
The verdict
This encounter should be a close-run affair, with Belgium just about getting the better of France. Fans can look forward to a tactical tussle and a slender winning margin for the home side.
Prediction generated 25 Sep 2026, 20:47 UTC · Fipster Model v1.162
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
FIFA world ranking
Diego Moreira
Yellow Card
De Bruyne
Yellow Card
Diego Moreira
De Bruyne
Tielemans
Yellow Card
Lepaul
Seys
Barcola
Akliouche
Lavia
De Ketelaere
Olise
Assist: Cherki
da Cunha
Match Statistics
Belgium
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1S. LammensG
- 4B. MecheleD
- 6R. LaviaM
- 7K. De BruyneM
- 8Y. TielemansM
- 10M. GodtsM
- 15N. NgoyD
- 17C. De KetelaereF
- 18J. SeysD
- 19Diego MoreiraM
- 21T. CastagneD
Substitutes
- 2Z. DebastD
- 3K. De WinterD
- 5M. De CuyperD
- 9R. LukakuF
- 11L. OpendaF
- 12M. VandevoordtG
- 13J. De BusserG
- 14D. LukebakioF
- 16M. KeitaM
- 20H. VanakenM
- 22M. Fernandez-PardoF
- 23N. RaskinM
France
4-3-3Starting XI
- 2P. KaluluD
- 6E. CamavingaM
- 12B. BarcolaF
- 13A. DioufD
- 16M. MaignanG
- 17M. LacroixD
- 18M. AklioucheM
- 19E. LepaulF
- 20D. DouéF
- 21L. da CunhaM
- 22J. JacquetD
Substitutes
- 1G. RestesG
- 3A. TruffertD
- 4D. UpamecanoD
- 5J. KoundéD
- 7O. DembéléF
- 8M. KonéM
- 9R. CherkiM
- 11M. OliseM
- 14A. RabiotM
- 15L. YoroD
- 23J. ButezG
Belgium
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| S. Lammens | G | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Lukebakio | F | 27 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 3/3 |
| B. Mechele | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Ngoy | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Lavia | M | 85 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| M. Godts | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | — | 3 | 2/3 |
| H. Vanaken | M | 27 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| T. Castagne | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| C. De Ketelaere | F | 85 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| M. De Cuyper | D | 22 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| M. Fernandez-Pardo | F | 5 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| N. Raskin | M | 5 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Tielemans | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| K. De Bruyne | M | 63 | 6.1 | — | — | 3 | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| J. Seys | D | 68 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Diego Moreira | M | 63 | 5.4 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/2 |
| Z. Debast | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Vandevoordt | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. De Winter | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Lukaku | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Openda | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| M. Keita | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. De Busser | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
France
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| M. Olise | M | 13 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| E. Camavinga | M | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| M. Maignan | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Doué | F | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 5 | 2 | 4 | 5/9 |
| M. Akliouche | M | 77 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 3 | 0/2 |
| M. Lacroix | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| P. Kalulu | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | — |
| L. da Cunha | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| J. Jacquet | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Diouf | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| R. Cherki | M | 13 | 6.5 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | — |
| O. Dembélé | F | 22 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| B. Barcola | F | 77 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| E. Lepaul | F | 68 | 6.3 | — | — | 4 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Koné | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Upamecano | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Rabiot | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Truffert | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Restes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Yoro | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Koundé | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Butez | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Belgium vs France?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Belgium to win against France.
- What score did Fipster predict for Belgium vs France?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Belgium 1–0 France.
- What were the win probabilities for Belgium vs France?
- Fipster's model gave Belgium a 35% chance of winning, France a 32% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 35% confidence — a low-confidence call.