Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior
Fortuna Sittard snatches last-gasp win
Rodrigo Guth's stoppage-time strike secures a narrow victory at home.
In a tight Eredivisie encounter, Fortuna Sittard edged out Excelsior 1-0 thanks to Rodrigo Guth's decisive goal in the first minute of stoppage time. The match was a cagey affair with few clear-cut chances until Guth broke the deadlock right at the end. This result defied Fipster's medium-confidence prediction of an away win, proving that sometimes the underdog has the final say.
Outcome probability
Fortuna Sittard and Excelsior face off in what promises to be an entertaining clash, with both sides showing decent form this season. Expect goals and a lively contest as these two teams look to climb the league table.
Match factors
Excelsior's attacking trio in form
Sliti, Garden, and Yegoian combine strong scoring and assisting form, likely to challenge Fortuna's defense effectively.
Yegoian's dual threat
Irakli Yegoian leads Excelsior with 5 assists and 3 goals, providing both scoring and creative edge.
Descotte's recent scoring surge
Anthony Descotte has scored multiple goals recently for Fortuna, showing strong individual form despite team struggles.
Fortuna missing key defenders
Fortuna's confirmed absences in defense weaken their backline, increasing vulnerability to Excelsior's attackers.
Jan Plug's defensive dominance
Plug's high tackle and interception rates provide Excelsior defensive stability, crucial against Fortuna's attack.
The context
Fortuna Sittard currently sit 6th with 14 points from 8 games, while Excelsior are 10th with 11 points from 9 matches. Historically, their encounters have been goal-rich affairs, averaging 3.3 goals per game across eight meetings, with Fortuna holding a slight edge in wins.
Key insights
Irakli Yegoian
Excelsior
Leads Excelsior with 5 assists and 3 goals, providing both scoring and creative edge.
Eredivisie 26/275 assists and 3 goals in 9 appearances
Aymen Sliti
Excelsior
Consistent scorer with 3 goals in 9 games, good recent form with 2 goals in last 5 matches.
Eredivisie 26/273 goals in 9 appearances, 0.33 goals/game
- A
Anthony Descotte
Fortuna Sittard
Has scored multiple goals recently, showing strong individual form despite team struggles.
Eredivisie 26/27Multiple recent goals in current season
- J
Jan Plug
Excelsior
Leads team in tackles and interceptions, providing defensive stability crucial against Fortuna's attack.
Eredivisie 26/2721 tackles and 14 interceptions in 9 games
Analysis
Excelsior's attacking trio of Aymen Sliti, David Garden, and Irakli Yegoian are in fine form, combining goals and assists to pose a significant threat. Yegoian, in particular, stands out with 5 assists and 3 goals this season, providing both creativity and finishing prowess. Fortuna's recent defensive absences could tip the balance, despite Anthony Descotte's recent scoring surge. Jan Plug's defensive work for Excelsior adds stability, making this a finely balanced contest with an edge to the visitors.
Key facts
- 1.Fortuna Sittard lead head-to-head with 4 wins in 8 matches against Excelsior.
- 2.Their encounters average 3.3 goals per match, indicating attacking openness.
- 3.Fortuna Sittard rank 6th with 14 points from 8 games; Excelsior are 10th with 11 points from 9 games.
- 4.Fortuna have a higher points-per-game (1.75) compared to Excelsior (1.22).
- 5.Excelsior's Irakli Yegoian leads with 5 assists and 3 goals this season.
- 6.Fortuna's Anthony Descotte has been in good recent scoring form.
- 7.Excelsior's Jan Plug is a defensive standout with high tackle and interception rates.
- 8.The predicted halftime score is 1-1, suggesting a balanced start.
Prediction
We anticipate a competitive first half ending 1-1, with both teams finding the net. However, Excelsior are expected to pull ahead in the second half, securing a 3-2 win thanks to their attacking depth and tactical advantages.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Fortuna Sittard
No standout top scorers flagged for Fortuna Sittard
Away — Excelsior
The verdict
This match promises excitement and goals, with Excelsior's attacking flair likely to outshine Fortuna's home advantage. Fans should brace for a close encounter that could go down to the wire, but the visitors look set to take the spoils.
Prediction generated 18 Oct 2026, 19:55 UTC · Fipster Model v1.165
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Simons
Yellow Card
Naujoks
Simons
Groen
Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand
Yellow Card
de Groot
Peterson
Yegoian
Yellow Card
Bos
Sliti
Brittijn
Michut
Guth
Assist: Ihattaren
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Feyenoord | 10 | 7 | 3 | 0 | +21 | 24 |
| 4 |  PSV Eindhoven | 10 | 6 | 2 | 2 | +15 | 20 |
| 5 |  Fortuna Sittard | 10 | 5 | 3 | 2 | 0 | 18 |
| 6 |  Twente | 9 | 5 | 2 | 2 | +7 | 17 |
| 12 |  NEC Nijmegen | 10 | 2 | 5 | 3 | -1 | 11 |
| 13 |  Excelsior | 10 | 3 | 2 | 5 | -3 | 11 |
| 14 |  Sparta Rotterdam | 10 | 2 | 3 | 5 | -7 | 9 |
Match Statistics
Fortuna Sittard
4-3-3Starting XI
- 3Rodrigo GuthD
- 6S. van OtteleM
- 7K. PetersonF
- 12Ivo PintoD
- 14S. SimonsF
- 15N. de GrootD
- 20É. MichutM
- 22Shiloh Kiesar ’t ZandF
- 23P. BrittijnM
- 28Justin Quincy HubnerD
- 31M. BranderhorstG
Substitutes
- 1L. KoopmansG
- 2S. WylinD
- 4Iván MárquezD
- 5Y. OukiliM
- 8J. DahlhausD
- 10O. RomenyF
- 24D. SinkgravenD
- 33K. ReitmaierG
- 39Ganni BuyukhanM
- 52M. IhattarenM
Excelsior
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1S. van GasselG
- 3R. MeissenD
- 4C. WidellD
- 6D. van VianenM
- 7A. SlitiF
- 8I. YegoianF
- 10N. NaujoksM
- 12K. BosD
- 14J. PlugD
- 20L. HartjesM
- 28N. GroenF
Substitutes
- 2Eric Emanuel da Silva MoreiraF
- 9Mario DomínguezF
- 11A. JahanbakhshF
- 15S. JanssenD
- 16Celton BiaiG
- 18V. SulzbacherM
- 19D. GardenF
- 21I. Silva TimasF
- 24Giulliano CairoM
- 30Á. ÞorsteinssonM
Fortuna Sittard
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Justin Quincy Hubner | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| M. Ihattaren | M | 8 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| É. Michut | M | 86 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| M. Branderhorst | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. van Ottele | M | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Rodrigo Guth | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| D. Sinkgraven | D | 24 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| O. Romeny | F | 44 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Iván Márquez | D | 4 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ivo Pinto | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Shiloh Kiesar ’t Zand | F | 90 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| P. Brittijn | M | 82 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/2 |
| J. Dahlhaus | D | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Peterson | F | 66 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| S. Simons | F | 46 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. de Groot | D | 66 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| K. Reitmaier | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| S. Wylin | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| L. Koopmans | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ganni Buyukhan | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Oukili | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Excelsior
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| C. Widell | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| S. van Gassel | G | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| J. Plug | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Meissen | D | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| L. Hartjes | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| D. van Vianen | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| K. Bos | D | 76 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| N. Naujoks | M | 46 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/2 |
| A. Sliti | F | 76 | 6.4 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| N. Groen | F | 56 | 6.4 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| S. Janssen | D | 14 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Jahanbakhsh | F | 14 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Á. Þorsteinsson | M | 44 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| D. Garden | F | 34 | 6.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| I. Yegoian | F | 90 | 6.0 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | — |
| I. Silva Timas | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mario Domínguez | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| V. Sulzbacher | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Celton Biai | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Giulliano Cairo | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Eric Emanuel da Silva Moreira | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Excelsior to win against Fortuna Sittard.
- What score did Fipster predict for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Fortuna Sittard 2–3 Excelsior.
- What were the win probabilities for Fortuna Sittard vs Excelsior?
- Fipster's model gave Fortuna Sittard a 21% chance of winning, Excelsior a 58% chance, and a 21% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 58% confidence — a medium-confidence call.