Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama
Fluminense edge Vasco with Acosta strike
A solitary goal after the break secures a narrow home victory.
Fluminense managed to break the deadlock with L. Acosta's 61st-minute goal, holding on to claim a 1-0 win over Vasco DA Gama in Serie A. Despite Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a more comfortable 3-0 scoreline, the actual result was a tighter affair, though the forecast of a home win was spot on.
Outcome probability
Fluminense and Vasco DA Gama face off in a regular season clash where the home side looks set to assert their superiority early on. With Fluminense's attacking prowess and Vasco's defensive vulnerabilities, this match promises a clear outcome.
Match factors
Fluminense missing key scorer John Kennedy
John Kennedy, with 9 goals this season, is out injured, reducing Fluminense's attacking options
Fluminense's strong home scoring form
Fluminense averages 1.8 goals per home game, above league average, supporting predicted 3-0 win
Fluminense's creative midfielders dominate assists
Acosta and Canobbio provide high assist rates, likely to unlock Vasco's defense
Vasco DA Gama struggles defensively on the road
Vasco concedes 1.91 goals per away game, vulnerable to Fluminense's attack
Vasco's top scorer Andrés Gómez may struggle against Fluminense defense
Gómez has 4 goals but Vasco's overall low scoring and Fluminense's defensive strength limit impact
The context
This fixture is part of the 2026 regular season, round 26. Fluminense currently enjoy a significantly better league standing and goal difference than Vasco DA Gama, who have struggled defensively on the road. Historically, Fluminense have the edge in head-to-head meetings, having won 9 of the last 20 encounters.
Key insights
Agustín Canobbio
Fluminense
Canobbio has been a standout performer with 4 goals and 3 assists this season, playing a key role in Fluminense's attack.
Serie A 26/274 goals and 3 assists in 18 appearances, 0.22 goals/game, 0.17 assists/game
Luciano Acosta
Fluminense
Acosta leads the team with 4 assists, providing creative spark and key passes to unlock defences.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 19 appearances, 0.21 assists/game
- C
Carlos Gómez Hinestroza
Vasco DA Gama
Top scorer for Vasco with 4 goals, but faces a tough challenge against Fluminense's strong defence.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 20 appearances, 0.20 goals/game
Analysis
Fluminense's home form is impressive, averaging 1.8 goals per game, and their midfield creativity, led by Luciano Acosta and Agustín Canobbio, is likely to unlock Vasco's defence. Vasco's top scorer, Carlos Gómez Hinestroza, has been decent but faces a tough challenge against a solid Fluminense backline. The predicted halftime score of 2-0 suggests early dominance, with a final 3-0 scoreline reflecting sustained control. Discipline is expected to be moderate, with around four cards anticipated.
Key facts
- 1.Fluminense have a significantly better league standing and goal difference than Vasco DA Gama this season.
- 2.Fluminense average 1.8 goals per home game, above the league average.
- 3.Vasco DA Gama concede 1.91 goals per away game, highlighting defensive struggles.
- 4.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Fluminense have won 9, Vasco DA Gama 5, with 6 draws.
- 5.Fluminense's midfielders Luciano Acosta and Agustín Canobbio lead in assists and goal involvement.
- 6.Halftime score prediction is 2-0, consistent with a dominant home performance.
- 7.Total cards predicted are 4, indicating moderate discipline events.
Prediction
Expect Fluminense to take the lead early and maintain pressure, resulting in a 3-0 victory. Agustín Canobbio, with his strong goal and assist record, alongside Acosta's creative influence, will be key contributors. Vasco DA Gama's defensive frailties away from home make it unlikely they will keep a clean sheet or mount a significant comeback.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Fluminense
Away — Vasco DA Gama
The verdict
In summary, Fluminense's superior form, home advantage, and attacking midfield strength set the stage for a comfortable win. Vasco DA Gama will need to tighten up defensively and find more attacking spark to challenge in future encounters.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Gómez
Yellow Card
Fuzato
Yellow Card
Freytes
Yellow Card
Paulo Henrique
Yellow Card
Ignacio
Yellow Card
Soteldo
Yellow Card
Hulk
Yellow Card
Colidio
Yellow Card
PH Ganso
Duarte
Acosta
Assist: Soteldo
Paulo Henrique
Tchê Tchê
Soteldo
Cuesta
Adson
Hulk
Guga
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Flamengo | 28 | 18 | 6 | 4 | +32 | 60 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 28 | 14 | 7 | 7 | +11 | 49 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 28 | 13 | 9 | 6 | +8 | 48 |
| 5 |  Bahia | 28 | 12 | 10 | 6 | +8 | 46 |
| 15 |  Mirassol | 28 | 8 | 8 | 12 | -9 | 32 |
| 16 |  Vasco DA Gama | 27 | 8 | 7 | 12 | -7 | 31 |
| 17 |  Gremio | 28 | 7 | 8 | 13 | -8 | 29 |
Match Statistics
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 4IgnacioD
- 6RenêD
- 7HulkF
- 8MartinelliM
- 10PH GansoM
- 16NonatoM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 23GugaD
- 29J. MillánD
- 30Y. SoteldoM
Substitutes
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 14G. CanoF
- 19R. CastilloF
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 22J. FreytesD
- 28RiquelmeF
- 32L. AcostaM
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 90K. SernaF
- 94OtávioM
- 98Vitor EudesG
Vasco DA Gama
4-3-3Starting XI
- 1Léo JardimG
- 3Tchê TchêM
- 5S. SosaM
- 6Lucas PitonD
- 9F. ColidioF
- 11A. GómezF
- 19Bruno DuarteF
- 23Thiago MendesM
- 30Robert RenanD
- 46C. CuestaD
- 96Paulo HenriqueD
Substitutes
- 2J. RodríguezD
- 7DavidF
- 10J. RojasF
- 13Daniel FuzatoG
- 17Nuno MoreiraM
- 18M. HinestrozaF
- 28AdsonF
- 43Lucas FreitasD
- 77C. SpinelliF
- 82AvellarD
- 83Ramon RiqueM
- 88Cauan BarrosM
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| L. Acosta | M | 32 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | 1 | — |
| J. Millán | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Y. Soteldo | M | 74 | 7.3 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| PH Ganso | M | 58 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/2 |
| Martinelli | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Guga | D | 85 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Renê | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Julio Fidelis | D | 5 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 5 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nonato | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| A. Canobbio | M | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Fábio | G | 90 | 6.8 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignacio | D | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| K. Serna | F | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 1/3 |
| Hulk | F | 85 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | — |
| J. Savarino | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Riquelme | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| R. Castillo | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Freytes | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| G. Cano | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Vasco DA Gama
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Lucas Piton | D | 90 | 7.4 | — | — | 3 | 1 | — | 2/2 |
| Thiago Mendes | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/2 |
| S. Sosa | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Robert Renan | D | 90 | 7.1 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Cuesta | D | 84 | 6.8 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Tchê Tchê | M | 74 | 6.7 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| J. Rodríguez | D | 16 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Jardim | G | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| F. Colidio | F | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | 2 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| M. Hinestroza | F | 6 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Duarte | F | 60 | 6.4 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ramon Rique | M | 6 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Adson | F | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| C. Spinelli | F | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Paulo Henrique | D | 74 | 6.1 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 4/7 |
| A. Gómez | F | 90 | 5.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/9 |
| Daniel Fuzato | G | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| David | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nuno Moreira | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Freitas | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| J. Rojas | F | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cauan Barros | M | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Avellar | D | 0 | 0.0 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Fluminense to win against Vasco DA Gama.
- What score did Fipster predict for Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Fluminense 3–0 Vasco DA Gama.
- What were the win probabilities for Fluminense vs Vasco DA Gama?
- Fipster's model gave Fluminense a 85% chance of winning, Vasco DA Gama a 7% chance, and a 8% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 85% confidence — a high-confidence call.