Fluminense vs Palmeiras
Fluminense snatch dramatic win over Palmeiras
A late flurry of goals seals a 3-2 victory for Fluminense against the odds.
Palmeiras took an early lead through G. Gómez, but Fluminense fought back with Hulk's first-half equaliser. The match saw a tense finish as Maurício put Palmeiras ahead again, only for Fluminense to respond swiftly with goals from K. Serna and G. Cano deep into stoppage time. This thrilling turnaround defied Fipster's high-confidence prediction of a Palmeiras win, delivering a memorable upset in Serie A.
Outcome probability
This Brazilian Serie A fixture sees Palmeiras and Fluminense face off in what promises to be a tightly contested match. Palmeiras currently lead the league standings, while Fluminense sit comfortably in fourth, setting the stage for an intriguing battle of form and tactics.
Match factors
Fluminense's top scorer John Kennedy likely out
John Kennedy is confirmed out due to injury, removing a key goal threat from Fluminense's attack
Palmeiras' superior scoring and defensive record
Palmeiras averages 1.8 goals scored and 0.8 conceded per game, better than Fluminense's 1.4 scored and 1.2 conceded
Andreas Pereira's creative influence for Palmeiras
Pereira leads Palmeiras with 9 assists, providing key chances and linking well with top scorers
Palmeiras' strong away scoring streak
Palmeiras has scored in all last 5 away games, showing consistent attacking form on the road
Fluminense's reliance on Canobbio for goals
With John Kennedy doubtful, Canobbio's 4 goals and attacking role become crucial for Fluminense's scoring
The context
Palmeiras top the league with 47 points from 21 games, boasting a strong goal difference of +22. Fluminense, with 35 points from 22 games and a +5 goal difference, have been solid but less prolific. Historically, Palmeiras have the edge in their head-to-head meetings, winning half of their 20 encounters and scoring significantly more goals overall.
Key insights
- J
John Kennedy
Fluminense
Fluminense's top scorer is out with injury, removing a key goal threat.
Serie A 26/279 goals this season
Andreas Pereira
Palmeiras
Leads Palmeiras with 9 assists, providing key chances and creative influence.
Serie A 26/279 assists in 19 appearances
J. López
Palmeiras
Top scorer for Palmeiras with 6 goals, consistent attacking threat.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 18 appearances
A. Canobbio
Fluminense
Crucial goal scorer for Fluminense, especially with Kennedy out.
Serie A 26/274 goals in 14 appearances
Analysis
Palmeiras' attacking prowess is evident, with their top scorer J. López netting 6 goals this season and midfielder Andreas Pereira providing 9 assists, the highest in the league. Fluminense will miss their top scorer John Kennedy due to injury, placing more responsibility on A. Canobbio, who has scored 4 goals. Palmeiras have also been consistent on the road, scoring in their last five away matches, which bodes well for their chances here. The predicted halftime score of 0-2 suggests Palmeiras will take control early, with Fluminense likely to respond late but fall short.
Key facts
- 1.Palmeiras lead the league with 47 points from 21 games (W14 D5 L2).
- 2.Fluminense are fourth with 35 points from 22 games (W9 D8 L5).
- 3.Palmeiras have won 10 of 20 head-to-head matches against Fluminense.
- 4.Palmeiras have a superior goal difference (+22) compared to Fluminense (+5).
- 5.Palmeiras have scored in each of their last five away games.
- 6.John Kennedy, Fluminense's top scorer with 9 goals, is out injured.
- 7.Andreas Pereira leads Palmeiras with 9 assists this season.
- 8.Predicted halftime score is 0-2 in favour of Palmeiras.
Prediction
Expect Palmeiras to secure a 2-1 victory after establishing a two-goal lead by halftime. Fluminense will manage to pull one back but won't find an equaliser. The match should see around four cards, reflecting a competitive but fair contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Fluminense
Away — Palmeiras
The verdict
Palmeiras' superior form, combined with Fluminense's injury woes and reliance on Canobbio, points to an away win. While Fluminense will fight hard, Palmeiras' early dominance and creative midfield play should see them through to a narrow victory.
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Gómez
Assist: Piquerez
Piquerez
Yellow Card
Hulk
Assist: Canobbio
Piquerez
Vitor Roque
Rabello
Guga
Yellow Card
Canobbio
Yellow Card
Hulk
PH Ganso
Arthur
Yellow Card
Arias
Andreas Pereira
Hércules
Soteldo
Acosta
Yellow Card
Sosa
Maurício
Assist: López
Serna
Cano
Assist: Martinelli
Gómez
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 24 | 15 | 6 | 3 | +24 | 51 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 23 | 13 | 6 | 4 | +24 | 45 |
| 3 |  Atletico Paranaense | 23 | 12 | 5 | 6 | +11 | 41 |
| 4 |  Fluminense | 24 | 11 | 8 | 5 | +7 | 41 |
| 5 |  Cruzeiro | 24 | 11 | 6 | 7 | +1 | 39 |
Match Statistics
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 6RenêD
- 7HulkF
- 8MartinelliM
- 10PH GansoM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 23GugaD
- 30Y. SoteldoM
- 35HérculesM
- 44JemmesD
Substitutes
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 3Thiago SilvaD
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 14G. CanoF
- 16NonatoM
- 19R. CastilloF
- 29J. MillánD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 46Julio FidelisD
- 90K. SernaF
- 94OtávioM
- 98Vitor EudesG
Palmeiras
4-4-2Starting XI
- 1Carlos MiguelG
- 4A. GiayD
- 8Andreas PereiraM
- 9Vitor RoqueF
- 11J. AriasM
- 15G. GómezD
- 17Marlon FreitasM
- 22J. PiquerezD
- 26MuriloD
- 40AllanM
- 42J. LópezF
Substitutes
- 3Bruno FuchsD
- 7Felipe AndersonM
- 14Marcelo LombaG
- 18MaurícioM
- 19R. SosaF
- 21KaiqueG
- 30Lucas EvangelistaM
- 32E. MartínezM
- 39HeittorF
- 43BenedettiD
- 50Luis FelipeM
- 56ArthurD
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Hulk | F | 69 | 7.7 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/2 |
| Guga | D | 95 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | 5 | 2/2 |
| Ganso(C) | M | 69 | 7.5 | — | — | 1 | — | 3 | 2/2 |
| Igor Rabello | D | 54 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Agustín Canobbio | M | 95 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 3 | 1 | 2 | 0/2 |
| Fábio | G | 95 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jemmes | D | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Hércules | M | 79 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Martinelli | M | 95 | 6.6 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Yeferson Soteldo | M | 79 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | 1/3 |
| Renê | D | 95 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Júlio Fidelis | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Thiago Silva | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefferson Savarino | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | F | 16 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| Germán Cano | F | 26 | 6.6 | 1 | — | 3 | 1 | — | — |
| Nonato | M | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julián Millán | D | 41 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luciano Acosta | M | 26 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/3 |
Palmeiras
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| José Manuel López | F | 95 | 7.3 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 3 | 3/5 |
| Gustavo Gómez(C) | D | 95 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Andreas Pereira | M | 73 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 4 | — |
| Carlos Miguel | G | 95 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 1 | 5/8 |
| Marlon Freitas | M | 95 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Murilo | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Agustín Giay | D | 95 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Joaquín Piquerez | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | 1 | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Jhon Arias | M | 73 | 6.0 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 0/5 |
| Vitor Roque | F | 45 | 5.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Luis Pacheco | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Heittor | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kaique | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luis Benedetti | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Marcelo Lomba | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Fuchs | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lucas Evangelista | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Mauricio | M | 22 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Ramón Sosa | F | 35 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Arthur Gabriel | D | 50 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Felipe Anderson | M | 15 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Emiliano Martínez | M | 22 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |