Fluminense vs Gremio
Match recap
Fluminense beat Gremio 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Nonato and Acosta scored for Fluminense; Carlos Vinícius replied for Gremio. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 2.25 for Fluminense versus 1.58 for Gremio. Fluminense sit 5th in the Serie A table while Gremio are 18th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Fluminense win
Actual
2–1
Outcome probability
As the new season kicks off, Fluminense look poised to make a strong statement against Gremio. With a blend of solid home form and key attacking players in fine fettle, the stage is set for a dominant display.
Match factors
Fluminense missing key striker John Kennedy
John Kennedy, top scorer with 9 goals, is out injured, reducing Fluminense's attacking options
Fluminense's superior recent home scoring form
Fluminense averages 1.87 goals per home game, higher than Gremio's 0.6 away scoring, supporting predicted home win
J. Savarino's recent scoring surge
Savarino scored 3 goals in last 5 games at home, indicating strong form for this fixture
Gremio's reliance on Carlos Vinícius for goals
Vinícius is Gremio's main scorer with 10 goals but has no goals in last 5 games, limiting threat
The context
This fixture marks the first round of the regular season in league 71. Fluminense currently sit comfortably in third place with a healthy points tally and goal difference, while Gremio find themselves struggling near the bottom of the table. The gulf in league positions and recent form sets the tone for this encounter.
Key insights
J. Savarino
Fluminense
Top scorer with 6 goals this season, including 3 in the last 5 home games, making him a key attacking threat.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 21 appearances, 3 goals last 5 games
L. Acosta
Fluminense
Leading assister with 5 assists, involved in set-pieces and key passes, boosting Fluminense's creative play.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 24 appearances, 1 assist last 5 games
- C
Carlos Vinícius
Gremio
Main goal threat with 10 goals this season but currently in a dry spell with no goals in last 5 games, limiting Gremio's offensive options.
Serie A 26/2710 goals in current season, 0 goals last 5 games
Analysis
Fluminense's home scoring average of 1.87 goals per game dwarfs Gremio's modest 0.6 away goals per game, highlighting a clear offensive advantage. J. Savarino, the home side's top scorer with six goals this season and three in his last five home games, is expected to spearhead the attack. Meanwhile, Gremio's reliance on Carlos Vinícius, who has yet to find the net in his last five outings despite ten goals this season, may limit their threat. Fluminense's midfield creativity, led by L. Acosta with five assists, further bolsters their chances of a comprehensive win.
Key facts
- 1.Fluminense rank 3rd in the league with 51 points from 29 games.
- 2.Gremio are 18th with 30 points from 29 games.
- 3.Fluminense have a superior goal difference of +20 compared to Gremio.
- 4.Fluminense average 1.76 points per game, Gremio 1.03.
- 5.J. Savarino has scored 6 goals this season, including 3 in the last 5 home games.
- 6.Carlos Vinícius is Gremio's top scorer with 10 goals but has no goals in the last 5 games.
- 7.L. Acosta leads Fluminense with 5 assists this season.
Prediction
The prediction is a confident home win for Fluminense, with a commanding 4-0 scoreline. The halftime score is expected to be 2-0, consistent with the fulltime outcome. The match is also anticipated to feature around four cards, reflecting a competitive but controlled contest.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Fluminense
Away — Gremio
No standout top scorers flagged for Gremio
The verdict
All signs point to Fluminense asserting their dominance early in the season with a comprehensive victory over Gremio. Their superior form, attacking firepower, and home advantage make them the clear favourites to start the campaign with maximum points.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:14 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Nonato
Yellow Card
Dodi
Yellow Card
João Pedro
Nonato
Acosta
Assist: Renê
Amuzu
Dodi
Tetê
Carlos Vinícius
Assist: Martins
Nonato
Acosta
Serna
Carlos Vinícius
Canobbio
John Kennedy
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
| 19 |  Remo | 32 | 5 | 11 | 16 | -16 | 26 |
Match Statistics
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 3JemmesD
- 6RenêD
- 8MartinelliM
- 16NonatoM
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 22J. FreytesD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 90K. SernaM
- 99John KennedyF
Substitutes
- 4IgnacioD
- 5F. BernalM
- 9EveraldoF
- 10PH GansoM
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 23GugaD
- 30S. MorenoF
- 45LimaM
- 94OtávioM
- 98Vitor EudesG
Gremio
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1WevertonG
- 3Wagner LeonardoD
- 8EdenílsonM
- 9F. AmuzuM
- 17DodiM
- 18João PedroD
- 21TetêM
- 23MarlonD
- 29ArthurM
- 53Gustavo MartinsD
- 95Carlos ViníciusF
Substitutes
- 7C. PavónF
- 10F. CristaldoM
- 12Gabriel GrandoG
- 14Marcos RochaD
- 16A. AravenaF
- 19E. NoriegaM
- 38Caio PaulistaD
- 39TiagoM
- 44VieryD
- 77André HenriqueF
- 88WillianM
- 99J. EnamoradoF
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luciano Acosta | M | 78 | 7.9 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Juan Freytes | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Nonato | M | 78 | 7.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Renê | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2 | — |
| Matheus Martinelli | M | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 0/1 |
| John Kennedy | F | 89 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Jemmes | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kevin Serna | M | 79 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 1/1 |
| Fábio | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustín Canobbio | M | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/9 |
| Samuel Xavier(C) | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignácio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Lima | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Everaldo | F | 8 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Jefferson Savarino | F | 11 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Facundo Bernal | M | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ganso | M | 12 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Moreno | F | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
Gremio
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Carlos Vinícius | F | 86 | 7.6 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Marlon | D | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Weverton | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur(C) | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wagner Leonardo | D | 90 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Dodi | M | 61 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Tetê | M | 74 | 6.3 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 3/3 |
| Edenilson | M | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 1/2 |
| Gustavo Martins | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 3 | — |
| Francis Amuzu | M | 60 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Franco Cristaldo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Caio Paulista | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Erick Noriega | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alexander Aravena | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Grando | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Viery | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Tiaguinho | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Cristian Pavón | F | 30 | 7.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 5/7 |
| Willian | M | 29 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| André Henrique | F | 12 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| José Enamorado | F | 16 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/2 |
| Marcos Rocha | D | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Fluminense vs Gremio?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Fluminense to win against Gremio.
- What score did Fipster predict for Fluminense vs Gremio?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Fluminense 4–0 Gremio.
- What were the win probabilities for Fluminense vs Gremio?
- Fipster's model gave Fluminense a 95% chance of winning, Gremio a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.