Fluminense vs Flamengo
Match recap
Flamengo beat Fluminense 2–1 in their Serie A fixture. Savarino scored for Fluminense; Pedro and Pedro replied for Flamengo. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.12 for Fluminense versus 2.30 for Flamengo. Fluminense sit 5th in the Serie A table while Flamengo are 2nd.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
3-0 Fluminense win
Actual
1–2
Outcome probability
This clash between Fluminense and Flamengo promises to be a showcase of Fluminense's attacking midfield dominance and home scoring streak. Expect the home side to take control early and maintain pressure throughout.
Match factors
Fluminense's attacking midfield dominance
Fluminense's midfielders like Acosta and Serna have higher assist rates than Flamengo's midfield, aiding their 3-0 predicted win.
Pedro's scoring consistency for Flamengo
Pedro leads Flamengo with 16 goals and consistent scoring form, making him a key threat despite predicted loss.
Fluminense's home scoring streak
Fluminense has scored in 4 of last 5 home games, supporting their predicted 3-0 home win.
Flamengo's creative midfielders Carrascal and Lino
Carrascal and Lino provide high assist and goal threat, but Flamengo's defense may struggle against Fluminense's attack.
No confirmed injuries for either team
Both teams have full squads available, so predicted outcomes rely on form and tactics rather than absences.
The context
Fluminense currently sit 4th in the league with 51 points from 30 games, while Flamengo lead the table with 64 points. Historically, Flamengo have a slight edge in head-to-heads, but recent form and home advantage tilt the scales towards Fluminense.
Key insights
L. Acosta
Fluminense
Leads Fluminense with 5 assists this season, providing key creativity and set-piece delivery from midfield.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 25 appearances, 0.2 assists/game
Pedro
Flamengo
Top scorer for Flamengo with 16 goals, consistent threat despite predicted team loss.
Serie A 26/2716 goals in 30 appearances, 0.53 goals/game
John Kennedy
Fluminense
Fluminense's leading scorer with 9 goals, strong home form boosts scoring chances in this match.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 18 appearances, 0.5 goals/game
K. Serna
Fluminense
Creative midfielder with 4 assists this season, instrumental in Fluminense's attacking play.
Serie A 26/274 assists in 29 appearances, 0.14 assists/game
Analysis
Fluminense's midfielders, particularly L. Acosta and K. Serna, have been instrumental in creating chances, boasting higher assist rates than Flamengo's midfield. Their ability to supply forwards like John Kennedy, who has 9 goals this season, is key. Flamengo's Pedro remains a potent threat with 16 goals, but Fluminense's defence and midfield control are expected to stifle him. Both teams have full squads available, so this match will be decided by tactics and form rather than absences.
Key facts
- 1.Fluminense are 4th in the league with 51 points from 30 games (W14 D9 L7).
- 2.Flamengo lead the league with 64 points from 30 games (W19 D7 L4).
- 3.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Flamengo have won 8, Fluminense 5, with 7 draws.
- 4.Fluminense's L. Acosta has 5 assists this season, leading their midfield creativity.
- 5.Flamengo's Pedro is their top scorer with 16 goals this season.
- 6.Fluminense have scored in 4 of their last 5 home games.
- 7.Both teams have full squads available with no confirmed injuries.
Prediction
We predict a 3-0 victory for Fluminense, with a halftime lead of 1-0. The home side's attacking midfield superiority and consistent home scoring form support this outcome. Flamengo may struggle to break down Fluminense's organised defence and creative playmakers.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Fluminense
Away — Flamengo
The verdict
Fluminense look set to deliver a dominant performance against Flamengo, leveraging their midfield creativity and home advantage to secure a comfortable win. Flamengo will need to regroup quickly after this setback.
Prediction generated 14 Oct 2026, 00:20 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Pedro
Assist: Lino
Acosta
Martinelli
Yellow Card
Pedro
Assist: Lino
Martinelli
John Kennedy
Lino
de Arrascaeta
Plata
Savarino
Pedro
Léo Ortiz
Renê
Xavier
Castillo
Yellow Card
Evertton Araújo
Yellow Card
Araújo
Yellow Card
Bruno Henrique
Yellow Card
Carrascal
Red Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 2 |  Flamengo | 31 | 20 | 7 | 4 | +36 | 67 |
| 3 |  Cruzeiro | 32 | 16 | 6 | 10 | +5 | 54 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
Match Statistics
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 3JemmesD
- 6RenêD
- 8MartinelliM
- 9John KennedyF
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 22J. FreytesD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 35HérculesM
- 90K. SernaM
Substitutes
- 4IgnacioD
- 5F. BernalM
- 10PH GansoM
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 19R. CastilloF
- 23GugaD
- 25AlissonM
- 29J. MillánD
- 94OtávioM
- 98Vitor EudesG
Flamengo
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1A. RossiG
- 2G. VarelaD
- 3Léo OrtizD
- 4Léo PereiraD
- 9PedroF
- 10G. de ArrascaetaM
- 16Samuel LinoM
- 19G. PlataM
- 20Lucas PaquetáM
- 26Alex SandroD
- 52Evertton AraújoM
Substitutes
- 6Ayrton LucasD
- 7Luiz AraújoF
- 13DaniloD
- 15J. CarrascalM
- 18N. de la CruzM
- 22Emerson RoyalD
- 27Bruno HenriqueF
- 42AndrewG
- 44VitãoD
- 49DyogoG
- 64WallaceF
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luciano Acosta | M | 7 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Fabio | G | 98 | 7.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Agustín Canobbio | M | 98 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 2 | 2/3 |
| Hércules | M | 98 | 7.2 | — | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | 0/1 |
| Juan Freytes | D | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Renê | D | 86 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| John Kennedy | F | 65 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 2/5 |
| Samuel Xavier(C) | D | 86 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Martinelli | M | 65 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Jemmes | D | 98 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | 0/1 |
| Kevin Serna | M | 98 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 2/4 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Alisson | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignácio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julián Millán | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Facundo Bernal | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wesley Natã | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefferson Savarino | F | 33 | 8.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 2 | 2 | — |
| Ganso | M | 91 | 6.7 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 0/1 |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guga | D | 12 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | 33 | 5.6 | — | — | 3 | — | — | 0/2 |
Flamengo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Samuel Lino | M | 67 | 8.5 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 4 | 1/2 |
| Pedro | F | 81 | 8.2 | 2 | — | 4 | 3 | 1 | — |
| Lucas Paquetá | M | 98 | 7.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Giorgian De Arrascaeta(C) | M | 73 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 1/1 |
| Evertton Araujo | M | 98 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Gonzalo Plata | M | 73 | 7.2 | — | — | 3 | 3 | 1 | 1/5 |
| Léo Ortiz | D | 81 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Guillermo Varela | D | 98 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Agustín Rossi | G | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Léo Pereira | D | 98 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | — | — |
| Alex Sandro | D | 98 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Emerson Royal | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ayrton Lucas | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitão | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Andrew | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Dyogo Alves | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallace Yan | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Felipe | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Luiz Araújo | F | 17 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo | D | 17 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Nicolás de la Cruz | M | 25 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Bruno Henrique | F | 31 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | — | 1 | — |
| Jorge Carrascal | M | 22 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | 2/2 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Fluminense vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Fluminense to win against Flamengo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Fluminense 3–0 Flamengo.
- What were the win probabilities for Fluminense vs Flamengo?
- Fipster's model gave Fluminense a 89% chance of winning, Flamengo a 5% chance, and a 6% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 89% confidence — a high-confidence call.