Fluminense vs Corinthians
Match recap
Fluminense beat Corinthians 3–1 in their Serie A fixture. John Kennedy, Hércules, and Castillo scored for Fluminense; Andre replied for Corinthians. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.84 for Fluminense versus 0.57 for Corinthians. Fluminense sit 5th in the Serie A table while Corinthians are 17th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Fluminense win
Actual
3–1
Outcome probability
Fluminense and Corinthians face off in the 9th round of the regular season, with Fluminense looking to extend their impressive home form. Corinthians, meanwhile, have struggled to find consistency, especially on the road.
Match factors
Fluminense's attacking midfield trio in form
Savarino, Martinelli, and Acosta show strong recent form and assist potential, key to breaking Corinthians' defense
John Kennedy's scoring consistency
Kennedy leads Fluminense with 9 goals and regular starts, likely to capitalize on home advantage
Corinthians' offensive struggles
Despite Garro's 6 assists, Corinthians have poor recent form and defensive issues, limiting scoring chances
No confirmed absences for either team
Both teams have full squads available, allowing strongest lineups and tactical plans
Fluminense's home dominance expected
Fluminense's strong home scoring rate (1.9 goals/game) and recent wins suggest control over Corinthians
The context
This fixture sees Fluminense, who have a better league standing and goal difference, take on Corinthians. Historically, Fluminense hold a slight edge in their head-to-head meetings, having won 8 of 20 encounters compared to Corinthians' 6 wins and 6 draws.
Key insights
J. Savarino
Fluminense
High recent scoring form with 3 goals in last 5 matches and strong home performance.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 22 apps, 0.27 goals/game
John Kennedy
Fluminense
Team's top scorer with 9 goals this season, consistent starter and key focal point in attack.
Serie A 26/279 goals in 18 apps, 0.5 goals/game
R. Garro
Corinthians
Top assister for Corinthians with 6 assists, but team struggles limit scoring chances.
Serie A 26/276 assists in 27 apps, 0.22 assists/game
Analysis
Fluminense's attacking midfield trio, including J. Savarino, Martinelli, and L. Acosta, have been in fine form, providing creativity and assists crucial to breaking down defenses. John Kennedy, the team's top scorer with 9 goals, is expected to lead the charge. Corinthians have struggled offensively despite R. Garro's 6 assists, and their defensive vulnerabilities make them susceptible to a heavy defeat.
Key facts
- 1.Fluminense have a significantly better league standing and goal difference than Corinthians.
- 2.In 20 head-to-head meetings, Fluminense have won 8, Corinthians 6, with 6 draws.
- 3.Fluminense average 1.9 goals per game at home this season.
- 4.John Kennedy is Fluminense’s top scorer with 9 goals in 18 appearances.
- 5.J. Savarino has scored 3 goals in his last 5 matches, showing strong recent form.
- 6.Corinthians’ top assister is R. Garro with 6 assists this season.
- 7.Fluminense’s midfield trio have been key in creating scoring chances.
- 8.The predicted total number of cards in the match is 4.
Prediction
The prediction is a dominant 4-0 victory for Fluminense. The team’s strong home scoring rate and recent performances suggest they will control the match from start to finish, leaving Corinthians with little chance to respond.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Fluminense
Away — Corinthians
The verdict
Fluminense's combination of form, home advantage, and attacking talent makes them clear favourites to secure a comprehensive win. Corinthians will need to regroup quickly after this one to avoid a slide down the table.
Prediction generated 13 Oct 2026, 23:36 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
John Kennedy
Assist: Serna
Bidu
Yellow Card
Hércules
Charles
Breno
Bidu
Allan
Yellow Card
Acosta
Yellow Card
Allan
Red Card
Andre
Yellow Card
Acosta
Serna
Yuri Alberto
Garro
John Kennedy
Hércules
Castillo
Assist: Martinelli
Martinelli
Andre
Pereira
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 16 |  Internacional | 32 | 8 | 11 | 13 | -4 | 35 |
| 17 |  Corinthians | 32 | 8 | 9 | 15 | -8 | 33 |
| 18 |  Gremio | 31 | 7 | 10 | 14 | -10 | 31 |
Match Statistics
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 3JemmesD
- 6RenêD
- 8MartinelliM
- 9John KennedyF
- 11J. SavarinoM
- 22J. FreytesD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 35HérculesM
- 90K. SernaM
Substitutes
- 4IgnacioD
- 7Y. SoteldoF
- 10PH GansoM
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 14G. CanoF
- 19R. CastilloF
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 23GugaD
- 25AlissonM
- 29J. MillánD
- 94OtávioM
- 98Vitor EudesG
Corinthians
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 2MatheuzinhoD
- 3Gabriel PaulistaD
- 7BrenoM
- 8R. GarroM
- 9Yuri AlbertoF
- 13Gustavo HenriqueD
- 21Matheus BiduD
- 29AllanM
- 35CharlesM
- 49AndreM
- 51Kauê CamargoG
Substitutes
- 4João PedroD
- 5André RamalhoD
- 11VitinhoF
- 18Pedro RaulF
- 20P. MilansD
- 23Matheus PereiraM
- 26F. AngileriD
- 31KaykeF
- 40Felipe LongoG
- 52Z. LabyadF
- 61DieguinhoM
- 77J. LingardM
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Kevin Serna | M | 70 | 7.9 | — | 1 | 2 | 1 | 4 | 2/3 |
| Renê | D | 90 | 7.5 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Hércules | M | 77 | 7.5 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | 1/1 |
| John Kennedy | F | 77 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 5 | 3 | 1 | 2/2 |
| Jemmes | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Luciano Acosta | M | 69 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | — | 2 | 1/1 |
| Fábio | G | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Martinelli | M | 86 | 7.0 | — | 1 | — | — | 2 | 0/1 |
| Juan Freytes | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier(C) | D | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 1 | — |
| Jefferson Savarino | M | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | 1 | 1 | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guga | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignácio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Julián Millán | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Rodrigo Castillo | F | 13 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
| Yeferson Soteldo | F | 20 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Ganso | M | 21 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Germán Cano | F | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Alisson | M | 13 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Corinthians
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| André Luiz | M | 90 | 7.3 | 1 | — | 2 | 1 | — | 0/3 |
| Rodrigo Garro(C) | M | 77 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Kauê | G | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Charles | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/2 |
| Breno Bidon | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/1 |
| Matheus Bidu | D | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Paulista | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | — |
| Matheuzinho | D | 90 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Yuri Alberto | F | 76 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Gustavo Henrique | D | 90 | 5.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 55 | 5.3 | — | — | 1 | 1 | 2 | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Vitinho | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Raul | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| André Ramalho | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kayke Ferrari | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| João Pedro Tchoca | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Felipe Longo | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Pedro Milans | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Zakaria Labyad | F | 14 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 2 | — |
| Fabrizio Angileri | D | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Matheus Pereira | M | 45 | 6.3 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | — |
| Dieguinho | M | 13 | 6.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 1/3 |
| Jesse Lingard | M | 45 | 6.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | — |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Fluminense vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Fluminense to win against Corinthians.
- What score did Fipster predict for Fluminense vs Corinthians?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Fluminense 4–0 Corinthians.
- What were the win probabilities for Fluminense vs Corinthians?
- Fipster's model gave Fluminense a 95% chance of winning, Corinthians a 2% chance, and a 3% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 95% confidence — a high-confidence call.