Fluminense vs Botafogo
Match recap
Fluminense beat Botafogo 1–0 in their Serie A fixture. Acosta scored for Fluminense. Expected-goals data put the chance balance at 1.66 for Fluminense versus 0.32 for Botafogo. Fluminense sit 5th in the Serie A table while Botafogo are 11th.
Fipster’s pre-match call
Predicted
4-0 Fluminense win
Actual
1–0
Outcome probability
Fluminense and Botafogo face off in what promises to be a one-sided affair, with Fluminense's strong league position and goal difference suggesting a dominant performance.
Match factors
Fluminense missing key striker John Kennedy
John Kennedy is confirmed out with a knee injury, removing a primary goal threat
Hulk's strong away scoring form boosts Fluminense attack
Hulk has 6 goals in 10 games with excellent recent away form, key to predicted goals
L. Acosta's creative influence key for Fluminense
Acosta leads Fluminense in assists and contributes goals, driving attacking play
Botafogo's Álvaro Montoro in good creative form
Montoro has 5 assists this season with 2 in last 5 games, vital for Botafogo's attack
Botafogo's defensive stalwart Alexander Barboza to watch
Barboza's defensive contributions and recent form crucial to resist Fluminense attack
The context
Currently sitting 3rd in the league with 51 points from 29 games, Fluminense have demonstrated consistent strength, especially compared to Botafogo's 13th place and 35 points. The two teams have a balanced rivalry historically, but recent form heavily favours Fluminense.
Key insights
Hulk
Fluminense
Hulk’s 6 goals in 10 away games and recent high ratings make him the key threat for Fluminense’s attack.
Serie A 26/276 goals in 10 appearances, 0.6 goals/game
L. Acosta
Fluminense
Acosta’s 5 assists and 5 goals this season highlight his creative influence driving Fluminense’s forward play.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 24 appearances, 0.21 assists/game
Álvaro Montoro
Botafogo
Montoro’s 5 assists this season, including 2 in the last 5 games, are vital for Botafogo’s attacking chances.
Serie A 26/275 assists in 27 appearances, 0.19 assists/game
- A
Alexander Barboza
Botafogo
Barboza’s defensive solidity and recent form are crucial for Botafogo’s resistance against Fluminense’s attack.
Serie A 26/27Strong defensive stats and high recent match ratings
Analysis
Fluminense's attacking threat is spearheaded by Hulk, who boasts 6 goals in 10 away games and has been in excellent recent form. Midfielder L. Acosta's creativity, with 5 assists this season, further bolsters their chances. Botafogo's Álvaro Montoro and defender Alexander Barboza will be key to resisting the onslaught, but the gulf in quality and form is evident.
Key facts
- 1.Fluminense are 3rd in the league with 51 points from 29 games.
- 2.Botafogo sit 13th with 35 points from 29 games.
- 3.Fluminense have a +12 goal difference; Botafogo have -5.
- 4.In 20 meetings, Fluminense have 8 wins, Botafogo 9, with 3 draws.
- 5.Fluminense average 1.76 points per game, Botafogo 1.21.
- 6.Hulk has scored 6 goals in 10 away appearances this season.
- 7.L. Acosta leads Fluminense with 5 assists this season.
- 8.Botafogo's Álvaro Montoro has 5 assists, including 2 in the last 5 games.
Prediction
Expect Fluminense to take control early, leading 2-0 at halftime and extending their advantage to a 4-0 victory by fulltime. The predicted total of 4 cards suggests a competitive but disciplined match.
Player Insights
Standout players Fipster expects to impact the match — curated highlights, not full squad lists
Home — Fluminense
Away — Botafogo
No standout top scorers flagged for Botafogo
The verdict
With Fluminense's superior form, goal difference, and key players firing on all cylinders, Botafogo will struggle to keep the scoreline respectable. This match should underline Fluminense's credentials as a top contender this season.
Prediction generated 11 Oct 2026, 17:36 UTC · Fipster Model v1.163
Form as the teams went into this match — excludes this result and anything since.
Team Comparison
Season shape — attack, defence, form, clean sheets & win rate
Home vs Away comparison
Goal difference in each of the last few fixtures — above the line is a net win, below is a net loss
Season comparison
Goals scored & conceded, goal difference and clean sheets across the season
Halftime Performance
What each side does once the whistle goes for half time
Streaks
Recent-form runs — each side’s most-recent game meets in the middle
Head to Head
Xavier
Yellow Card
Ythallo
Yellow Card
Allan
Canobbio
Yellow Card
Montoro
Yellow Card
Ythallo
Acosta
Canobbio
Red Card
Card upgrade
Acosta
Yellow Card
Telles
Xavier
Acosta
Guga
Yellow Card
Artur
Vitinho
Newton
Yellow Card
John Kennedy
Serna
Freytes
Yellow Card
| # | Team | P | W | D | L | GD | Pts |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 |  Palmeiras | 32 | 20 | 9 | 3 | +34 | 69 |
| 4 |  Atletico Paranaense | 32 | 15 | 9 | 8 | +12 | 54 |
| 5 |  Fluminense | 31 | 14 | 9 | 8 | +10 | 51 |
| 6 |  Atletico-MG | 31 | 14 | 8 | 9 | +7 | 50 |
| 10 |  RB Bragantino | 32 | 11 | 8 | 13 | +1 | 41 |
| 11 |  Botafogo | 32 | 10 | 9 | 13 | -7 | 39 |
| 12 |  Coritiba | 31 | 10 | 9 | 12 | -11 | 39 |
Match Statistics
Fluminense
4-2-3-1Starting XI
- 1FábioG
- 2Samuel XavierD
- 3JemmesD
- 5F. BernalM
- 6RenêD
- 8MartinelliM
- 9John KennedyF
- 17A. CanobbioM
- 22J. FreytesD
- 32L. AcostaM
- 90K. SernaM
Substitutes
- 4IgnacioD
- 7Y. SoteldoF
- 10PH GansoM
- 11J. SavarinoF
- 13Guilherme AranaD
- 21Igor RabelloD
- 23GugaD
- 30S. MorenoF
- 35HérculesM
- 94OtávioM
- 98Vitor EudesG
Botafogo
3-4-3Starting XI
- 2VitinhoM
- 3YthalloD
- 7ArturF
- 8Danilo SantosM
- 10Álvaro MontoroF
- 13Alex TellesM
- 19Arthur CabralF
- 20A. BarbozaD
- 22NetoG
- 25AllanM
- 28NewtonD
Substitutes
- 11Matheus MartinsF
- 14J. BarreraM
- 16Nathan FernandesF
- 24Léo LinckG
- 34G. JustinoM
- 36Gabriel AbdiasD
- 37K. BarriaF
- 42Kadu SantosD
- 48Arthur NovaesM
- 55Wallace IIM
- 59Kauan ToledoM
- 77L. VillalbaF
Fluminense
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Luciano Acosta | M | 74 | 8.2 | 1 | — | 1 | 1 | 3 | 3/4 |
| Kevin Serna | M | 89 | 7.9 | — | — | 2 | 1 | — | 3/6 |
| Fábio | G | 90 | 7.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Martinelli | M | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 2/3 |
| Renê | D | 90 | 7.2 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Jemmes | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Juan Freytes | D | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Samuel Xavier(C) | D | 74 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 3 | 0/2 |
| Facundo Bernal | M | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| John Kennedy | F | 87 | 6.3 | — | — | 3 | 2 | — | 0/2 |
| Agustín Canobbio | M | 60 | 5.9 | — | — | 2 | — | — | 2/2 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Ganso | M | 1 | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Reis | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Santiago Moreno | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Otávio | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Yeferson Soteldo | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Igor Rabello | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jefferson Savarino | F | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Ignácio | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Vitor Eudes | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guilherme Arana | D | 16 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Hércules | M | 11 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Guga | D | 16 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
Botafogo
| Player | Pos | Min | Rating | G | A | Shots | SoT | Key Passes | Dribbles |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| Alexander Barboza | D | 90 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | — | 0/2 |
| Vitinho | M | 82 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Cabral | F | 90 | 6.9 | — | — | 1 | 1 | — | 0/1 |
| Artur | F | 82 | 6.9 | — | — | 2 | 2 | — | 1/1 |
| Alex Telles(C) | M | 69 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
| Neto | G | 90 | 6.7 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Danilo | M | 90 | 6.6 | — | — | 2 | — | 1 | 1/1 |
| Ythallo | D | 45 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Álvaro Montoro | F | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/6 |
| Newton | D | 90 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Allan | M | 24 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Substitutes | |||||||||
| Léo Linck | G | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kauan Toledo | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Wallace Davi | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Justino | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Gabriel Da Silva Abdias | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Arthur Novaes | M | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kadu Santos | D | — | — | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Jordan Barrera | M | 66 | 7.0 | — | — | — | — | 1 | — |
| Nathan Fernandes | F | 45 | 6.9 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Kadir Barría | F | 8 | 6.6 | — | — | — | — | — | — |
| Matheus Martins | F | 21 | 6.5 | — | — | — | — | — | 1/1 |
| Lucas Villalba | F | 8 | 6.3 | — | — | — | — | 1 | 0/1 |
Prediction Q&A
- Who did Fipster predict to win Fluminense vs Botafogo?
- Fipster's AI model predicted Fluminense to win against Botafogo.
- What score did Fipster predict for Fluminense vs Botafogo?
- Fipster predicted a final score of Fluminense 4–0 Botafogo.
- What were the win probabilities for Fluminense vs Botafogo?
- Fipster's model gave Fluminense a 91% chance of winning, Botafogo a 4% chance, and a 5% chance of a draw.
- How confident was Fipster in this prediction?
- Fipster's model assigned this prediction 91% confidence — a high-confidence call.